This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
For evaluating last week's projections, we will use the total number of points in which the standard RotoWire and my projections were off. Additionally, I just took the average of all the projected values (15.8 points) and saw how far they were off.
When I posted the projections last week, I inserted the projected RotoWire points but later discovered it uses 0.05 points per pass yard. With most owners using 0.04 points per yard passing, I had to recalculated the values.
For reference, I had two systems for estimating pass attempts, the Vegas line and previous season attempts. I found the previous season attempts to be most accurate. I use a final hybrid model that uses the Vegas line value if the quarterback threw very little or none in the previous season.
I compared the average amount each value was off from the actual results and the standard deviation for the differences. The total will show an overall accuracy while the standard deviation will show grouped up are the final differences.
For example, if one system was off zero points for 16 quarterbacks and 14 for the other