This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
N.Y. Giants (+5.5) at Atlanta, 54.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Story: I wonder if opposition defenses play the Three Dog Night hit Eli's Coming to pump themselves up before facing the Giants. The weird thing about Manning's play so far this season is that statistically, he's been pretty OK. His 7.2 YPA would be his best mark in three years, and his 68.7 percent completion rate is easily a career high. That's probably more a testament to the skills of the players around him than a testament to his accuracy, though. If there's a recent comparison, it might be to Sam Bradford's 2016, when his dump-off tendencies became so extreme that he actually set an NFL record for accuracy without actually being particularly productive. (Fortunately, Drew Brees wiped that stain off the record books last year). Manning's basically an older, less consistent Bradford at this point. Facing a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in QB rating against and has coughed up a league-high 16 TD passes should be just what he needs to get right, but that assumes there's a better level left Eli can reach. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, has put up numbers at least as good as his 2016 career-best performance so far, but a look at the secondaries he's gotten to pick apart (divisional games against NO and TB, plus PIT and CIN) and you wonder if maybe he's left some production on the table. Tevin Coleman's inability
N.Y. Giants (+5.5) at Atlanta, 54.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Story: I wonder if opposition defenses play the Three Dog Night hit Eli's Coming to pump themselves up before facing the Giants. The weird thing about Manning's play so far this season is that statistically, he's been pretty OK. His 7.2 YPA would be his best mark in three years, and his 68.7 percent completion rate is easily a career high. That's probably more a testament to the skills of the players around him than a testament to his accuracy, though. If there's a recent comparison, it might be to Sam Bradford's 2016, when his dump-off tendencies became so extreme that he actually set an NFL record for accuracy without actually being particularly productive. (Fortunately, Drew Brees wiped that stain off the record books last year). Manning's basically an older, less consistent Bradford at this point. Facing a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in QB rating against and has coughed up a league-high 16 TD passes should be just what he needs to get right, but that assumes there's a better level left Eli can reach. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, has put up numbers at least as good as his 2016 career-best performance so far, but a look at the secondaries he's gotten to pick apart (divisional games against NO and TB, plus PIT and CIN) and you wonder if maybe he's left some production on the table. Tevin Coleman's inability to take advantage of Devonta Freeman's health woes has opened the door for rookie Ito Smith to make an impact, and the fourth-round pick has scored in three straight games. Given the Giants' struggles against the run (25th in rushing yards allowed per game), it wouldn't be a shock to see him make it four straight.
The Skinny:
•NYG injuries: none
•ATL injuries: RB Freeman (IR, groin)
•NYG DFS chalk: Saquon Barkley (ATL 29th in YPC allowed, 26th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•ATL DFS chalk: Julio Jones (NYG 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NYG DFS tournament plays: none
•ATL DFS tournament plays: Calvin Ridley (NYG 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: dome
The Scoop: Barkley shines in prime time, galloping for 140 combined yards and two TDs. Manning dinks and dunks for 240 yards and a touchdown to Odell Beckham. Coleman picks up 80 combined yards and a receiving score, while Smith adds 50 combined yards and a rushing TD. Ryan throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Ridley and, gulp, Julio for the other two. Falcons, 34-24
Tennessee (+6.5) vs. L.A. Chargers at London, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT
The Story: Scratch what I said last week about the NFL learning its lesson and not scheduling UK games to be ridiculously early for the North American audience. Sigh. Neither of these teams has much experience handling the trip across the pond – the Titans have never played a game in the International Series, while the Chargers last did a decade ago – so the setup is there for another British blowout if one team is prepared and the other, well, isn't. The Titans have lost two straight and simply can't score, as they're one of only three teams in the league with less than 100 points this season (the Bills and Cards being the others) and the only one without rookie QB growing pains to blame it on. Marcus Mariota's 246 yards and 0:1 TD:INT over the losing streak would be a poor performance in a single game, and he's either not 100 percent healthy or not the player just about everybody thought he was. The Bolts, on the other hand, are rolling, winning three consecutive, albeit against teams with a combined 4-13-1 record. Melvin Gordon has nine TDs in the last five games and a career-high 5.1 YPC, while Philip Rivers is slinging the ball around with his usual precision and is on pace for his first 40-TD campaign at age 36. When the Titans win, they do by dragging the opposition down to their level, but the Chargers' current momentum suggests that isn't likely to happen.
The Skinny:
•TEN injuries: none
•LAC injuries: DE Joey Bosa (out, foot); K Caleb Sturgis (questionable, quad)
•TEN DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS chalk: Keenan Allen (26 percent target share, TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•TEN DFS tournament plays: Corey Davis (41 percent of team Air Yards, LAC 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•LAC DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Dion Lewis leads the Titans backfield with 80 combined yards, but it's Derrick Henry who finds the end zone for the first time this season. Mariota throws for less than 200 yards again, but he runs for 40 and hits Davis for a TD. Gordon only manages 70 combined yards but he does score. Rivers throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Allen. Chargers, 23-17
Houston (+4.5) at Jacksonville, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Story: The AFC South is a mess. It's the only division without a single team above .500, and the only one where every team is underwater in its point differential. On paper, though, these two should be the class of the division. J.J. Watt versus Calais Campbell! Leonard Fournette versus Deshaun Watson! The reality is that the only consistent unit on either side of the ball for either team has been the Texans' offensive line ... and it's been consistently terrible. Watson's scrambling has allowed him to make some big plays, but he's also been sacked an NFL-leading 25 times, a pace Houston fans haven't had to bear witness to since the heyday of Derek Carr's older brother. (Incidentally, the track record for QBs the season after they get laid out 60-plus times is not good, if you're getting an early jump on your 2019 fantasy rankings. Ken O'Brien's 1986 is the closest thing to a healthy, productive campaign anybody's put together. The other members of the club either missed significant time, or were just generally shaky.) The Jaguars' defense should feast against that porous Texans front Sunday, but this is a unit that just coughed up 40 points against a Cowboys outfit that had been held to 20 points or less in four of its first five games, so who knows which version will show up, Sacksonville or Sucksonville. As for the offense, the sudden trade for Carlos Hyde doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in Fournette's health for the rest of the year, but it does reinforce the idea that the team intends to win or lose with its defense rather than Blake Bortles' scattershot arm.
The Skinny:
•HOU injuries: none
•JAC injuries: RB Fournette (out, hamstring); DE Campbell (questionable, ribs)
•HOU DFS chalk: DeAndre Hopkins (29 percent target share, JAC 23rd in DVOA vs. WR1)
•JAC DFS chalk: Jaguars DST (see above, HOU tied for 23rd in giveaways)
•HOU DFS tournament plays: Texans DST (JAC tied for 30th in giveaways)
•JAC DFS tournament plays: Donte Moncrief (34 percent share of team Air Yards, HOU 27th in DVOA vs. WR2, 22nd in DVOA against deep throws)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 HOU, average score 21-20 JAC, average margin of victory 13 points. JAC has won the two 2017 meetings by a combined score of 74-14.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, 14-15 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Lamar Miller manages 60 yards. Watson throws for 220 yards and a TD to Hopkins but gets picked off twice and sacked four times, one of which results in a Telvin Smith fumble return for a touchdown. T.J. Yeldon hangs onto lead duties for one more week but gains only 70 combined yards, while Hyde adds 50 yards and a score. Bortles throws for 260 yards and TDs to Moncrief and Blake Bell. Jaguars, 31-10
Carolina (+4.5) at Philadelphia, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Story: Every year there are teams I just can't wrap my head around. When I think they'll step up, they shrink back. When I give up on them, they take their opponent out behind the woodshed. This season, that team appears to be the Panthers. Other than their Week 3 win over the Bengals, I've been off on all their games, sometimes hilariously so – in fact, if it weren't for that Graham Gano miracle kick against the Giants, I'd be 1-4 on them across the board (straight up, ATS and over/under). In other words, take all the opinions that follow with an entire shaker of salt. That said, they're 3-0 at home and 0-2 on the road, and that seems like a good place to start to reset my expectations for them. Getting Greg Olsen back and healthy should at least help stabilize Cam Newton's numbers, and while Christian McCaffrey turned in a dud last week against Washington, if 15 touches and tying for the team lead in targets is his floor, he's going to be relatively matchup-proof. The Eagles finally looked like the defending champs again last week in their pasting of the Giants, and while the Wendell Smallwood-Corey Clement duo wasn't terribly efficient (3.2 YPC between them), it didn't need to be with Carson Wentz carving up the opposition secondary like he was practicing for Thanksgiving dinner.
The Skinny:
•CAR injuries: none
•PHI injuries: RB Darren Sproles (out, hamstring)
•CAR DFS chalk: none
•PHI DFS chalk: Zach Ertz (CAR 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
•CAR DFS tournament plays: D.J. Moore (PHI 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: Nelson Agholor (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, 16-17 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: McCaffrey piles up 100 combined yards and a score. Newton throws for 240 yards and runs for 50 more, finding Moore for a TD. Clement leads the Eagles backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown, while Smallwood adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Wentz throws for 270 yards and two more TDs, hitting Agholor and Ertz. Eagles, 28-20
Minnesota at N.Y. Jets (+3), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Story: The NFL cut a deal with Marvel to brand this game with a "Thor versus The Hulk!" theme, but I'll really need to see Roger Goodell's Jeff Goldblum impression before I'm willing to go along with it. The Vikings' defense seemed to turn a corner a couple of weeks ago in their road win over the Eagles, while the Kirk Cousins-Adam Thielen connection just keeps zipping along. If Dalvin Cook ever gets healthy and is able to add some pop to the running game, the NFC North is there for the taking. As for the Jets, Sam Darnold has been predictably erratic at times, but he's posted a YPA north of 8.0 in four of six starts, which is pretty darn impressive for a rookie. His receiving corps is beat up, though, with Quincy Enunwa out and Terrelle Pryor less than 100 percent, and if the backfield can't gain much real estate on the ground, the kid could be in for a long day.
The Skinny:
•MIN injuries: RB Cook (out, hamstring); DE Everson Griffin (out, mental health); S Andrew Sendejo (out, groin)
•NYJ injuries: RB Isaiah Crowell (questionable, foot); WR Enunwa (out, ankle); WR Pryor (doubtful, groin); S Marcus Maye (out, thumb)
•MIN DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•MIN DFS tournament plays: Kyle Rudolph (NYJ 23rd in DVOA vs. TE)
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: Darnold (MIN 27th in QB rating against), Chris Herndon (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Bilal Powell (MIN 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 16-17 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Latavius Murray bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 270 yards and TDs to Thielen and Rudolph, although Thielen gets held below 100 yards for the first time all year. Powell leads the Jets backfield with 70 combined yards. Darnold throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Robby Anderson and Trenton Cannon, but he also gets picked off twice. Vikings, 27-17
New England at Chicago (+3), 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Story: Chiefs fans can talk all they want about how excited they are about Patrick Mahomes walking into Foxboro and going toe-to-toe with Tom Brady, but Bill Belichick doesn't believe in moral victories. Right on schedule, the Patriots look like the class of the AFC, and there's still plenty of untapped potential in an offense that just scored 43 points – neither Julian Edelman nor Josh Gordon have hauled in 60 yards in a game yet, and Rob Gronkowski hasn't scored since Week 1. The Bears represent a much different test, though. The Khalil Mack-led defense already shut down one high-powered attack in the Bucs, and the flashes Mitchell Trubisky has shown as he gains experience and confidence make them look much more than one-dimensional. It's hard to take a passing game seriously when Taylor Gabriel is its most dangerous weapon, but Belichick's vaunted "take away my opponent's best player" strategy becomes tougher to implement when his opponent doesn't really have one. Of course, it's also hard to take Chicago's defense seriously as an elite unit when it just got lit up by Brock Osweiler, especially with Mack less than 100 percent healthy.
The Skinny:
•NE injuries: RB Sony Michel (questionable, knee); TE Gronkowski (questionable, ankle); WR Edelman (questionable, heel); WR Gordon (questionable, hamstring)
•CHI injuries: LB Mack (questionable, ankle); WR Allen Robinson (questionable, groin)
•NE DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS chalk: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: Robinson (NE 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 8-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Michel leads the Pats backfield with 60 yards. Brady throws for 270 yards and three TDs, finding Gronk. Gordon and Chris Hogan. Jordan Howard rumbles for 70 yards and a score, while Tarik Cohen also adds 70 combined yards. Trubisky struggles, throwing for 220 yards and a touchdown to Robinson while getting picked off twice. Patriots, 27-17
Buffalo (+7.5) at Indianapolis, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Story: Derek Anderson. Seriously? Wow. I mean, I'm on board with the idea that anybody of the street would be better under center than Nathan Peterman, but if the Bills' coaching staff and front office agree, why is Peterman on the roster in the first place? Plus, Anderson is very literally a guy off the street – he hasn't won a start in the NFL since 2014. Buffalo's two wins still seem like mirages, and while LeSean McCoy appears healthy and back to his old self, the team's spooky QB situation (Peterman to Josh Allen to Peterman to Anderson ... it's like being trapped on a scary-go-round, boils and ghouls!) isn't exactly forcing defenses to key on anyone else. Good thing their defense is at least capable of keeping things close-ish most weeks. That could be put to the test here, though, as Andrew Luck gets T.Y. Hilton back, and Marlon Mack showed against the Jets that he's healthy too and finally ready to assume No. 1 duties.
The Skinny:
•BUF injuries: QB Allen (out, elbow)
•IND injuries: TE Jack Doyle (out, hip); WR Ryan Grant (out, ankle)
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•IND DFS chalk: Colts DST (BUF 32nd in points per game, 30th in sacks allowed)
•BUF DFS tournament plays: none
•IND DFS tournament plays: Nyheim Hines (BUF 22nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Weather forecast: dome
The Scoop: McCoy piles up 110 combined yards and catches a receiving TD. Anderson throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked five times. Mack manages 70 yards, while Hines adds 50 combined yards. Luck throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Zach Pascal. Colts, 16-10
Cleveland (+3) at Tampa Bay, 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Story: The Nick Chubb Era begins in Cleveland after Carlos Hyde got unceremoniously dumped on the Jags. He doesn't get an ideal opponent for his first start – the Bucs' secondary is a mess, but their front seven is actually fifth in YPC allowed at 3.8 – but the rookie's already flashed his big-play ability, and even if game flow keeps his workload low, he doesn't need many touches to make an impact. Baker Mayfield hasn't quite saved the franchise yet, but piling up stats against this defense shouldn't be an issue, even if his ankle isn't 100 percent healthy. In many ways, these two teams are mirror images of each other statistically – the Browns defense is soft against the run but ranks second in QB rating allowed, and while Cleveland just handed the keys to its backfield to their prized rookie RB, Tampa stubbornly insists on giving Peyton Barber touches over Ronald Jones II. Strength versus strength/weakness versus weakness matchups can sometimes produce unpredictable results, but unless Chubb goes off, it's hard to see Mayfield keeping up with Jameis Winston.
The Skinny:
•CLE injuries: WR Rashard Higgins (out, knee); LB Joe Schobert (hamstring, out)
•TB injuries: DT Gerald McCoy (out, calf)
•CLE DFS chalk: Jarvis Landry (28 percent target share, TB 22nd in DVOA vs. WR1), David Njoku (TB 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•TB DFS chalk: none
•CLE DFS tournament plays: Mayfield (TB 32nd in QB rating against), Duke Johnson (TB 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•TB DFS tournament plays: Barber (CLE 29th in rushing yards allowed per game, 28th in rushing TDs allowed)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 11-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Chubb runs for 80 yards and a score, while Johnson adds 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Mayfield throws for 300 yards and a second TD to Njoku. Barber also gains 80 yards but finds the end zone twice, and Jones also catches a TD pass. Winston throws for 290 yards and a second touchdown to Mike Evans. Buccaneers, 34-27
Detroit at Miami (+3), 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
The Story: Is this the week Kerryon Johnson finally gets treated like a bell cow? Despite the fact that he's averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has brought in 13 of his 15 targets, the Lions have primarily used him as a between-the-20s guy, using LeGarrette Blount at the goal line and Theo Riddick as the No. 1 receiving option out of the backfield. Riddick is sidelined for this one, though, and coming out of their bye week, the team might finally commit to getting Johnson 20 touches or so – especially considering the Dolphins also just got gouged for 90 yards on seven catches by Tarik Cohen. Miami is undefeated at home this season, though, and Brock Osweiler looked pretty darn good airing it out against the Bears last week in pace of Ryan Tannehill. Albert Wilson had a career day on the other end of Osweiler's passes, even if Wilson did most of the work himself, and as is often the case when a backup QB takes the reins, the former No. 3 guy on the depth chart could remain the de facto No. 1 over Kenny Stills, or the potentially finally healthy DeVante Parker, in the short term. What that role is actually worth against a Lions defense that's given up the fewest receiving yards in the league to opposition WRs remains to be seen, though.
The Skinny:
•DET injuries: RB Riddick (out, knee); DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, shoulder)
•MIA injuries: QB Tannehill (out, shoulder); WR Parker (questionable, quad); DE Cameron Wake (questionable, knee)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•DET DFS tournament plays: Johnson (MIA 23rd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•MIA DFS tournament plays: Osweiler (DET 29th in QB rating against), Wilson (DET 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, 9-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Johnson explodes for 140 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Matthew Stafford throws for 280 yards and a second touchdown to Golden Tate but gets picked off twice. Kenyan Drake piles up 90 combined yards, while Frank Gore thuds ahead for 70 yards. Osweiler throws for 230 yards and TDs to Wilson and Danny Amendola but also gets intercepted twice. Dolphins, 26-24
New Orleans (+2.5) at Baltimore, 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
The Story: Alvin Kamara's Week 5 disappearing act was a bit frightening for anyone with fantasy shares in him, but it's understandable the Saints would want to march Mark Ingram right back into a prominent role right after his suspension. The two were able to happily co-exist in 2017, and if anything, New Orleans' offense has looked even more efficient and dangerous to begin this season – I mean, Drew Brees is completing nearly 78 percent of his passes and has an 11:0 TD:INT. That's absurd, and facing the Ravens, who have the top defense in the league by QB rating against, might only slow him down a little. Kamara will be fine. Less fine is Joe Flacco, whose early-season production has started falling like the autumn foliage. A date with a Saints defense that ranks 31st in QB rating against should perk him up, though.
The Skinny:
•NO injuries: WR Ted Ginn (IR, knee)
•BAL injuries: none
•NO DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•NO DFS tournament plays: none
•BAL DFS tournament plays: Flacco (see above), John Brown (first in NFL at 19.8 average Air Yards per target, NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2, NO 32nd in DVOA versus deep throws)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, 13-16 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Kamara rebounds with 90 combined yards and a score, while Ingram adds 70 yards and a TD of his own. Brees throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Ben Watson. Javorius Allen leads the Ravens backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving TD. Flacco throws for 320 yards and two touchdowns, both to Brown, while Michael Crabtree tops 100 yards. Saints, 30-27
Dallas (+1.5) at Washington, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
The Story: Why, of course the Cowboys discovered their passing game against the Jaguars. It's all perfectly illogical, I don't know why anyone should be surprised. The thing is, they're just as likely to lose it again this week as build on that success. Partially it's a lack of faith in offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to recognize and stick with what worked, but also there's the matter of Ezekiel Elliott's ownership of the Washington defense. In three career games against Dallas' division rival, he's gashed them for 330 rushing yards and five TDs with a 4.5 YPC, including a 33-150-2 line at FedEx Field last season. Washington, meanwhile, has plenty of injuries on offense, and even though Jordan Reed inexplicably isn't on the list, he still isn't producing much. Alex Smith is looking more like he did as a 49er than as a Chief, and while their defense has shown some flashes of respectability –they're sixth in YPA allowed – much like Jacksonville did, they might find that the things they do well aren't particularly useful against an offense as weird as Dallas'.
The Skinny:
•DAL injuries: WR Tavon Austin (out, groin)
•WAS injuries: RB Adrian Peterson (questionable, ankle); RB Chris Thompson (questionable, ribs); WR Jamison Crowder (out, ankle); WR Paul Richardson (doubtful, shoulder)
•DAL DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Cole Beasley (WAS 22nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
•WAS DFS tournament plays: Reed (DAL 21st in DVOA vs. TE)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 DAL, average score 29-21 DAL, average margin of victory 11 points. DAL has won four straight meetings.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, 12-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Elliott rampages for 160 combined yards and a touchdown. Dak Prescott throws for 210 yards and a TD to Beasley while running for 40 yards and a score of his own. Peterson plays but gets held to 50 yards. Smith throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Reed. Cowboys, 23-13
L.A. Rams at San Francisco (+9.5), 52.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
The Story: The Rams kept winning last week, but failed to score 30 points for the first time all year. Jared Goff also attempted fewer than 30 passes all year, as the team fell into the Broncos' "Todd Gurley can have all the running room he wants" trap, so don't expect Sean McVay to take that bait again. The 49ers' defense isn't built that way anyway – the secondary's pitiful 14:1 TD:INT is only out-done by the Bucs' 16:1 ratio. The question isn't whether LA will air it out against them, it's whether C.J. Beathard can keep pace. The second-year backup has looked better than a lot of teams' starters since taking over, throwing multiple TDs and topping a 60 percent completion rate in three straight games. If Marquise Goodwin can get under a couple of bombs again, and Matt Breida can keep Goff off the field enough, this one could get interesting.
The Skinny:
•LAR injuries: WR Cooper Kupp (out, knee)
•SF injuries: WR Pierre Garcon (questionable, shoulder); WR Trent Taylor (questionable, back); CB Richard Sherman (questionable, calf)
•LAR DFS chalk: Robert Woods (36 percent of team Air Yards, SF 24th in DVOA vs. WR2, 25th in DVOA against deep throws)
•SF DFS chalk: none
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Gerald Everett (SF 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
•SF DFS tournament plays: Breida (LAR 28th in YPC allowed), Goodwin (LAR 24th in DVOA vs. WR1, 26th in DVOA against deep throws)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 SF, average score 25-17 SF, average margin of victory 13 points
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Gurley pounds out 110 combined yards and a TD. Goff throws for 370 yards and four touchdowns, hitting Woods twice plus Everett and Josh Reynolds once each, with Woods and Brandin Cooks each topping 100 yards. Breida gains 70 yards. Beathard throws for 300 yards, finding Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne in the end zone, but he also gets picked off twice. Rams, 38-17
Cincinnati (+6) at Kansas City, 58.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
The Story: Predictably, the Bengals got burned by the Steelers last week because they always get burned by the Steelers, although really, if you don't bother to cover Antonio Brown with the game on the line, you deserve what happens next. Andy Dalton and company also didn't take full advantage of what should have been a plus matchup, but they'll get a chance at a do-over in Kansas City. The Chiefs' defense is dead last in YPC allowed and not much better in YPA allowed (26th), so Cincinnati should have little trouble moving the ball. They'd better, because Patrick Mahomes likely isn't going to hand them a lead in the first half on home turf the way he did for the Patriots in Foxboro, unless he's becoming hooked on the adrenaline rush that comes with mounting big comebacks.
The Skinny:
•CIN injuries: RB Giovani Bernard (out, knee)
•KC injuries: LB Justin Houston (doubtful, hamstring); S Eric Berry (doubtful, heel)
•CIN DFS chalk: Joe Mixon (KC 32nd in YPC allowed, 28th in passing game DVOA vs RB)
•KC DFS chalk: Kareem Hunt (CIN 24th in YPC allowed, 24th in passing game DVOA vs. RB), Tyreek Hill (CIN 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•CIN DFS tournament plays: C.J. Uzomah (KC 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
•KC DFS tournament plays: Sammy Watkins (CIN 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 10-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Mixon chews up 120 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Dalton throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting John Ross for the other one. Hunt responds with 150 combined yards and two rushing scores. Mahomes throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns to Hill, Watkins and Demetrius Harris. Chiefs, 38-24
Denver at Arizona (+1.5), 42.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
The Story: The Broncos came away with a precious moral victory last week, keeping things close on home turf against the best team in the league, but they've still lost four consecutive and have looked terrible on the road. At least they get to stay in their own time zone on a short week. The Vikings version of Case Keenum has started to show up, too – he's topped 300 yards with multiple TDs in consecutive games, and he's matched or exceeded last season's 7.4 YPA in three straight. The Cards are 1-5, and are arguably the only team in the NFL cellar who were expected to be there. David Johnson's been a mild disappointment, only hitting 100 YFS once, but he does have six TDs in six games and remains the focal point of an offense that simply hasn't been running enough plays to keep him among the RB elite. Josh Rosen hasn't been terrible, and he's shown flickers of chemistry with fellow rookie Christian Kirk, but Arizona needs more than a game-manager under center to win games, and the 10th overall pick has yet to show he can make a consistent positive impact, rather than simply avoid making too many negative ones.
The Skinny:
•DEN injuries: none
•ARI injuries: none
•DEN DFS chalk: Phillip Lindsay (ARI 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 25th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•ARI DFS chalk: Johnson (DEN 32nd in YPC allowed and rushing yards per game allowed)
•DEN DFS tournament plays: none
•ARI DFS tournament plays: Kirk (DEN 25th in DVOA vs. WR2), Ricky Seals-Jones (DEN 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: dome
The Scoop: Lindsay piles up 100 combined yards, but Devontae Booker catches a TD pass. Keenum throws for 300 yards and two more scores, both to Emmanuel Sanders. Johnson responds with his best game of the season, erupting for 160 combined yards and two TDs. Rosen throws for a career-high 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Kirk and Seals-Jones. Cardinals, 31-24
Last week's record: 9-6, 6-9 ATS, 8-7 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 59-32-2, 42-45-6 ATS, 42-51 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS
