The Stats Room: Week 3 QB Projections
The Stats Room: Week 3 QB Projections

This article is part of our The Stats Room series.

Projections are hard. The more I try to improve them, the further I seem to get from a workable solution. I've found many ideas which don't pan out. If I sound frustrated, I am but I will continue to determine what's useful and what isn't. I have my quarterback projection results and the ones for the next week. Additionally, I've included wide receiver projections for the first time.

Week 1 was a mess with quarterbacks showing inconsistent play with the average projection being off by 6.5 points. This week, the values are down to 4.7 points off. The projections sort of felt like projections. Here are the results from week two.

PLAYERVEGAS LINEPASS ATTHYBRIDROTOWIREAVGACTUALHYBRID DIFFROTOWIRE DIFFAVG DIFF
Aaron Rodgers 20.0 20.3 20.3 22.4 16.0 18.5 1.8 3.9 2.5
Alex Smith 18.6 17.2 17.2 14.1 16.0 16.1 1.1 2.0 0.1
Andy Dalton 16.5 17.5 17.5 16.9 16.0 9.5 8.0 7.5 6.6
Ben Roethlisberger 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.9 16.0 17.5 1.0 0.7 1.5
Blake Bortles 15.9 17.5 17.5 13.4 16.0 9.8 7.7 3.6 6.2
Brian Hoyer 14.0 15.0 15.0 9.5 16.0 2.0 13.1 7.5 14.1
Jacoby Brissett 16.6 10.9 16.6 11.6 16.0 8.8 7.7 2.8 7.2
Cam Newton 18.4 18.5 18.5 19.8 16.0 11.8 6.7 8.0 4.2
Carson Palmer 15.1 17.0 17.0 15.1 16.0 15.9 1.1 0.7 0.1
Carson Wentz 15.4 16.4 16.4 14.5 16.0 24.8 8.5 10.4 8.8
Dak Prescott 18.1 15.9 15.9 18.2 16.0 15.9 0.0 2.3 0.1
Derek Carr
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Zimmerman writes analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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