Best Ball Strategy: Now the Endgame

The last day to sign up for eight-hour slow drafts in MFL10s is 8/26, and four-hour slow drafts will stop recurring on 8/30. This will therefore be the last entry in this series for this year. With twilight being the general theme, I'll look at options at the end of best ball drafts – let's say the 14th round or later – that I'll be looking to buy before the best ball deadline. I'll list three each at RB, WR, and TE

The players are first grouped by position, then sorted by descending ADP. The ADP cited is from MFL10s from 8/10 onward.

Spencer Ware, RB, KC (204.05)

The Chiefs cut Charcandrick West, seemingly indicating a strong endorsement of Ware as he tries to bounce back from last year's brutal knee injury. That the Chiefs signed Damien and Kerwynn Williams in free agency was initially a dark cloud over Ware's projection, but perhaps West's release indicates the Chiefs no longer feel anxious about Ware's recovery.

If recovered, Ware is basically overqualified as a backup to Kareem Hunt. Hunt is far too good to take off the field except for blowouts and whenever he might need a breather, but it's still worth noting this. Ware has already proven his ability to start in the NFL, which gives him more upside than most handcuff picks.

While Hunt is an awesome running back and one clearly a level or two better than Ware, those who followed Hunt's career at Toledo will recall a history of lower-body injuries, especially to his ankle but including his hamstring, quad, and foot. No such issues in Hunt's rookie year, but he missed time in each of his first three seasons at Toledo.

Jeremy Hill, RB, NE (204.58)

Hill isn't an exciting player, but we need to recall the dispensability of the running back position and the overruling context of the New England offense when calculating his range of outcomes. This offense made LeGarrette Blount an RB1, so someone like Hill can ride that same wave to real production if he gets on the field.

Rex Burkhead had his limitations to begin with, but adding his knee ligament sprain to a backfield already regrouping from Sony Michel's knee procedure leaves the Patriots even thinner at running back to start the year. Mike Gillislee does not appear a serious candidate after faceplanting last year, and James White can only do so much, especially given the potential need for him to offset the absence of Julian Edelman in the passing game in the first month.

Jonathan Williams, RB, NO (239.45)

It wasn't long ago that both Williams and Alex Collins looked like NFL busts following their memorable careers at Arkansas, but how things have changed since. Collins looks like one of the league's top runners heading into this year, and how quickly some forget that Williams was the even better player at Arkansas.

Williams (6-feet, 220 pounds) finished his Arkansas career with 2,321 yards (5.7 YPC) and 16 touchdowns while catching 26 passes for 345 yards and six scores before missing his senior season with a broken foot. Collins posted 3,703 yards (5.6 YPC) and 36 touchdowns to go with 27 receptions for 167 yards.

Williams is in any case intriguing because by all accounts he is closing in on the RB3 role in New Orleans, making him the default power back while Mark Ingram is suspended. Sean Payton has given Ingram a short leash in the past, and Williams may prove good enough to merit a workload even when Ingram comes back. Williams has notably received high praise from Drew Brees for his pass-blocking work, which could allow the Saints to get Williams and Alvin Kamara on the field at the same time while the latter splits out wide.

John Brown, WR, BAL (170.84)

Brown often goes earlier than this – often because I'm the one picking him – but it looks like in most drafts you can still get Brown for cheap despite the consistent buzz he's generated in Baltimore training camp.

The deal with Brown is simple: if he's healthy, he's one of the best receivers in the league, but we don't know if his sickle cell trait will doom him to recurring tissue injuries. So far, knock on wood, it hasn't been an issue in Baltimore. The result has been consistently impressive play from Brown, who's undoubtedly the team's best deep threat and might even be Joe Flacco's favorite target generally.

While Flacco and the Ravens offense at large are hardly desirable at a glance, Brown's floor and upside both are boosted significantly by the structure of the Marty Morninwheg offense, which is both among the most uptempo and pass-heavy in the league. Top corner Jimmy Smith facing a four-game suspension will only help the odds of Baltimore airing it out.

Mike Wallace, WR, PHI (185.34)

Wallace may be aging a bit, but he's coming off consecutive seasons of over eight yards per target in Joe Flacco offenses – a distinction very few wide receivers could secure in such a bleak setting. Alshon Jeffery might be a bit rusty following his rotator cuff surgery, and Nelson Agholor has been out of practice since August 11 with a lower body issue.

There could be a real target void in the machine-like Philadelphia offense, and Wallace has already shown the ability to produce in bad situations. What can he do with a good one? You can find out for a rather low cost.

John Ross, WR, CIN (194.70)

Brandon LaFell saw 89 targets last year, and that was with the Bengals offense proving uncharacteristically bad. The year prior he saw 107 targets. There were even 81 targets left over for Tyler Boyd that year.

The collapse of the offensive line took the rest of the offense with it last year, resulting in what will hopefully prove an aberrational decline. Billy Price at center and Cordy Glenn at left tackle does a lot to alleviate concerns of a recurrence.

So let's return to Ross, the ninth overall pick with 4.22 speed who scored 17 touchdowns in 13 games his final season at Washington. Let's make sure to understand that he was a bust last year due to two separate shoulder injuries, one season-ending, as well as a knee issue. Let's consider what might happen if his injury luck improves.

If Ross sees 100 targets he will be a candidate to go over 1,000 yards. If defensive coordinators order their safeties to sit on A.J. Green's routes, Ross will run faster than whoever is left on him in single coverage. There is real upside here. There is also profound injury risk – neither Ross' shoulders nor knees appear long for this league – but he's an extremely talented player with easy access to a workload that vastly outpaces his ADP. His upside for his price range is incomparable.

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, ARZ (185.88)

Seals-Jones' offseason arrest doesn't strike me as a big deal, so I'd be surprised if he's suspended more than a game or two. When he's on the field, in any case, I think he presents high upside for his price.

Seals-Jones (6-foot-5, 243 pounds) is a former five-star wide receiver recruit, so his pass-catching skill set is naturally advanced by tight end standards, and while he'll never project as a traditional in-line tight end he showed real potential last year as a bully wideout who matches up with linebackers or smaller corners. I recall that one of his touchdowns last year was even against Houston's Kevin Johnson, a boundary corner.

Larry Fitzgerald will of course get a heavy target volume, and rookie second-round pick Christian Kirk is impressive by all accounts. David Johnson also projects for a big target count. Aside from those three, though, RSJ might most easily project for targets, and he stands out from the rest of the group for his red-zone potential. Seals-Jones' big frame in single coverage could be Arizona's best option in that part of the field, because as great as Fitz is he isn't separating from anyone, and he can't quite push someone around the way RSJ can at his bigger build.

RSJ saw 28 targets on 132 snaps last year. That rate is comically unsustainable, but it speaks to the upside the previous coaching staff saw in Seals-Jones. Hopefully Steve Wilks and Mike McCoy reach a similar conclusion.

Jake Butt, TE, DEN (225.01)

Funny name aside, Butt is a legitimate starting tight end prospect, and one who would have gone much earlier than the fifth round of the 2017 draft if he hadn't suffered a torn ACL late in the 2016 season. While he's not believed to be a high-upside sort of prospect – his speed is believed to be in the 4.7 40 range – but he showed an advanced pass-catching skill set at Michigan, and his ability to play in-line is reassuring for his ability to stay on the field as much as possible.

Butt (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) caught 68.7 percent of his targets as a senior, yielding 46 receptions for 546 yards and four touchdowns at 8.2 yards per target. That means he easily outpaced Michigan's team completion percentage of 61.6 and 7.5 yards per target. That's an encouraging sign.

Now he steps into a likely starting role for a Denver team that just got a big quarterback upgrade in Case Keenum. Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Courtland Sutton will demand many targets for sure, capping Butt's upside, but this might be alleviated somewhat by Denver's defensive decline after sending away Aqib Talib. For the record, I still prefer the next guy on this list.

Luke Willson, TE, DET (226.07)

It appears I've been screaming into the void all this time, as Willson's ADP has somehow fallen in MFL10s even as he's tightened his grip on the starting tight end role in Detroit. Levine Toilolo is just a blocker, and the other supposed threat to Willson, second-year tight end Michael Roberts, has struggled with durability and reportedly has failed to distinguish himself otherwise.

I get the fear with Willson – he will at best be the fourth-most targeted player in the Detroit offense behind Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay, and there's a real chance he has fewer targets than Theo Riddick, too. But when a player is as cheap as Willson has been all offseason, then he doesn't need to clear a high bar to hit value. As I mentioned last week, I often see people taking backup tight ends (Vernon Davis and Tyler Kroft) ahead of Willson, as well as one guy who isn't even signed (Antonio Gates).

Willson has 4.5 speed at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds. He has a career YPT of 8.24 and a catch rate of 65.0 percent. The Lions offense last year threw 119 targets to tight ends, and between the likelihood that Matt Patricia demands higher tempo and dictates more tight end emphasis, both consistent with the Belichick approach, that figure is unlikely to fall. Eric Ebron saw 86 targets last year in 552 snaps. That's a high per-snap rate, especially for the price. I feel like I'm going crazy on this one – I just can't grasp what anyone is looking at.