Job Battles: Tevin Tumbling

Quarterbacks

Case Keenum vs. Chad Kelly, DEN

To be clear Keenum is by all accounts the clear starter for this team, and coach Vance Joseph has shown no inclination to question that standing. For people in 2QB leagues, though, the situation in Denver might be reaching a point where it's time to at least monitor developments at a safe distance as a vulture would. Denver just hasn't been competitive with Keenum at quarterback, and much of the production he's offered was either in non-competitive situations or otherwise proved irrelevant for the outcome of the game. Through six starts Keenum is piling up big yardage (1,687 yards), but his touchdown percentage of 3.0 is brutal, especially considering he has more interceptions (eight) than passing touchdowns (seven).

It was probably a bit unfair to Keenum, but the Denver crowd singled him out as the lightning rod for their ire, booing his presence while cheering for Chad Kelly when he knelt at the end of the first half while Keenum briefly left the field for injury. No matter what Joseph or the Broncos coaches hope to do with Keenum and Allen, the political pressure of the fans is a variable that could cause some real tension.

Running Backs

Jordan Howard vs. Tarik Cohen, CHI

Howard should still lay claim to a few big box scores before the end of the year, but he's shown over the last two games that it can't be taken for granted that he'll produce even when Chicago puts up points. Given that five games have come and gone already, it's probably safe to say that Howard's owners won't get what they paid for even if he picks up some steam from here.

But again, that possibility of improvement can't be assumed. The Bears scored 76 points over their last two games, but Howard concluded them with just 25 carries for 94 yards, zero catches on two targets, and one lost goal-line fumble. Moreover, Mitch Trubisky's two biggest games correlated to escalated usage for Cohen, and the number one concern of any coach is maximizing the success of their franchise quarterback. Trubisky might not be that much in terms of earned reputation, but the Bears are invested to the point that they have to regard him as the team's most important offensive asset.

If there's good news for Howard it's that he's probably not capable of much worse than the last five games. He's yet to break off a 20-yard run on 78 carries this year after posting 15 in his first 528 carries before this year. You'd also expect him two have at least two rushing touchdowns based on his pre-2018 production rates, yet he has only one.

Cohen, in any case, is really surging upward. There's a good chance that it's no coincidence that Trubisky's two breakout games occurred as Cohen accumulated 295 yards from scrimmage. If Trubisky is more complete with Cohen on the field, then Matt Nagy may need to investigate giving Cohen more work, which would generally come at Howard's expense.

Marlon Mack vs. Nyheim Hines vs. Jordan Wilkins, IND

Perhaps Mack will lay claim to this backfield yet. Finally making what feels like his real 2018 debut after attempting to return from his preseason hamstring injury too early in Week 2, Mack needed only 12 carries to total 89 yards against the Jets, and with that he's averaging 5.6 yards per carry while Wilkins averages 4.0 and Hines 3.1. Mack's arrival would seem to all but remove Wilkins from the offense.

Hines will still have some pass-catching role, but there's a good chance he's inferior to Mack in this regard, as well. Hines is perhaps a more legitimate pass-catching threat than Mack when lined up wide, but out of the backfield Mack might be just as good or better. Despite his pass-catching volume, Hines is only averaging 4.9 yards per target on 38 targets, whereas Mack averaged 6.8 yards per target on 33 targets as a rookie last year despite very few pass-catching reps at South Florida.

I think Mack is someone worth paying up for in FAAB, especially if you're desperate anyway. There's a strong likelihood that he'll emerge as Indy's clear runner if his health cooperates, and I think people underestimate the threat he can pose as a pass catcher.

Peyton Barber vs. Ronald Jones, TB

Barber remained Tampa Bay's clear starting running back against Atlanta, and he played well enough in that game that he might have earned himself more leash in the process. It's not especially impressive that Barber managed to total 106 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage against the injury-ravaged Falcons defense, but it's more impressive than Jones' 19 yards. Moreover, it's clear that Jones' 10 carries against the Bears in Week 4 was due to the blowout context. For now at least, the Buccaneers consider Barber their sole running back option for competitive situations.

Now, it's still worth holding on to Jones in most leagues with 12 or more teams, because you should have known all along that he was a stash investment. Maybe you hoped for more against Atlanta, but you should have been prepared for an outcome like this one before picking up Jones in the first place. The presumption of value with Jones was not necessarily that he'd displace Barber immediately, but that the situation was trending in his favor and that it would be better to buy for cheap then rather than fork over your entire FAAB budget at the point where it was entirely obvious. If you cut Jones now and Barber tanks against the Browns, you might be paying up for the privilege of re-purchasing last week's cut. Of course, if you need production now, then you might not have the luxury of waiting on Jones.

Tevin Coleman vs. Ito Smith, ATL

I'm trying to keep the faith here, but Coleman is making it difficult for me. I can't tell if the Falcons are of similarly waning faith, or if they're just high on Smith, but the team all but declared Smith and Coleman equals in Sunday's win over Tampa Bay. Coleman started and played 38 snaps, but Smith played 31 and saw 11 carries to Coleman's 10. Both players saw two targets.

The game marked Smith's third straight with a touchdown, and his workload marked a higher share of the backfield usage than even in the prior games Devonta Freeman missed. The next trend to watch is whether, upon Freeman's return, the three are treated as equals or if Coleman risks falling to third in line. The Falcons should just trade Coleman to Philadelphia or something.

Chris Carson vs. Mike Davis vs. Rashaad Penny, SEA

Carson started the game and clearly ran as the lead back, despite Davis' persisting involvement with six carries on 23 snaps. Penny played 13 snaps and totaled 43 yards on nine carries while turning two targets into 27 yards, but he basically didn't play until the final drive of the game. So with that: Carson is the clear lead runner. Davis was the clear backup Sunday, but he might have lost himself some ground with Penny's showing. I'll otherwise quote myself from yesterday to line out my suspicions of where this backfield is headed.

If we're still sifting for running backs with breakout potential from Week 6 onward, I'll continue to insist Rashaad Penny is one of the top candidates to do so. He's clearly behind Chris Carson and Mike Davis in the Seattle rotation, but he gained ground today, and he should gain more with the bye week. There are a number of incoherent takes on Penny's struggles to this point – people tend to oscillate between his weight, his pass blocking, or even the suggestion that he straight up sucks – but I think it'd take an incredible lack of perspective to not see that the weight is the beginning and the end of the explanation. Carson and Davis are not starting NFL running backs. Penny didn't look exactly lean in his last two games, but he's looking faster all the time, and as long as he keeps trending positively with his weight then Carson and Davis will soon make obvious the inferiority of their talent. Carson runs hard and has anchor strength from his muscular build, but there's very little burst or elusiveness, and his motor can only take him so far. He's basically what you'd get if Troy Hambrick had hit the weight room harder. Davis runs with his eyes low and reliably finds piles. Penny's speed and vision is a sharp contrast, and he'll need to get fat again or suffer some other complication if Carson and Davis hope to escape with their winnings. The Seattle offensive line has been getting some good push, so if Penny keeps improving his shape and picks up on the rhythm of the game he should be worth well more than a lot of the players we'll look back on as wasted waiver wire picks in these weeks.

Wide Receivers

Jermaine Kearse vs. Terrelle Pryor vs. Robby Anderson, NYJ

Quincy Enunwa is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain he suffered against the Colts on Sunday, so the WR1 role with the Jets is up for grabs. Enunwa started in two-wide sets and notably played a lot of slot in three-wide, with Terrelle Pryor and Robby Anderson playing outside. Kearse is most likely to play that slot role when applicable, so the fact that he led the team with 10 targets Sunday is consistent with Darnold's prior tendencies.

Kearse isn't as explosive of an athlete as Enunwa and probably can't match his upside, but in PPR leagues especially Kearse should provide mainstream value going forward. He did as much against the Colts, finishing with nine receptions for 94 yards. Darnold seems to utilize the slot target more than Josh McCown did last year, when Kearse managed to accumulate 65 receptions for 810 yards and five touchdowns on 102 targets.

Josh Gordon over Phillip Dorsett, NE

This one will be brief: Dorsett played three snaps against the Chiefs on Sunday. If that's all he can claim in a pass-happy shootout like that, then he's completely off almost any redraft radar barring an injury to Chris Hogan or Josh Gordon. Gordon's promotion is the singular reason for this outcome, and it speaks to the upside Gordon could have going forward. If Dorsett isn't getting any snaps, then Gordon could be the closest thing the Patriots have to the function Brandin Cooks served last year.