This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
Brandon Marshall struggled to catch passes the last two seasons, catching only 46 percent in 2016 and 54 percent last season. He now plays for the Seahawks where Russell Wilson had completion rates at 64 and 61 percent the same two seasons. So, what should owners estimate as the pair's completion percentage this season?
The answer is obviously in the middle somewhere, but should the quarterback or wide receiver have more influence? By using some basic projections, the split works out to 50/50 with the wide receiver having a slight edge.
First, I'm amazed there isn't a go-to knowledge source for the balance point. With so many new pairings each season, a simple rule of thumb should exist. It seems like fantasy owners would just prefer to pick the narrative that fits their agenda. I'm here to put a few numbers behind the narratives.
My conclusion is a little surprising as most articles and talking heads I consume always point to the quarterback's stats. Recently, I ran a Twitter poll and resoundingly, the quarterback side got more weight.
With so many wide receivers changing teams, fantasy owners have little idea of how the new receivers will produce. By using my quarterback projections and wide receiver projections, I
If a quarterback has a 3-year 62% Comp% and the team adds a WR with a 3-year comp% of 72%. What would you expect the pair's comp% to be in the upcoming season?— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 15, 2018