This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
When estimating the opportunities, I found three measurable options:
1. Using the Vegas gambling lines on total points scored and team spread.
2. Last season's pass attempts per game.
3. This season's pass attempts per game.
Besides the individual measures, I figured some combination of values would work best as the season progress. With it being the season's first week, in-season data can't be used so I will ignore it. Next week, I will compare my results to the standard RotoWire projections and then add the in-season data to Week 2's projections.
Also, I have no method to create a projection for Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. I will just have to ignore him for now.
To start with, I looked at the how the total points and spread help to estimate the number of pass attempts. The first part of the theory is simple, the more the points a team is projected to score, the more pass attempts and touchdowns for the team. Also, if the point spread is close in these high-scoring games, teams will keep passing to win. If a team is heavily favored, it is more likely to run the ball more to run out the clock.