NFL Game Previews: Titans-Cowboys Matchup

Tennessee (+6.5) at Dallas, 41.0 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Story: Another line that saw serious early movement, the Cowboys were only favored by four to kick off the week. It's only Amari Cooper, people. C'mon now. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, although it means a little more for Dallas since they have a new toy to break in. The Titans have stopped winning ugly and instead have apparently switched to losing with style, if Mike Vrabel's ballsy decision to go for two at the end of a 20-19 loss to the Chargers is any indication. (For the record, I though it was the right call to try and step on LA's throat at the end of a second half in which Tennessee was dominating, rather than give their opponents a chance to regroup and potentially win the coin toss heading into overtime.) If Vrabel has more reliable assets on offense, it might have even paid off. Cooper might turn things around for himself now that he's escaped the black hole in Oakland, but the Cowboys' offense is still built around Ezekiel Elliott and the running game, which is why their decision to sack their o-line coach and hand the job to long-time assistant and former player Marc Colombo might end up having the bigger impact in the long run. A group that was supposed to be among the league's best underachieved through the first seven games, but if they find their groove in the second half, the Cowboys could still plow their way into the playoff picture. As for this matchup, the under looks as safe as any bet this week. Dallas has allowed the fewest passing TD in the league at eight, while Tennessee is right behind at nine, and neither passing attack seems likely to put those rankings to the test.

The Skinny:
•TEN injuries: WR Corey Davis (questionable, hamstring)
•DAL injuries: none
•TEN DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS chalk: none
•TEN DFS tournament plays: Marcus Mariota (DAL 26th in QB rating against)
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Cooper (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dion Lewis leads the Titans backfield with 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Mariota throws for 220 yards and runs for 50, hitting Taywan Taylor for a score. Elliott rumbles for 110 yards and a TD. Dak Prescott throws for under 200 yards but runs for 40 and finds Cooper for his first Cowboys touchdown. Cowboys, 20-17

Chicago at Buffalo (+10), 37.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's weird to think the Bears might be the class of their division, but it's not a fluke that they're sitting on top of the NFC North. Even when Khalil Mack isn't 100 percent, the defense has been tough, holding Sam Darnold and the Jets to 10 points last week, while the offense has teased Chiefs-like upside as Mitchell Trubisky continues his development. If there's one player who might not be particularly fond of Matt Nagy's scheme, though, it's Jordan Howard. His carries have varied wildly this season, from a low of 11 to a high of 24, and he has yet to top 82 rushing yards in a game. Tarik Cohen has out-produced him in four straight contests, and while Howard's early-down and short-yardage role remains mostly intact, he's clearly not the focal point of the offense any more. There isn't much left to say about the Bills. Their defense did everything they could to at least keep Monday's clash with the Pats close, but Derek Anderson's late pick-six squashed any hope of even staying within the spread, much less pulling the upset. Buffalo will turn back to Nathan Peterman and his career 3:9 TD:INT through seven games at QB, but they did dig up former Bears backup Matt Barkley – who hasn't taken a snap in an NFL game since 2016 – on Wednesday, and you can't rule out the possibility he gets into the game. Either way, the offensive plan is pretty much Shady or bust. LeSean McCoy has averaged 99 scrimmage yards over his last three healthy games, but his ceiling remains constrained by the ineptitude around him. He's still looking for his first TD of the year, and that's not likely to change against a Bears defense that still hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown all season.

The Skinny:
•CHI injuries: LB Mack (questionable, ankle); WR Allen Robinson (questionable, groin)
•BUF injuries: QB Josh Allen (out, elbow); QB Anderson (questionable, concussion); LB Tremaine Edmunds (questionable, concussion)
•CHI DFS chalk: Bears DST (BUF 32nd in points per game at 10.9, tied for 29th in giveaways at 18), Cohen (BUF 26th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: none
•BUF DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Howard bangs out 60 yards, but Cohen leads the change with 90 combined yards and a receiving TD. Trubisky throws for 240 yards and a second score to Anthony Miller. McCoy scrapes together 80 combined yards. Peterman throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but a Lorenzo Alexander fumble return for a touchdown keeps things close. Bears, 17-10

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Carolina, 54.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Here we go again. Coach Dirk Koetter reached into his top hat last week for some more Fitzmagic and nearly got rewarded with a huge comeback win on the road against the Bengals, but as Rocky could tell you, that trick never works. Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start this week over the struggling Jameis Winston, which is probably good news for DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard, both of whom thrived earlier in the year while Fitzpatrick was in charge. DJax, who was supposedly begging for a trade not too long ago, becomes even more important if Mike Evans is limited by his knee injury. The Panthers are coming off a big home victory over the Ravens and are one of just six teams left in the NFL undefeated at home. Cam Newton has been on a roll, throwing for multiple TD passes in six straight games without letting his completion rate dip below 60 percent, and while he isn't a burner, D.J. Moore's emergence is making a banged-up Torrey Smith obsolete. They get routinely overlooked when listing title contenders, but if they win this week and the Saints can't topple the Rams, the two teams will be tied atop the NFC South.

The Skinny:
•TB injuries: RB Ronald Jones II (out, hamstring); DT Gerald McCoy (questionable, calf)
•CAR injuries: WR Smith (out, knee)
•TB DFS chalk: Howard (CAR 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
•CAR DFS chalk: Newton (TB 32nd in QB rating against), Christian McCaffrey (TB 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•TB DFS tournament plays: none
•CAR DFS tournament plays: Moore (TB 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Greg Olsen (TB 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
•head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 CAR, average score 24-14 CAR, average margin of victory 11 points.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Peyton Barber gets held to 40 yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 310 yards and TDs to Howard and Jackson but gets picked off twice. McCaffrey scampers for 130 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Newton throws for 270 yards and three more TDs, finding Moore twice and Devin Funchess once. Panthers, 34-20

Kansas City at Cleveland (+8.5), 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Chiefs' offense truly is a wonder to behold. They've only been held below 30 points once this season, and even in their loss to the Patriots, Patrick Mahomes and company still racked up a 40-burger. It's not just that they have elite talent at the skill positions, it's the way they're deployed by Andy Reid that makes this team almost impossible to stop. Tyreek Hill deep, Travis Kelce over the middle, Sammy Watkins along the sidelines, Kareem Hunt out of the backfield... there's simply no way for a secondary to keep all of them under wraps, not even a Cleveland unit ranked first in QB rating against and which is the only defense left in the NFL with more INTs than TD passes allowed. The only way to slow them down is to either get to Mahomes (good luck, the Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league, just 10 through eight games) or keep them off the field entirely, which means newly promoted Browns offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens will have to throw everything but his sink at the KC defense. That probably means something waaay outside the box like, uhh, lots of carries for Nick Chubb – look, Kitchens has been an NFL assistant since 2006, and this is his first coordinator gig. If he were some kind of offensive genius, someone probably would have noticed by now – but really, just having Hue Jackson, the Michael Scott of coaches, out of the picture should give the team a big lift. Not, y'know, pull off the upset of the century big, but still big.

The Skinny:
•KC injuries: LB Justin Houston (questionable, hamstring); S Eric Berry (doubtful, heel); LB Anthony Hitchens (questionable, ribs)
•CLE injuries: WR Antonio Callaway (questionable, ankle); WR Rashard Higgins (questionable, knee); LB Joe Schobert (out, hamstring)
•KC DFS chalk: Hunt (CLE tied for 31st in rushing TDs allowed)
•CLE DFS chalk: Chubb (KC 32nd in YPC allowed)
•KC DFS tournament plays: none
•CLE DFS tournament plays: David Njoku (KC 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, 13-14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hunt piles up 100 combined yards and two rushing TDs. Mahomes throws for 260 yards, just the second time all season he's been held below 300, but still finds Hill and Chris Conley for scores. Chubb runs for 90 yards and a touchdown. Baker Mayfield throws for 220 yards and a TD to Njoku. Chiefs, 31-17

N.Y. Jets (+3) at Miami, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: All things considered, 3-5 isn't bad for the Jets at the halfway mark. The Sam Darnold-led offense has been feast or famine (41.3 PPG in the wins, 13.6 PPG in the losses), but at least the feasts offer some hope for the future. It would help if Darnold's skill players could stay healthy. Bilal Powell's now gone for the season, and both of the team's top two receivers are limping. The pressure that inconsistency is putting on the defense is starting to show as well; after holding the opposition to 21 points or less in four of their first five games, they've coughed up 34, 37 and 24 in the last three. Miami's a game ahead of them in the standings but has been no less erratic, with last Thursday's embarrassment in Houston probably being the low point of the season to date. With Ryan Tannehill still out, the team will have to keep relying on diminishing returns from Brock Osweiler, although DeVante Parker's abrupt resurgence does give Osweiler at least one dangerous target. Week 2's meeting didn't produce much in the way of fireworks, but given the history of this rivalry, both QBs posting career-best performances wouldn't be a huge shock.

The Skinny:
•NYJ injuries: WR Quincy Enunwa (questionable, ankle); WR Robby Anderson (questionable, ankle)
•MIA injuries: QB Tannehill (out, shoulder); WR Kenny Stills (questionable, groin); CB Xavien Howard (questionable, ankle)
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: Isaiah Crowell (MIA 25th in YPC allowed), Darnold (MIA 28th in YPA allowed)
•MIA DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 MIA, average score 21-20 NYJ, average margin of victory 12 points. Seven of those 11 meetings, including all five NYJ wins, have been decided by 13 points or more.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 10-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Crowell gallops for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Darnold throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Jermaine Kearse and Elijah McGuire. Kenyan Drake rips through for 110 combined yards and a score, while Frank Gore grinds out 50. Osweiler throws for 310 yards and TDs to Parker and Mike Gesicki. Dolphins, 33-31

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The NFL's most vicious rivalry picks back up with the Steelers looking to avenge a 26-14 loss in their own building in Week 4. The key to that victory for the Ravens was shutting down James Conner, as they held him to a season-low 44 scrimmage yards. There's no guarantee he has much more success this time around, either – Baltimore ranks seventh in YPC allowed at 3.9, and first in passing game DVOA against running backs. It's also worth noting that Jimmy Smith served the final game of his suspension that week, though Marlon Humphrey could miss this one instead due to a thigh injury. Pittsburgh certainly has the weapons to break out, though, even against this defense – Antonio Brown has scored in every game but one this season, while JuJu Smith-Schuster has four 100-yard performances in seven starts. The Ravens added Ty Montgomery at the trade deadline for backfield depth, a pickup that could prove useful if Alex Collins' foot injury is a bigger deal than it seems, but the offense will mostly flow through Joe Flacco. He tossed up 363 yards in the Week 4 clash, and while his 6.6 YPA is as pedestrian as ever, increased volume is leading to a solid statistical season – he's on pace for a career-high 684 attempts. With both teams likely to air it out, the key to this game might come via the pass rush. The Ravens lead the NFL with 27 sacks, while the Steelers are tied for second with 24.

The Skinny:
•PIT injuries: RB Le'Veon Bell (out, contract)
•BAL injuries: Rb Collins (questionable, foot); LB C.J. Mosley (questionable, thigh)
•PIT DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•PIT DFS tournament plays: Vance McDonald (BAL 23rd in DVOA vs. TE)
•BAL DFS tournament plays: Hayden Hurst (PIT 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-5 BAL including postseason, average score 23-22 BAL, average margin of victory nine points.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner puts together 70 combined yards. Ben Roethlisberger throws for 320 yards and two TDs, hitting McDonald and Brown. Collins leads the Ravens backfield with a season-high 80 yards and a touchdown. Flacco throws for 260 yards and scores to John Brown and Hurst. Ravens, 24-20

Detroit (+4.5) at Minnesota, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Golden Tate trade was a bit of a shocker, if for no other reason than he was clearly Matthew Stafford's favorite target. Tate's ability to pick up yards after the catch fit perfectly into coordinator Jim Bob Cooter's short-strike offense, and while removing him from the equation does give Kenny Golladay room to blossom, someone will need to fill Tate's shoes close to the line of scrimmage. Whether that ends up being Theo Riddick (still battling a knee injury) or Kerryon Johnson, or depth receivers TJ Jones or Brandon Powell, remains to be seen. The Vikings have their own banged-up back, but if Dalvin Cook is finally able to return from his hamstring strain, he gets a plum matchup against a Lions defense ranked 30th in YPC allowed. Minnesota could easily just split snaps between Cook and Latavius Murray, and thereby drive fantasy GMs nuts, but whoever gets carries you know Adam Thielen will get his looks. His streak of 100-yard games stands at eight and counting, and he's found the end zone in six of them. Last week he even managed to do it with a season-low seven targets, but he'll need more volume than that if he's going to make it nine consecutive games against Darius Slay.

The Skinny:
•DET injuries: DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, shoulder)
•MIN injuries: RB Cook (questionable, hamstring); WR Stefon Diggs (questionable, ribs); LB Anthony Barr (out, hamstring); CB Xavier Rhodes (questionable, foot); S Andrew Sendejo (questionable, groin)
•DET DFS chalk: Johnson (MIN 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•MIN DFS chalk: Kirk Cousins (DET 31st in QB rating against), Thielen (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•DET DFS tournament plays: Riddick (see above), Luke Willson (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•MIN DFS tournament plays: Diggs (DET 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Kyle Rudolph (DET 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DET, average score 19-18 DET, average margin of victory seven points. The last four games have been decided by a single score, and none of the last 10 contests have been decided by more than 14 points.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Johnson slashes for 140 combined yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Marvin Jones and Riddick. Cook plays and gains 50 yards, but Murray leads the Vikings backfield with 70 yards and a score. Cousins throws for 340 yards and two TDs, hitting Thielen and Rudolph. Thielen breaks 100 yards on the final drive to set up Dan Bailey's game-winning field goal Vikings, 27-24

Atlanta (+1.5) at Washington, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Coming out of their bye, the Falcons have been as disjointed as their 3-4 record suggests. Matt Ryan's putting together another outstanding season, including a stellar 15:2 TD:INT, thanks in part to the emergence of Calvin Ridley opposite Julio Jones. Even so, Julio's inability to score even one dang touchdown remains baffling, and the running game isn't anywhere close to the machine it was in 2016. The defense is doing its best, but the unit's just never recovered from its key early injuries. In many ways, Atlanta's the statistical opposite of Washington, a team with a strong running game and stingy defense but no passing attack to speak of. Adrian Peterson has proven to be a more important offseason import than Alex Smith, and the trade deadline acquisition of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix bolsters a back end that already ranked a respectable 12th in QB rating against.

The Skinny:
•ATL injuries: K Matt Bryant (out, hamstring)
•WAS injuries: RB Chris Thompson (out, ribs); WR Jamison Crowder (out, ankle); WR Paul Richardson (questionable, shoulder); RB Kapri Bibbs (questionable, shoulder)
•ATL DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS chalk: Peterson (ATL 26th in YPC allowed)
•ATL DFS tournament plays: Mohamed Sanu (WAS 23rd in DVOA vs. WR3)
•WAS DFS tournament plays: Alex Smith (ATL 28th in QB rating against), Richardson (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Tevin Coleman leads the Falcons backfield with 60 combined yards. Ryan throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Sanu and Jones. Peterson rumbles for 110 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Richardson while running in a score of his own. Washington, 24-20

Houston (+1) at Denver, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: Talk about revenge games. Demaryius Thomas gets traded at the deadline to the very team the Broncos will be facing this week. Denver's wild-card chances were looking shaky at 3-5 anyway, but handing your next opponent your playbook like this doesn't exactly make it seem like you're really focused on the short term. DT will slot into the No. 2 target spot for Deshaun Watson with Will Fuller hurt again, but he won't see anywhere near the volume he used to with DeAndre Hopkins still dominating the passing-game looks for Houston, and rookie Keke Coutee might be a better fit for Fuller's downfield role anyway. It's still a solid pickup for a team that's somehow flying under the radar despite winning five straight games, by an average score of 28-19, to take control of the AFC South. Courtland Sutton will slide into Thomas' role in the Broncos' offense, but Phillip Lindsay is still the reigning first-year breakout star in Denver, topping 100 scrimmage yards for the third time last week. J.J. Watt and the Texans' front seven are stiff, though, ranking third in YPC allowed, so the Broncos may have to put the ball in Case Keenum's hands more than they'd like.

The Skinny:
•HOU injuries: WR Coutee (questionable, hamstring); LB Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, groin); CB Johnathan Joseph (questionable, knee)
•DEN injuries: RB Royce Freeman (questionable, ankle); LB Brandon Marshall (out, knee);
•HOU DFS chalk: Lamar Miller (DEN 31st in YPC allowed)
•DEN DFS chalk: none
•HOU DFS tournament plays: Thomas (DEN 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•DEN DFS tournament plays: Sutton (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Jeff Heuerman (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Miller gallops for 90 yards and a score. Watson throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Hopkins, Ryan Griffin and, yes, Thomas. Lindsay gains 70 combined yards. Keenum throws for 240 yards and touchdown to Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders but gets picked off twice. Texans, 31-17

L.A. Chargers (+1.5) at Seattle, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: Don't look now, but the Bolts might actually be playing up to their talent level for once. They've won four straight games, although to be fair, the only credible opponent of the four was the Titans, and the Chargers barely escaped that one. Philip Rivers is somehow putting together his best campaign at age 36, posting a career-high 9.1 YPA and surgical 17:3 TD:INT through seven games, and he's on pace to top 4,500 yards again despite his fewest attempts per contest since 2009. The Seahawks' defense ranks third in QB rating against, but if anyone can carve them up, it's ol' man Rivers, who just keeps rolling along. Russell Wilson isn't exactly sluggish right now, either. Like Rivers, his volume's down and his efficiency is up, with his 8.5 YPA also representing a career best if he can maintain it. Wilson's rung up a 9:1 TD:INT over his last three games, and while the Chargers' defense also ranks in the top 10 in QB rating against, they haven't been quite as tough as the 'Hawks. With both teams' starting RB dealing with injuries, this one could end up as one of the more impressive, and unexpected, aerial displays of Week 9.

The Skinny:
•LAC injuries: RB Melvin Gordon (questionable, hamstring); DE Joey Bosa (out, foot)
•SEA injuries: RB Chris Carson (questionable, hip); LB K.J. Wright (questionable, knee); S Bradley McDougald (questionable, knee)
•LAC DFS chalk: none
•SEA DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS tournament plays: none
•SEA DFS tournament plays: David Moore (LAC 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gordon plays but gains only 60 combined yards, though he does score. Austin Ekeler adds 60 combined yards and a receiving TD of his own, while Rivers throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Keenan Allen. Carson also plays and manages 50 yards, while Mike Davis vultures a short TD. Wilson throws for a season-high 310 yards and three touchdowns, finding Doug Baldwin, Moore and Tyler Lockett. Seahawks, 34-24

L.A. Rams (+1.5) at New Orleans, 59.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: A couple of lines have seen big movement this week, but this one's been a roller coaster. The undefeated Rams opened as one-point favorites, but as of Wednesday afternoon (when I pull lines) were 1.5-point underdogs, before the spread swung back their way Thursday night. It's currently Saints plus 2, so while I'll stick with the Rams plus 1.5 when I check how I did next week, if it's a really close game I might not feel good about it. It's easy to see why the public betting would be so conflicted, though. The teams have the two highest-scoring offenses in the NFC, and while the Rams' defense has the superior reputation, it's kind of been coasting on the shellacking it laid on the Raiders and Cards in the first two weeks of the year. Since then, it's allowed 23.7 points a game, not too far off the Saints' seasonal mark of 26.1 a game. Jared Goff will have all his usual targets at his disposal with Cooper Kupp's return, but the same can be said for Drew Brees now that Mark Ingram's back up to speed and Tre'Quan Smith is proving to be at least an adequate replacement for Ted Ginn. The Rams look unstoppable, but the Saints are at home, and anything can happen on the bayou.

The Skinny:
•LAR injuries: none
•NO injuries: none
•LAR DFS chalk: Goff (NO 29th in QB rating against), Brandin Cooks (34 percent of team Air Yards, NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA against deep throws), Robert Woods (33 percent of team Air Yards, NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2, 32nd in DVOA against deep throws)
•NO DFS chalk: Ingram (LAR 27th in YPC allowed)
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Todd Gurley (NO 1st in YPC allowed, but 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•NO DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Gurley gains 120 combined yards and a receiving score. Goff throws for 380 yards and three more TDs, hitting Cooks twice and Woods once with Cooks topping 100 yards. Alvin Kamara picks up 90 combined yards, but Ingram adds 70 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Brees throws for 320 yards and TDs to Michael Thomas (who also hauls in 100 yards) and Cameron Meredith, but a late drive to tie or win it falls short. Rams, 34-31

Green Bay (+5.5) at New England, 57.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: Sunday's second marquee matchup features two of the three greatest quarterbacks of the 21st century, though their respective teams might be headed in opposite directions. Ty Montgomery's failure to give the ball back to Aaron Rodgers one last time got him exiled to Baltimore, but it was the Clinton-Dix deal that suggested the Packers' front office wasn't all that sanguine about the team's playoff chances in 2018. The NFC North is tightly bunched, though, so if Rodgers has a healthy second half he's more than capable of carrying the team across the finish line himself, regardless of the on-the-fly rebuild happening in the secondary. Tom Brady's Patriots are in no such quandary. They've won five straight and already sit two games clear in the AFC East, and despite a raft of injuries on offense they're still fourth in the NFL in scoring. Regardless of who he has to throw to, the thought of Brady dissecting a defense that features a bunch of kids around a veteran cornerback being shifted to safety in Tramon Williams should fill Packers fans with dread, especially when Rodgers' own receiving corps isn't exactly 100 percent.

The Skinny:
•GB injuries: WR Randall Cobb (questionable, hamstring); WR Geronimo Allison (doubtful, groin)
•NE injuries: RB Sony Michel (questionable, knee); TE Rob Gronkowski (questionable, back); WR Julian Edelman (questionable, ankle); WR Josh Gordon (questionable, hamstring); WR Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, neck)
•GB DFS chalk: Rodgers (NE tied for 26th in TD passes allowed), Davante Adams (27 percent target share, 33 percent of team Air Yards, NE 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NE DFS chalk: none
•GB DFS tournament plays: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Aaron Jones gains 100 combined yards and a receiving TD. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and two more touchdowns, both to Adams. Sony Michel suits up, but James White leads the Pats backfield with 90 combined yards and a score. Brady throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Gronk, Edelman and Gordon, with the latter topping 100 yards. Patriots, 31-27

Oakland (+2.5) at San Francisco, 46.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: I'm not sure I've ever had as wild a disparity between picking winners but blowing the spread as I did in Week 8. Huh. Anyway, the Battle of the Bay is really more of a slap fight this year, as both teams come into this one with one lonely win. Jon Gruden's thinking remains a black box from the outside – I get that maybe Martavis Bryant is an annoyance during team meetings or whatever, but starting journeyman Brandon LaFell over him doesn't seem like a move designed to win games. Derek Carr, at least, didn't seem to mind, throwing multiple TDs last week for only the second time this season, but there's likely more turmoil ahead for an offense that's only had Jared Cook, of all people, as a remotely consistent producer through eight games. The Niners might be in worse shape, though. C.J. Beathard's wrist injury is making it difficult for him to even grip a football, much less throw one, and if he can't play on a short week, second-year QB Nick Mullens – who hasn't seen a snap in an NFL game and has spent most of his career on the practice squad – would get the nod, with Tom Savage as the backup. That's, uhh, not ideal. San Francisco could be forced to lean heavily on Matt Breida ... oh, wait, he's not 100 percent healthy either. Well, there's always Raheem Mostert. .. oh. Oh dear.

The Skinny:
•OAK injuries: none
•SF injuries: QB Beathard (questionable, wrist); RB Breida (questionable, ankle); WR Pierre Garcon (questionable, knee); RB Mostert (questionable, ankle); LB Reuben Foster (questionable, hamstring); CB Richard Sherman (questionable, calf); S Jaquiski Tartt (questionable, shoulder)
•OAK DFS chalk: Carr (SF 27th in QB rating against, T-30th in TD passes allowed)
•SF DFS chalk: George Kittle (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
•OAK DFS tournament plays: Raiders DST (see above), Seth Roberts (SF 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•SF DFS tournament plays: Breida (OAK 28th in YPC allowed, 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Doug Martin grinds out 60 combined yards, while Jalen Richard adds 50 combined yards. Carr throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Roberts and Cook. Breida suits up for the Niners and piles up 90 combined yards, while Alfred Morris scores a short touchdown. Mullens' first career NFL start doesn't go well, as he throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Tahir Whitehead returns to the house. Raiders, 27-13

Last week's record: 10-4, 3-11 ATS, 6-7-1 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 78-41-2, 52-62-7 ATS, 54-66-1 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS