The Stats Room: Week 1 QB Projections
The Stats Room: Week 1 QB Projections

This article is part of our The Stats Room series.

With my basic quarterback projections available for this season, I will move onto the hardest part of football projections, playing time. I'll start with quarterbacks because their opportunities are the most consistent, if they're playing. Their opportunity estimates could be reasonably estimated, but the final values heavily regressed.

When estimating the opportunities, I found three measurable options:

1. Using the Vegas gambling lines on total points scored and team spread.
2. Last season's pass attempts per game.
3. This season's pass attempts per game.

Besides the individual measures, I figured some combination of values would work best as the season progress. With it being the season's first week, in-season data can't be used so I will ignore it. Next week, I will compare my results to the standard RotoWire projections and then add the in-season data to Week 2's projections.

Also, I have no method to create a projection for Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. I will just have to ignore him for now.

To start with, I looked at the how the total points and spread help to estimate the number of pass attempts. The first part of the theory is simple, the more the points a team is projected to score, the more pass attempts and touchdowns for the team. Also, if the point spread is close in these high-scoring games, teams will keep passing to win. If a team is heavily favored, it is more likely to run the ball more to run out the clock.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Zimmerman writes analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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