NFL Game Previews: Vikings-Seahawks Matchup

Minnesota (+3) at Seattle, 45.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Story: The Vikings hold the second wild-card spot in the NFC and aren't even out of the picture for the NFC North title yet, but looking at their schedule, it's hard to see them as much of a threat. They're 0-4 against the league's elite teams (Rams, Saints, Bears and last week's loss to the Patriots), and their "best" win of the year came in Week 5 against the 6-6 Eagles, a victory that looks much less impressive now than it did back then. It's also hard to pinpoint exactly what the problem has been. Dalvin Cook's injury didn't help, but he's been back at full strength for a while now, even if the coaching staff won't give him a full workload. Adam Thielen's obviously been spectacular, and the pass rush has looked fearsome again once Everson Griffin returned to the team. Maybe Kirk Cousins really isn't a franchse QB after all. The Seahawks are only a half-game better than the Vikings in the standings, but they seem to be in much better shape. They've won three straight, and while they too haven't been able to keep up against the league's best teams (their most impressive win was over the Cowboys in Week 3), they at least seem pointed in the right direction. Russell Wilson in particular has been dialed in since Seattle's bye, posting a 16:1 TD:INT in the last six games, and with a three-headed rushing attack forcing defenses to stack the box, he's been able to pick apart secondaries.

The Skinny:
•MIN injuries: WR Stefon Diggs (questionable, knee); LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, ribs)
•SEA injuries: WR Doug Baldwin (questionable, hip); LB K.J. Wright (questionable, knee)
•MIN DFS chalk: none
•SEA DFS chalk: none
•MIN DFS tournament plays: Dalvin Cook (SEA 32nd in YPC allowed)
•SEA DFS tournament plays: Nick Vannett (MIN 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook breaks out with 130 combined yards and two TDs. Cousins throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, both to Thielen (who tops 100 yards), but he also gets picked off twice. Rashaad Penny leads the Hawks backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving score, while Chris Carson adds 70 combined yards. Wilson throws for 250 yards and three touchdowns, hitting David Moore, Jaron Brown and Nick Vannett, while also running in his first TD of the year. Seahawks, 38-31

N.Y. Jets (+3.5) at Buffalo, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Games like this make me wish North American sports were set up more like the EPL, and that this epic clash between 3-8 and 4-9 teams had relegation implications rather than draft pick ones. Bring back the Providence Steam Roller! The Jets played reasonably well last week ... for a while, then they rolled over in the fourth quarter for the Titans to drop their sixth consecutive decision. To be more accurate, the defense played well. The Jets scored 22 points without finding the end zone on offense, which is a weirdly impressive feat. Sam Darnold seems ready to return to the lineup from his foot injury, but his 11:14 TD:INT through his first nine NFL games isn't exactly encouraging, and Isaiah Crowell is now limping as well. The Bills, meanwhile, are getting by on Josh Allen's legs, which hardly seems sustainable. Allen's out-rushed LeSean McCoy 234 yards to 98 the last two games, but the flickers of chemistry the rookie QB's showing with young receivers Zay Jones and Robert Foster at least give the Buffalo attack some big-play potential. When these two squads met in Week 10 the result was a 41-10 squash by the Bills, and while that was with Allen still on the sidelines due to his elbow injury – in fact, both teams were missing their prized rookie QBs – this Buffalo team is just as capable of losing by huge margins as winning by them.

The Skinny:
•NYJ injuries: RB Crowell (questionable, toe); WR Robby Anderson (questionable, ankle)
•BUF injuries: none
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: Jets DST (BUF 31st in points per game, tied for 30th in giveaways)
•BUF DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-4 BUF, average score 28-20 BUF, average margin of victory 16 points. Three of the NYJ wins have come in the last five meetings.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 20s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Crowell plays, but Elijah McGuire leads the Jets backfield with 60 combined yards. Darnold throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Jermaine Kearse and gets picked off twice. McCoy manages 70 combined yards and a score. Allen throws for a career-high 250 yards and TDs to Charles Clay and Foster while running for 50 yards. Bills, 24-13

N.Y. Giants at Washington (+3.5), 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Giants, determined to screw up their chances of finding Eli Manning's successor in next year's draft, pulled out a huge upset over the Bears last week, giving them three wins in their last four games. Even their recent losses have been close – they haven't had a game decided by more than seven points since Week 6 against the Eagles. Saquon Barkley continues to carry the offense, running for more than 100 yards in three straight games and hitting for 100 scrimmage yards in five straight, and 11 of 12 this season. He did get held in check on the ground the last time these two teams met, but a 9-73-0 line on 10 targets kept him productive. That was also, like, three QBs ago for their NFC East rivals, and you might as well replace HTTR with Dame Shirley Bassey at this point as the team's fight song. Just a couple of weeks after Alex Smith's broken leg forced Washington fans to relive the Joe Theismann incident, his backup, Colt McCoy, suffered a fractured fibia of his own. The offense is now in the hands (and other body parts) of Mark Sanchez, who's only been in the organization for about three weeks, getting signed after Smith's injury. They've also now brought in 32-year-old Josh Johnson, who hasn't thrown a pass in a regular-season game since 20-freaking-11 and has an 0-5 record as a starter, to back up Sanchez. I gave the front office some grief for claiming Reuben Foster off waivers, but kudos to Dan Snyder, Bruce Allen and company for finding a way to basically make Colin Kaepernick's collusion case for him.

The Skinny:
•NYG injuries: S Landon Collins (IR, shoulder)
•WAS injuries: QB McCoy (out, leg); RB Adrian Peterson (questionable, shoulder); LB Zach Brown (questionable, illness); WR Josh Doctson (questionable, hip); WR Trey Quinn (IR, ankle)
•NYG DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS chalk: none
•NYG DFS tournament plays: Giants DST (WAS 27th in points per game)
•WAS DFS tournament plays: Jamison Crowder (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Maurice Harris (NYG 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 NYG, average score 22-16 NYG, average margin of victory 11 points. WAS has won four of the last six meetings, and all six have been decided by 10 points or less.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Barkley rolls for 130 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Manning throws for 220 yards and a second score to Odell Beckham. Peterson runs for 70 yards. Sanchez throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked four times, the last of which knocks him out of the game, and Johnson tosses two picks in relief – one of which Janoris Jenkins returns to the house. Giants, 31-6

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+8), 55.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Saints finally found a defense that could slow them down last week in Dallas. Their 10 points in the Thursday loss was not only their lowest output of the season, they hadn't scored fewer than 21 points before that – and that was way back in Week 2. Drew Brees and the boys had struck for at least 30 points in five consecutive games before getting lassoed by the Cowboys, so not only will they be looking to re-ignite the offense Sunday, they'll be looking to avenge their only other loss of the season, when they got bedazzled by Fitzmagic in Week 1. Jameis Winston is back (for now?) under center for the Bucs instead, but he's led the team to consecutive wins, which gives him something as close to job security as it's possible to get in Tampa this year. For the most part, though, scoring points hasn't been the team's problem. The defense sits near the bottom of the league in most categories, and most of the name-brand players they do have are either playing through injuries or landed on IR ages ago. The weather might give them an assist, as you never know how dome teams will handle a wet track, but otherwise the question seems to be whether Winston will be able to keep up with Brees, not whether Brees and his deep arsenal of weapons will light the Bucs up again.

The Skinny:
•NO injuries: none
•TB injuries: WR DeSean Jackson (out, thumb); DE Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, knee)
•NO DFS chalk: Brees (TB 32nd in QB rating against, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Alvin Kamara (TB 26th in YPC allowed), Michael Thomas (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•TB DFS chalk: Winston (NO 27th in QB rating against), Mike Evans (32 percent of team Air Yards, 11th in Air Yards per target, NO 27th in DVOA vs. WR1, 30th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
•NO DFS tournament plays: Mark Ingram (see above), Tre'Quan Smith (TB 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Dan Arnold (TB 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
•TB DFS tournament plays: Chris Godwin (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 NO, average score 27-23 NO, average margin of victory nine points. Nine of the 11 meetings have been decided by a single score, but the other two were 20-plus point victories by NO.
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, 9-10 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara leads the Saints backfield with 160 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Ingram adds 90 combined yards and two scores. Brees throws for 260 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Thomas and Arnold. Peyton Barber gets held to 50 yards. Winston throws for 340 yards and three TDs, finding Godwin, Evans and Ronald Jones II, but it's not enough. Saints, 41-27

New England at Miami (+7.5), 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Pats have now won eight of their last nine, a run that started when they plastered the Dolphins in Week 4, and while they're right in the thick of the battle for at least a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs, it still doesn't feel like everything's quite in sync yet. Tom Brady's only thrown four TDs in the last five games, and it's been the defense carrying them to victory more often than not – New England's held the opposition to 17 points or less in four of those five games, including matchups against Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, has a 5:1 TD:INT just in two games since returning, though his 341 total passing yards is no great shakes. The Fish are 6-6 and still in the wild-card chase, but four of those wins came against the Bills, Raiders and Jets (twice), so they hardly seem like a favorite to make the postseason, especially after losing NFL interception leader Xavien Howard to a knee injury.

The Skinny:
•NE injuries: none
•MIA injuries: WR Danny Amendola (questionable, knee); CB Howard (out, knee)
•NE DFS chalk: James White (MIA 27th in YPC allowed, 27th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: Sony Michel (see above)
•MIA DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 NE, average score 28-18 NE, average margin of victory 16 points. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by 18 points or more, all NE wins.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 14-15 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: White leads the Pats backfield with 90 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Michel adds 70 yards and a rushing score. Brady throws for 260 yards and a second touchdown to Josh Gordon. Drake picks up 70 combined yards and a receiving score, while Frank Gore grinds out 50 yards. Tannehill throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Kenny Stills. Patriots, 24-17

Baltimore (+6.5) at Kansas City, 53.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Now just a half-game back of the Steelers in the AFC North, the Ravens have momentum on their side after winning three straight games, albeit against teams with a combined .306 winning percentage (11-25). One of their backfield controversies got settled when Alex Collins landed on IR last weekend, though Gus Edwards had pretty much taken the starting job away from Collins anyway. Joe Flacco may or may not be recovered enough from his hip injury to re-take the reins of the offense, but with Lamar Jackson now 3-0 in his absence despite poor passing numbers, he might need the rookie to stumble to reclaim the No. 1 spot. Jackson's 265 rushing yards and two TDs in those wins have been impressive, but this could be the week his legs can't make up for his inaccuracy. KC's defense has had plenty of problems, but it's only allowed 95 rushing yards all season to opposing QBs. Of course, they've also given up a league-high four rushing TDs to quarterbacks, so if Baltimore can get into the red zone, Jackson could still do damage. The Chiefs' own rushing game unsurprisingly missed Kareem Hunt last week, but with Patrick Mahomes tossing his usual (!!!) four scores, it didn't much matter. The Ravens have only given up 16 passing TDs all season, though, tied for third fewest in the NFL, and it's not out of the question they find a way to keep KC's aerial attack in check. The only other team in the top five in QB rating that Mahomes has faced this year, the Jags, are also the only one to keep him out of the end zone entirely.

The Skinny:
•BAL injuries: QB Flacco (questionable, hip); RB Collins (IR, foot)
•KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (doubtful, foot); S Eric Berry (questionable, heel)
•BAL DFS chalk: Edwards (KC 31st in YPC allowed)
•KC DFS chalk: Travis Kelce (BAL 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
•BAL DFS tournament plays: none
•KC DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 20s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Edwards rambles for 100 yards and a score. Jackson throws for less than 200 yards again and while he finds Nick Boyle for a TD while running in one of his own, he also throws a pick-six to Anthony Hitchens. Spencer Ware ekes out 40 yards, while Damien Williams leads the Chiefs backfield with 60 combined yards. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Tyreek Hill and Kelce. Chiefs, 30-21

Indianapolis (+4.5) at Houston, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Colts' flop last week against the Jags might have cost them any real chance they had of catching the Texans in the AFC South. Even a win here leaves them two games back with three to play. (It also looks even worse considering what Tennessee did to that same Jacksonville team Thursday, but to be fair, Indy doesn't have anyone in its backfield the Jags could make look like a cross between Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson and The Incredible Hulk.) Andrew Luck still has a stellar 32:12 TD:INT this season, though, and Houston's secondary is banged up. That hasn't stopped the Texans from winning nine in a row, of course, a streak that started when they toppled Indy in Week 4. Surprisingly, they've been doing it by limiting Deshaun Watson's workload – over the Texans' last seven games he hasn't thrown for more than 239 yards, and last week's 31 attempts were his most during that stretch. He's been more effective and more efficient, though, posting a 13:4 TD:INT after stumbling to an 8:5 mark in the first five games of the year, and that run has coincided by better contributions from both the running game (Lamar Miller's run for 100-plus yards in four of the last six games) and the pass rush (last week's game against the Browns was the first time since Week 2 that neither J.J. Watt nor Jadeveon Clowney recorded a sack). Watson's proven in his brief career that he can produce fireworks when necessary, but the Texans are simply a better team when he doesn't have to.

The Skinny:
•IND injuries: WR T.Y. Hilton (questionable, shoulder); WR Dontrelle Inman (out, shoulder)
•HOU injuries: DE J.J. Watt (questionable, knee); WR Keke Coutee (questionable, hamstring)
•IND DFS chalk: Ebron (HOU 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•HOU DFS chalk: none
•IND DFS tournament plays: none
•HOU DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 IND, average score 23-19 IND, average margin of victory seven points. HOU has won four of the last six meetings, and the last nine have been decided by single digits.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 12 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Marlon Mack gains 60 combined yards. Luck throws for 310 yards and TDs to Hilton (who tops 100 yards) and Ebron. Miller manages 80 combined yards and a receiving score, while D'Onta Foreman vultures a rushing TD. Watson throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, both to Hopkins. Texans, 31-23

Atlanta (+5.5) at Green Bay, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's still hard to wrap my head around the idea that the Falcons are this bad. They've lost four consecutive games to sink to the bottom of the NFC South. They've got a losing record at home, which is still better than their 1-4 mark away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and they've been struggling despite excellent campaigns from Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Allowing almost 28 points a game (28th in the league) and nearly 400 yards a game (26th) creates a lot of headwind, and you have to think defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel is going to take the fall for such a disappointing season. The Packers, of course, already picked out their fall guy, sacking Mike McCarthy after somehow losing at Lambeau to Josh Rosen and the Cardinals. Maybe interim head coach Joe Philbin can spark some life into the team, even if it is probably too late to run Aaron Rodgers' proverbial table and sneak into the postseason, but then again Philbin was the offensive coordinator for a sluggish unit that was far less than the sum of its parts, so maybe not. It'll be another cold, breezy day in Green Bay on Sunday, which should favor the team used to playing outdoors, but after last week's dreadful performance anything's possible from the Pack.

The Skinny:
•ATL injuries: none
•GB injuries: none
•ATL DFS chalk: Jones (15th in Air Yards per target, GB 29th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
•GB DFS chalk: Rodgers (ATL 28th in QB rating against), Davante Adams (ATL 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•ATL DFS tournament plays: Tevin Coleman (GB 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•GB DFS tournament plays: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-20s, 11 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Coleman pops for 110 combined yards and a receiving TD. Ryan throws for 290 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Julio and Austin Hooper. Aaron Jones answers back with 130 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and a second TD to Adams. Packers, 27-24

Carolina at Cleveland (+1.5), 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Panthers are still technically in the wild-card hunt, but having lost four straight, their chances are looking bleak. The last three defeats have been by a combined 11 points, but only one of those has come against a team with a winning record, so it's hard to grant them any sort of moral victory. The offense has also lost Greg Olsen again, this time for the season, and there's only so many touches they can feed Christian McCaffrey no matter how versatile he is. It's easy to say "Oh, this is a must-win game, Carolina will show up," but, frankly, last week's tilt against the Bucs looked pretty must-win too, and it was a divisional game to boot, and they still fizzled. As far as the Browns go ... yeah, OK, picking them to beat the Texans outright looks pretty goofy in retrospect, but look, last week my gut said there were going to be some crazy upsets, and my gut was right! I just picked the wrong upsets. Baker Mayfield may have been picked off three times, but he also posted a YPA better than 9.0 for the third straight game – something Kirk Cousins hasn't done once yet this year. With Nick Chubb also on a roll (six TDs in the last four games), Cleveland's offense actually looks dangerous for the first time in years, even if the erratic defense sometimes has trouble holding up its end of the bargain. In the Browns' losses, they've given up 32.7 points a game, but in their non-losses (including the tie with the Steelers), only 16.6.

The Skinny:
•CAR injuries: TE Olsen (IR, foot); K Graham Gano (out, knee)
•CLE injuries: CB Denzel Ward (out, concussion)
•CAR DFS chalk: none
•CLE DFS chalk: none
•CAR DFS tournament plays: none
•CLE DFS tournament plays: Mayfield (CAR tied for 29th in passing TDs allowed), Antonio Calloway (CAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), David Njoku (CAR 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: McCaffrey reels off 130 combined yards and a TD. Cam Newton throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Devin Funchess. Chubb gains 100 combined yards and a score. Mayfield throws for 290 yards and three TDs, finding Njoku twice and Jarvis Landry once, but he also throws a pick-six to Luke Keuchly to keep things close. Chandler Catanzaro misses a potential game-winning FG late in the fourth quarter. Browns, 28-27

Denver at San Francisco (+4.5), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: While a potentially interesting battle between two of the better young running backs in the league won't happen, the Broncos will at least hold up their end. Phillip Lindsay has been a revelation as a rookie (as well as another data point in the "Don't waste premium draft capital on RBs" debate), and over the last six games he's gashed defenses for 591 rushing yards and seven TDs with a stunning 6.4 YPC. The Niners' run defense hasn't been bad this year (they creep into the top 10 in YPC, even if the usual flow of their games bumps them further down in rushing yards allowed per game), but they'll have their hands full, and Denver is likely to lean as heavily on Lindsay as they can with Emmanuel Sanders lost for the rest of the season – especially since they can't afford to give away a matchup against a 2-10 team if they want to stay in the wild-card hunt. San Francisco won't be able to trot out Matt Breida, but they may have stumbled across an undrafted gem of their own in Jeff Wilson, who gave them 134 scrimmage yards in his first real NFL action last week. Nick Mullens also threw for more than 400 yards in a loss to the Seahawks, but his 4:5 TD:INT over the last three games marks him as a future backup at best, even if he's capable of occasionally strong numbers in Kyke Shanahan's system.

The Skinny:
•DEN injuries: WR Sanders (IR, Achilles); CB Chris Harris (out, lower leg); LB Brandon Marshall (questionable, knee)
•SF injuries: RB Breida (out, ankle); WR Pierre Garcon (out, knee);
•DEN DFS chalk: none
•SF DFS chalk: none
•DEN DFS tournament plays: Case Keenum (SF 29th in QB rating against, tied for 29th in passing TDs allowed)
•SF DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lindsay rambles for 90 combined yards and a TD. Keenum throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Wilson bangs out 100 combined yards and his first NFL touchdown. Mullens throws for 240 yards and TDs to Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis but also gets picked off twice. Broncos, 27-21

Cincinnati (+14) at L.A. Chargers, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: So much for getting A.J. Green back in the lineup. He lasted all of 17 snaps last week before needing to be carted off the field, and foot surgery will allow him to mercifully avoid having to live through the end of this train wreck of a season for the Bengals. Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are still healthy (for now ...), but they're all that's left standing from what started out as one of the more dangerous offenses in the league in 2018. After a 4-1 start, Cincinnati's now 1-6 over its last seven, and Jeff Driskel doesn't seem like the kind of guy who's going to turn things around. The Chargers will also be missing one of their key attacking pieces in Melvin Gordon, but Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson seem more than capable of keeping the ground game humming against a defense that hasn't been able to contain running backs on land or air, or probably on the sea either. The Bolts are only one game back of the Chiefs in the AFC West, but the tiebrakers don't favor them so the first wild-card spot seems theirs, barring a late collapse.

The Skinny:
•CIN injuries: WR Green (IR, foot); LB Vontaze Burfict (out, concussion)
•LAC injuries: RB Gordon (out, knee)
•CIN DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS chalk: Ekeler / Jackson (CIN 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game, 31st in rushing TDs allowed. 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•CIN DFS tournament plays: Boyd (LAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•LAC DFS tournament plays: Tyrell Williams (CIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon grabs 80 combined yards, but Giovani Bernard vultures a red-zone TD catch. Driskel throws for less than 200 yards. Ekeler leads the Chargers backfield with 110 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Jackson adds 60 yards and a rushing TD. Philip Rivers throws for 270 yards and two more scores, hitting both Tyrell and Mike Williams. Chargers, 34-10

Detroit at Arizona (+2.5), 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: There's really no way to sugar-coat this. The Lions are getting Matthew Stafford killed. After being sacked only 13 times in Detroit's first seven games, he's been taken down exactly twice as often in the last six, including that 10-sack mauling at the hands of Minnesota's pass rush. While there are plenty of extenuating circumstances – some of it is on Stafford for holding onto the ball too long while waiting for someone in his decimated receiving corps to get even a sliver of separation; Kerryon Johnson's injury leaves them without a reliable running game; and the team's schedule has been particularly brutal over that stretch (in addition to Everson Griffen and the Vikings, they Aaron Donald and the Rams last week, and Khalil Mack and the Bears twice) – you'd think the offensive line and scheme would make adjustments to protect their QB a little more. It's a minor miracle Stafford's only nursing a back injury. And before you assume the sad-sack Cards will give him a reprieve, Arizona is tied for third in the NFL with 38 sacks. Ulp. Whether the Arizona offense can take advantage of whatever field position the pass rush provides is another question, though. The loss of Christian Kirk takes away the only thing remotely like a field-stretching option, and while David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald can still move the chains, rookie Josh Rosen isn't the kind of QB who can keep the offense moving down after down, drive after drive.

The Skinny:
•DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, back); RB Johnson (out, knee); WR Bruce Ellington (questionable, back); CB Darius Slay (questionable, ankle)
•ARI injuries: WR Kirk (IR, foot); S Budda Baker (questionable, knee)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•ARI DFS chalk: none
•DET DFS tournament plays: LeGarrette Blount (ARI 29th in rushing yards allowed per game, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Lions DST (ARI 32nd in points per game, 27th in giveaways)
•ARI DFS tournament plays: Josh Rosen (DET 31st in QB rating against), Chad Williams (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Theo Riddick leads the Lions backfield with 70 combined yards, while LeGarrette Blount adds 40 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked five times. DJ piles up 140 combined yards and a touchdown. Rosen throws for 200 yards and a score to Fitzgerald. Cardinals, 23-13

Pittsburgh at Oakland (+10.5), 51.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Aside from making Le'Veon Bell look entirely justified in his holdout, James Conner's ankle injury last week puts the Steelers in a precarious situation. They've lost consecutive games that they arguably should have won, and the Ravens are now only a half-game back in the AFC North. With games against the Pats and Saints following this one, Pittsburgh simply can't afford another letdown, but it will have to go into battle with unproven rookie Jaylen Samuels – who's more H-back and gadget player than pure running back – heading their depth chart. While that could mean veteran journeyman Stevan Ridley sees more carries than you might expect, what it probably means is that Ben Roethlisberger tries to shoulder even more of the load. He already leads the NFL with 517 pass attempts, putting him on pace for a career-high 689 (his previous high is 608), but any additional boost would see him challenge for Matt Stafford's NFL record of 727, set in 2012. Even the 689 would put Big Ben third on the all-time list. The Raiders, on the other hand, have nothing going for them other than a shot at the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. Their two wins were by a combined five points and against the Cardinals and Browns, and their minus-147 point differential easily paces the league. At least Derek Carr has looked a little better lately, posting a 6:0 TD:INT in the last three games after failing to throw a TD pass at all in three of the prior four contests. In fact, it's been seven games since he threw an INT, though his four lost fumbles over that stretch make it not quite as clean a run as it seems at first glance.

The Skinny:
•PIT injuries: RB Conner (out, ankle)
•OAK injuries: RB Doug Martin (questionable, knee); WR Seth Roberts (questionable, concussion); WR Martavis Bryant (IR, knee)
•PIT DFS chalk: Ben Roethlisberger (OAK 30th in QB rating against, 32nd in passing TDs allowed)
•OAK DFS chalk: none
•PIT DFS tournament plays: Jaylen Samuels / Stevan Ridley (OAK 28th in YPC allowed), Vance McDonald (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Steelers DST (OAK 29th in points per game, 28th in sacks allowed)
•OAK DFS tournament plays: Jared Cook (PIT 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Samuels looks good, gaining 80 combined yards and a TD in his first start, while Ridley chips in 50 yards. Roethlisberger throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, hitting JuJu Smith-Schuster, Vance McDonald and Ryan Switzer. Martin gains 60 yards. Carr throws for 310 yards and three scores of his own, two to Jared Cook and one to Marcell Ateman. Steelers, 31-24

Philadelphia (+3.5) at Dallas, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Despite all their struggles, the Eagles are still very much alive in the NFC East. A win here actually puts them in first place in the division, as well as avenging their Week 10 home loss to the Cowboys. They've discovered a running game with Josh Adams since then, but Carson Wentz remains curiously erratic, posting an 8:6 TD:INT over the last five games after posting a 10:1 TD:INT in his first five. Philly's secondary also remains a triage unit, and last time he faced them Amari Cooper hit for an 6-75-0 line on 10 targets – and he wasn't even fully up to speed on the Dallas playbook yet. The Cowboys have won four straight thanks in part to the balance Cooper's brought to the offense, but it's really the defense that's leading the way, with last Thursday's defusing of Drew Brees and the Saints as a prime-time coming-out party. While they still don't generate the kind of splash plays units like the Bears do on a regular basis, the Cowboys are second in the NFL in points allowed per game and fourth in yards allowed per game, and they've now had extra time to prepare for an offense they've already seen.

The Skinny:
•PHI injuries: LB Jordan Hicks (out, calf)
•DAL injuries: WR Michael Gallup (questionable, illness); LB Sean Lee (out, hamstring)
•PHI DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS chalk: Ezekiel Elliott (PHI 29th in YPC allowed)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: none
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Gallup (PHI 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 DAL, average score 22-20 PHI, average margin of victory 12 points.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Adams runs for 60 yards. Wentz throws for 250 yards and a TD to Zach Ertz but also throws a pick-six to Chidobe Awuzie. Ezekiel Elliott pounds out 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Dak Prescott throws for 230 yards and a score to Gallup. Cowboys, 24-16

L.A. Rams at Chicago (+3), 51.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: I can't imagine why a potential NFC title-game preview like this would have been flexed to a standalone slot. So weird. The Rams are comfortably wearing a "team of destiny" mantle, sitting with the NFL's best record at 11-1, and they've already locked up the NFC West crown thanks to their season sweep of the Seahawks. The offense has multiple dangerous weapons at Jared Goff's disposal, and Aaron Donald and the defense are disruptive, but the most important factor for them down the stretch might be pure emotion. It's impossible to judge just how much of a lift they've gotten from fans desperate for relief from Southern California's multiple recent tragedies. Comparisons to the post-Katrina Saints are probably going to spread like ... uhh, weeds. I'm going with "spread like weeds," but there's some merit to those comparisons, even if the circumstances are very different. The Bears, on the other hand, gave away a winnable game against the Giants last week, and with Mitchell Trubisky back under center you can be sure they'll be geared up for this one. The key for them might come down to how much pressure Khalil Mack and the pass rush can get on Goff. The Rams QB has only been brought down 26 times this season through 12 games, but they've come in bunches – the Broncos, Packers and Chiefs each got to Goff him five times, and all three teams rank in the top five in the NFL in sacks coming into this week. Chicago's pass rush, tied for fifth in the NFL with Denver at 37 sacks, is right there with all of them.

The Skinny:
•LAR injuries: none
•CHI injuries: S Eddie Jackson (questionable, shin)
•LAR DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS chalk: none
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Jordan Howard / Tarik Cohen (LAR 30th in YPC allowed)
•CHI DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-20s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Todd Gurley gets held to a season-low 70 combined yards but does score. Goff throws for 260 yards and TDs to Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds and gets sacked, yep, five times. Tarik Cohen leads the Bears backfield with 80 combined yards and a score. Trubisky throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Allen Robinson, and he also runs in a TD of his own. A Mack strip sack of Goff sets up Cody Parkey's game-winning field goal. Bears, 27-24

Jacksonville (+4.5) at Tennessee, 37.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: Where did that come from? Apparently the thing holding the Jags defense back was somehow Blake Bortles, because once he was on the bench the unit woke up and shut out, not just down, Andrew Luck. Of course, it took a shutout to end their seven-game losing streak, as Bortles' replacement Cody Kessler only led the offense to two field goals, so their problems aren't exactly solved. Having thrown a monkey wrench into the Colts' playoff plans, they'll now try to do the same to another AFC South rival. The Titans nearly blew one last week to the Jets, needing 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to avoid the upset, but at 6-6 they're still in the wild-card chase. Tennesee's offense remains inconsistent, but Marcus Mariota has thrown two TD passes in each of the last four games he's managed to finish. They need more out of their backfield, though, as Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis have been more Dunder Mifflin than thunder and lightning, and neither of them have managed even 70 scrimmage yards in the last four weeks. They might not need many points against a Kessler-led offense, but they have to scrounge up something.

The Skinny:
•JAC injuries: none
•TEN injuries: none
•JAC DFS chalk: none
•TEN DFS chalk: none
•JAC DFS tournament plays: Donte Moncrief (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
•TEN DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 TEN, average score 22-21 TEN, average margin of victory eight points. Only three of the last 11 meetings have been decided by more than one score, but all three have come since 2016.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette returns from his one-game suspension with 100 combined yards. Kessler throws for under 200 yards but does hit Moncrief for a score, and Dede Westbrook returns a punt to the house for the Jags. Henry rumbles for 70 yards, while Lewis adds 50 combined yards. Mariota throws for 210 yards and finds Tajae Sharpe for one touchdown while running in another. Titans, 20-17

Last week's record: 9-7, 5-11 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 118-72-2, 82-101-9 ATS, 83-106-3 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS