This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
After a rather lengthy hiatus from fantasy football analysis, I'm back to start and finish a journey to find which fantasy football stats are relevant and irrelevant. I have gotten to the point where I know what is and isn't useful in fantasy baseball, which has helped me win my Tout Wars league last season and accumulate a decent lead this season. It's time to focus on football.
I want to systematically separate the grain from the chaff. There are a ton of football narratives floating around but few hardcore facts. It'll be a slow but worthwhile journey to get a better understanding of what to and not to believe.
I have little to no football player knowledge. I can rattle off 25-man baseball rosters and know each team's top-30 prospects but would have a tough time naming 15 running backs. I'm not going to analyze week-to-week playing time battles. Instead, I'm going to focus on the meta-analysis projections. No gut feelings here. Sorry.
While I know football projections won't work exactly like they do in baseball, the same theories apply such as sample size, correlation, regression and playing time. Once the basics are known, the effects other variables (game line, opposing defense, complementary players) have can be slowly incorporated.
Besides looking into the player projections, I want to look into some game theory like which players are most likely to be replaced and when in a draft is it better to take a chance on upside versus