The Stats Room: Week 2 QB Projections
The Stats Room: Week 2 QB Projections

This article is part of our The Stats Room series.

I've been working my way through basic football projections and last week was the first time I could put them to the test. While I only did quarterbacks and it was a horrible week for quarterback play, the results are encouraging. Besides looking back on the past results, I will post the basic rookie quarterback rates and next week's projections.

For evaluating last week's projections, we will use the total number of points in which the standard RotoWire and my projections were off. Additionally, I just took the average of all the projected values (15.8 points) and saw how far they were off.

When I posted the projections last week, I inserted the projected RotoWire points but later discovered it uses 0.05 points per pass yard. With most owners using 0.04 points per yard passing, I had to recalculated the values.

For reference, I had two systems for estimating pass attempts, the Vegas line and previous season attempts. I found the previous season attempts to be most accurate. I use a final hybrid model that uses the Vegas line value if the quarterback threw very little or none in the previous season.

I compared the average amount each value was off from the actual results and the standard deviation for the differences. The total will show an overall accuracy while the standard deviation will show grouped up are the final differences.

For example, if one system was off zero points for 16 quarterbacks and 14 for the other

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Zimmerman writes analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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