Job Battles: Enough Room in Town

This series will group the addressed job battles first by position, then sort by descending fantasy significance of recent developments.

Quarterback

Jameis Winston over Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB

Winston still threw two interceptions, and Tampa's problems Sunday were more related to their defense than anything within Fitzpatrick's control, but the Buccaneers understandably saw the loss as an opportunity to shift the offense back to the quarterback who was supposed to be their foundation all along. Even if you think Winston is worse than Fitzpatrick, there's still ample reason to expect a huge finish to the year for Winston in the 12 remaining games. Todd Monken still has this offense worlds better than it used to be, and the surplus of pass-catching talent that helped Fitzpatrick overachieve will simply be to Winston's benefit now.

Running back

Alex Collins vs. Javorius Allen, BAL

Instead of holding on to the ball and allowing his clearly superior production as a runner and pass catcher to steadily tighten his grip on a lead back role in Baltimore, Collins somehow coughed up yet another fumble against Pittsburgh on Sunday, and this time at the goal line. Collins' workload concerns were specifically related to goal-line carries, so it's a tremendous choke on his part to drop the ball in that particular scenario.

If the Ravens have any competitive ambitions this year then they should seriously consider adding a running back. Allen only gets the work he does because he doesn't fumble. He is borderline useless as a runner and receiver from scrimmage otherwise. If his utility is merely in holding on to the ball, then the Ravens can easily find another player for whom that's also true, and odds are that this hypothetical player – no matter who it is! – would also be a better runner and receiver than Allen.

I'm still banking on Collins holding his act together well enough to let his considerable running skills shine through, but I'd be worried about both of these guys in the long term. They are incredibly replaceable.

Jordan Howard vs. Tarik Cohen, CHI

Cohen caught fire against Tampa on Sunday, running for 53 yards on 13 carries while turning eight targets into seven receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown. That largely occurred at the expense of Howard, who ran for just 25 yards on 11 carries and saw only one target, but that outcome might have occurred mostly because Cohen's quickness and speed presented a better means of exploiting the massive space conceded by the Buccaneers defense. In a more typical setting, Howard probably gets leaned on more.

I think Chicago's showing against Tampa is actually a reason for optimism with both runners going forward. The greater story here was the emergence of Mitch Trubisky as a hopefully viable starting quarterback. If Trubisky can keep moving the chains and getting the Bears into scoring range, Howard will absolutely progress to the mean in that scenario.

Kerryon Johnson vs. LeGarrette Blount, DET

Johnson started for Detroit and got almost all of the initial work, but Blount's presence remained a complication against Dallas. That limited Johnson to 55 yards and a touchdown despite seeing just nine carries, while Blount totaled just 12 yards on seven carries. It's safe to say that Blount is the only thing standing the way of Johnson breaking out as a fantasy asset, and Blount is seemingly on the ropes, but it's not clear how soon he might be fully overthrown.

Aaron Jones vs. Ty Montgomery vs. Jamaal Williams, GB

Every carry for Jones is catnip to those longing for a new star at running back, and he only strengthened his case for more work against Buffalo on Sunday, when he ran for 65 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries while Williams plodded to just 27 yards on 11 carries. Montgomery, meanwhile, ran for 18 yards on five carries while turning three targets into two receptions for 56 yards.

The game highlighted the upsides of Jones and Montgomery while zooming in on the inadequacies of Williams. Williams earned his incumbency only through the durability troubles of the other two, but they're both healthy right now. That Williams is a superior pass blocker to the other two is a utility that any fullback can imitate, but you'll see no offense in a rush to found their offense on a fullback.

Williams quite simply needs to produce more on the ground, or even Mike McCarthy will eventually get the memo that Williams belongs as a backup who plays if Jones or Montgomery get hurt, not because of a presumption that they will get hurt.

Mike Davis vs. Chris Carson vs. Rashaad Penny, SEA

An out-of-nowhere scratch shortly before Sunday's game against Arizona, Carson (hip) was replaced in the starting lineup with Davis, a former fifth-round pick and NFL journeyman of four years, instead of the first-round rookie Penny. Davis seized the opportunity, running for 101 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries while securing four targets for 23 yards.

Penny still ran for 49 yards on nine carries, though, and looked noticeably faster and more elusive than Davis. I think it's safe to say that Penny's struggles were almost entirely attributable to his weight gain which, while ridiculous, appears to be a fading concern. After adding 16 pounds of bad weight before training camp, Penny unsurprisingly failed to distinguish himself in that state. But if Penny is around 220 pounds instead of 236, then he's the same guy who ran for 2,248 yards (7.8 YPC) and 23 touchdowns in 13 games last year. It's objectively true that Carson and Davis could not in any physical state do what Penny did at San Diego State.

So when I see Penny moving like that, and when I recall that Davis' NFL career saw him run for just 351 yards on 125 carries (2.8 YPC) prior to Sunday, I feel like it's easy to tell which way the wind is blowing. Nothing in Davis' profile says he can sustain what he showed Sunday, which not coincidentally occurred against the NFL's most dysfunctional team. That Davis matched the utility that Carson ever showed is a testament to Carson's own vulnerability, in my opinion. If Penny keeps improving the shape he's in, the tide will turn violently in his favor.

The Seahawks will get butchered against the Rams this week, so no Seattle runner is likely to do anything useful, and they play Oakland after that. I can imagine Davis or/and Carson maintaining some traction through that game, but not through the Week 7 bye. That's just me, though.

Nyheim Hines vs. Jordan Wilkins vs. Marlon Mack, IND

Andrew Luck obviously won't throw the ball 64 times most weeks, and Hines has just 54 yards and a touchdown on his 18 carries this year, but the rookie fourth-round pick could be on the upswing after catching nine of 11 targets against Houston for 63 yards and two touchdowns. He's on pace for 104 targets this year, and he should stay involved at least another game with T.Y. Hilton looking doubtful for a Week 5 game against the Patriots.

Wilkins remained the lead pure runner against the Texans, but his eight carries went for only 16 yards, giving him 136 on 38 carries for the year (3.6 YPC). When Mack (hamstring) and Robert Turbin (suspension) return, Wilkins might fade fully into the background.

Ronald Jones vs. Peyton Barber, TB

The Tampa Bay run game has been a zero all year, but generally an offense cannot score as many points as the Buccaneers likely will without some running back stumbling into production. Whoever holds the lead runner role going forward will likely offer something.

Barber did nothing inspiring in the first three weeks, plodding to 124 yards on 43 carries while Jones was a healthy scratch. Even Dirk Koetter, ever the buffoon when it comes to talent evaluation, evidently reached something of a limit with Barber's ineffectiveness after Week 3. Not only was Jones active against Chicago on Sunday, his 10 carries led the team while Barber finished with seven.

Jones' 29 yards in that setting were not impressive, of course, but the Bears have one of the league's top defenses, and Barber's 24 yards otherwise did nothing to build his leash. Although the Buccaneers have a Week 5 bye, I think Jones is pretty clearly a must-add in 12-team leagues just in case Barber fades further.

Wide receiver

Keke Coutee joins Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins in HOU

This is not a battle so much as it's an arrival on the part of Coutee. There's no need for Hopkins or Fuller to falter for Coutee to get usage that pays off for his fantasy owners. I think he should be owned in most or all 12-team leagues, and his dynasty stock is pointed skyward, too.

Prior to Sunday, 12 of Deshaun Watson's 106 passes headed toward Bruce Ellington, and that was an obvious drain on the offense. Coutee and his 4.4 speed debuted against the Colts after a hamstring issue kept him out the first three weeks, and his 15 targets are a testament to how desperate Watson was for a viable third target. That Coutee caught 11 for 109 yards is very encouraging about his trajectory going forward. He's presumably still raw in his development at 21 years old, yet he showed an instant knack for working with Watson. With the Rams and Lions showing a sustainable blueprint for a three-receiver offense, you have to expect Hopkins-Fuller-Coutee to threaten something similar by 2019, or maybe even sooner.

It looks like Coutee will function as the slot security blanket while Fuller guns for the safeties and Hopkins works everywhere in between, usually drawing two defenders as he does so. The Houston pass defense looks bad once again, furthermore, so Watson should continue to find himself in settings where he needs to lean on all three receivers.

Tight end

Maxx Williams vs. Nick Boyle vs. Mark Andrews vs. Hayden Hurst, BAL

Williams, Boyle, and Andrews all rotated stints of fantasy relevance over the first four weeks, buoyed by Joe Flacco's mostly unsustainable pass attempt volume, and now Hurst nears his debut after the first-round pick suffered a foot injury in training camp. Even if Flacco's pass attempt volume declines going forward, there should be an opportunity for a fantasy factor at tight end if one of the candidates can hold off the other three.

Hurst would be considered a conventional favorite as a first-round pick, but between his injury and dubious prospect profile, not to mention the underrated pedigree of Williams (a former second-round pick) and Andrews (a 2018 third-round pick), I think it might be surprisingly difficult for Hurst to get his foot in the door this year. So I personally wouldn't bet on him to take this.

Boyle's blocking ability makes him the snap leader of the group, though his 5.0-second 40-yard dash limits his pass-catching utility. His presence is similar to someone like Jesse James, or a slower Jack Doyle. I think his usage in the first four weeks will likely go down as his highest in any four-week stretch in his Baltimore career. Still, he'll probably play something like at least 25 plays per game indefinitely.

Even with Boyle locked into that block-heavy role, the Ravens run enough two-tight end sets that there could be room for one of Williams, Andrews, or Hurst to make an impact as a pass catcher. It was Williams who did it against Pittsburgh on Sunday, playing 41 snaps to Boyle's 56 while turning five targets into five catches for 51 yards. That leaves Williams with 12 catches for 119 yards on 12 targets in three games. Andrews has 10 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets, but played only 26 snaps against Pittsburgh, so he seems like the main candidate to decline with Hurst's arrival.

That this situation is so blurry and tenuous means Williams, Andrews, and Hurst are only of interest in 2TE leagues or leagues with at least 14 teams, but I think this is the next situation to monitor for those in need of tight end help. If I had to bet now, I'd pick Williams to settle in as a 45-snap, 5-to-6 target sort of tight end within a month. Williams is in his fourth season yet he's still younger than Hurst, and most other objective indicators single out Williams (and Andrews!) as a better prospect than Hurst. If nothing else, Hurst's foot and newness to the offense could serve as cover for a decision to roll with Williams the rest of the year, though I think that'd be the merit-based outcome, too.