NFL Game Previews: Saints-Panthers Matchup

New Orleans at Carolina (+6), 51.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Story: Heading into the half last week it looked like the Saints were going to give away another game to the Bucs, but they rallied after the break and in the process claimed the top spot in the NFC. Drew Brees posted poor passing numbers for the second straight game, but in this case it was more a product of New Orleans getting their points on the ground rather than through the air. It's still not the most encouraging trend, and it's made all the non-Michael Thomas options in the passing game extra-volatile at the worst possible time for fantasy purposes. This could be the week they all snap back to life, though. The Panthers have lost five straight games to a group of opponents that's less a murderer's row than a pickpoket's posse, including the Bengals, Lions and Browns. They've coughed up over 30 points and nearly 275 passing yards a game during that losing streak, and while Christian McCaffrey valiantly tries to keep Carolina's season afloat – he's topped 100 scrimmage yards in six straight games, scoring 10 touchdowns over that stretch – he's going to need to start getting some help from the defense if the team's are going to stay alive in the wild-card hunt.

The Skinny:
•NO injuries: none
•CAR injuries: QB Cam Newton (questionable, shoulder)
•NO DFS chalk: Brees (CAR tied for 29th in passing TDs allowed)
•CAR DFS chalk: Christian McCaffrey (NO 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•NO DFS tournament plays: Tre'Quan Smith (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Dan Arnold (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
•CAR DFS tournament plays: D.J. Moore (NO 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-5 NO including postseason, average score 27-25 NO, average margin of victory 11 points. NO has won three straight, including last season's 31-26 victory in the wild-card round, and four of the last five.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alvin Kamara racks up 110 combined yards and a score, while Mark Ingram adds 70 yards and a TD. Brees throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Thomas and Smith. McCaffrey fires back with 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Newton throws for 240 yards and a TD to Moore while running for 40 yards and a score of his own. Saints, 34-24

Green Bay (+6) at Chicago, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: There are some rivarly games this week with very lopsided recent results, but of all of them, this is the one that seems least likely to stick to form. The 5-7-1 Packers are somewhat improbably still chasing the second wild-card spot, but there's four six-wins teams between them and the playoffs and they'd lose tiebreakers to two of them. Green Bay did look a bit better as a whole last week in their first game of the post-Mike McCarthy era, but the switch in coaching didn't do much for Aaron Rodgers, who failed to throw for 200 yards for the third time in the last five contests. He'll also be facing a Bears defense that just held the Rams – one of only three teams in the league averaging better than 30 points a game – to a measly two field goals. Mitchell Trubisky did look fairly awful in his first game back from a shoulder injury, but Chicago's two-headed running attack is in peak form and providing offense enough. The Packers have dominated this series in recent years – including a 24-23 win in Week 1 when the Bears blew a 20-point lead – but Chicago isn't going to look past a bitter rival the way they did the Giants a couple of weeks ago. The only thing sweeter than clinching a division title in front of the home crowd and avenging that Week 1 loss would be ending the cheeseheads' season at the same time.

The Skinny:
•GB injuries: none
•CHI injuries: WR Allen Robinson (questionable, hip)
•GB DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS chalk: none
•GB DFS tournament plays: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: Bears DST (CHI third in points allowed, tied for fourth in sacks, first in takeaways)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 GB, average score 30-20 GB, average margin of victory 12 points. GB has won five straight meetings.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind. 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Aaron Jones manages 80 combined yards. Rodgers throws for 220 yards and a TD to Randall Cobb. Tarik Cohen leads the Bears backfield with 130 combined yards and a receiving score, while Jordan Howard thunders for 70 yards and a touchdown. Trubisky plays game manager, throwing for less than 200 yards but running for 50 and finding Taylor Gabriel for a second TD. Bears, 24-13

Detroit (+2.5) at Buffalo, 39.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: After a brutal six-game stretch in which they went 1-5 against opponents with a combined .636 winning percentage, the Lions finally got a soft opponent last week in the Cardinals and managed to come out on top, although they hardly looked impressive doing it. Detroit's offense is just a mess right now – Matthew Stafford isn't 100 percent and has no one he really trusts to throw to, and their running game is ragged without Kerryon Johnson. They get another winnable game Sunday against the Bills, the most hilariously inconsistent team in the league. They've lost four games this year by more than 20 points and a fifth by 19, but they also hold two wins over teams still very much alive in the playoff race. Josh Allen looks like the kind of quarterback Tim Tebow boosters thought he would become, throwing bombs and running wild, but he's also completed at least 60 percent of his passes exactly once all year, which doesn't cut it in the modern NFL. This game might well hinge on whether the Lions can keep Allen in the pocket. They've given up a league-low 62 rushing yards in total to opposition QBs this season – Allen's beaten that number in each of the last three games – but a look at their schedule doesn't show a lot of mobile quarterbacks. Detroit did limit the trio of Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and Mitchell Trubisky to 35 yards on eight carries, though.

The Skinny:
•DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, back); RB Johnson (out, knee); WR Bruce Ellington (out, hamstring)
•BUF injuries: RB LeSean McCoy (questionable, hamstring); RB Chris Ivory (questionable, shoulder); K Stephen Hauschka (questionable, back)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•DET DFS tournament plays: Lions DST (BUF 31st in points per game, 31st in giveaways)
•BUF DFS tournament plays: Allen (DET 30th in QB rating against), Robert Foster (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Charles Clay (DET 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Theo Riddick leads the Lions backfield with 70 combined yards and a receiving TD. Stafford throws for less than 200 yards. McCoy plays, but Ivory leads the Bills backfield with 50 yards. Allen gets held to 30 rushing yards but throws for 220 yards and finds Foster and Deonte Thompson for scores, although he also gets picked off twice. Bills, 14-10

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Baltimore, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Jameis Winston did throw multiple TD passes for the fourth straight game last week, but that was about the only silver lining to Tampa's loss. The team can only play spoiler at this point, and the "explosive" offense that was the talk of the league earlier in the year hasn't been all that – the Bucs have actually scored more than 30 points only twice since that Fitzmagic-fueled 48-40 Week 1 win over the Saints, and they managed to lose both those games. It's long past time they give second-round pick Ronald Jones II a longer look, but the rookie's only gotten 13 snaps on offense and four touches the last two weeks while Peyton Barber was plodding out a 2.9 YPC. Maybe Jones is a bust, which would end up being a scouting failure, but not even bothering to find out whether he's an upgrade or not is purely a coaching failure. The Ravens, on the other hand, are basically one ridiculous fourth-and-nine play from Patrick Mahomes away from being in first place in the AFC North, and given the way the Steelers are unraveling, it might only be a matter of time before Baltimore is perched at the top of the division like a certain bird on a bust of George Halas above Ben Roethlisberger's door. (That reminds me ... why hasn't Dontari Poe played for Baltimore yet in his career? The jersey sales alone would justify bringing him in.) John Harbaugh has some tough choices ahead of him, though. Joe Flacco is more or less healthy again, and while Lamar Jackson hasn't set the world on fire, he also hasn't really done anything that would warrant going back to the bench. There's been loose talk of a rotation at QB, but this isn't the Big Ten – even if Tampa's defense sometimes looks like it would have trouble containing Jim Harbaugh's Michigan team, much less actual NFL units.

The Skinny:
•TB injuries: WR DeSean Jackson (out, thumb); DE Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, knee)
•BAL injuries: QB Flacco (questionable, hip)
•TB DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•TB DFS tournament plays: Cameron Brate (BAL 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
•BAL DFS tournament plays: Jackson (TB 32nd in QB rating against, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Gus Edwards (TB 29th in rushing TDs allowed), John Brown (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Michael Crabtree (TB 27th in DVOA vs. WR2), Mark Andrews (TB 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 60-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barber leads the Bucs backfield with 40 yards. Winston throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Brate while running in a score of his own. Edwards gains 60 yards and a touchdown, while Kenneth Dixon adds 60 combined yards and a TD. Jackson throws for less than 200 yards and runs for 50, hitting Crabtree for a score. Ravens, 27-20

Arizona (+8.5) at Atlanta, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Josh Rosen's YPAs the last five weeks: 5.3, 6.8, 5.5, 5.7, 5.9, and the only really stout defense he's faced in that time was the Chargers. Yeah, it's been rough. Arizona's offense might just be the worst unit in the league at this point, depending on how you feel about the QB situation in Washington, and it only gets worse with David Johnson apparently playing through a quad strain. It's going to be very interesting to see whether they double-dip at QB in next year's draft, given Rosen's completely underwhelming showing so far. Somehow, despite all that, the Falcons only have one more win than the Cards. They've lost five straight, and surprisingly the offense has been struggling as much as the defense over that stretch – they haven't scored more than 20 points in any of those losses, which allowing an average of 28.2. An attack led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones should never have that much trouble putting points on the board, but here we are. It doesn't help that Calvin Ridley has been playing hurt – the rookie's been held less than 40 yards in four of those five losses, only breaking out against the Saints, but he's hardly the centerpiece of the passing game. The Atlanta defense, at least, has multiple key injuries to pin their underperformance on. The offense, on the other hand, may be looking for a new coordinator in the offseason.

The Skinny:
•ARI injuries: S Budda Baker (questionable, knee)
•ATL injuries: none
•ARI DFS chalk: Johnson (ATL 30th in YPC allowed, 26th in rushing yards allowed)
•ATL DFS chalk: none
•ARI DFS tournament plays: Rosen (ATL 29th in QB rating against), Larry Fitzgerald (ATL 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), Trent Sherfield (ATL 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
•ATL DFS tournament plays: Falcons DST (ARI 32nd in points per game, 27th in giveaways), Tevin Coleman (ARI tied for 29th in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: DJ picks up 90 combined yards. Rosen throws for an inefficient 220 yards and a TD to Fitzgerald. Coleman busts out for 140 combined yards and a touchdown, while Ito Smith adds 50 combined yards. Ryan throws for 250 yards and TDs to Julio and Mohamed Sanu. Falcons, 27-16

Oakland (+3) at Cincinnati, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Raiders' victory last week might have been more a case of Pittsburgh losing than Oakland winning, but it counts all the same. At 3-10 they're now in a three-way tie with the Niners and Cards for the NFL's worst record, which means the Raiders can't really afford another upset if they want that No. 1 pick. Derek Carr has been playing much better, though – he posted his best YPA of the year en route to his first 300-yard game since Week 4 against the Steelers, and he has an 8:0 TD:INT in his last four games – and while the Amari Cooper trade has been huge for the Cowboys, it's strangely looking like addition by subtraction on the other end too. The Bengals have fully embraced their Bungles nickname, losing five straight and six of their last seven, and with A.J. Green and Andy Dalton on IR and the looming threat of Hue Jackson taking over the team in 2019 hanging over the fan base's collective heads, there isn't a lot to look forward to. Hilariously, they still aren't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, as they could win the AFC North if they run the table and the only win the rest of the division manages is the Browns beating the Ravens in Week 17, but that's not so much a narrow path as a tightrope walk across a flashlight beam.

The Skinny:
•OAK injuries: none
•CIN injuries: LB Vontaze Burfict (out, concussion)
•OAK DFS chalk: none
•CIN DFS chalk: Joe Mixon (OAK 31st in rushing yards allowed)
•OAK DFS tournament plays: Doug Martin (CIN 32nd in rushing yards allowed, tied for 30th in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB), Marcell Ateman (CIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•CIN DFS tournament plays: Bengals DST (OAK 29th in points per game, tied for 28th in sacks allowed), Jeff Driskel (OAK 31st in QB rating against, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), C.J. Uzomah (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Cody Core (OAK 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Martin gains a season-high 100 combined yards and a TD. Carr throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Ateman and Jalen Richard. Mixon responds with 150 combined yards and two scores. Driskel throws for 210 yards and two TDs to John Ross and Uzomah. Bengals, 28-24

Tennessee (+2.5) at N.Y. Giants, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Titans have won two straight to remain firmly in the mix for a wild-card spot, and Derrick Henry has gotten a few extra days to rest after steamrolling the Jags last Thursday. To say his 238-yard, four-TD performance came out of nowhere would be a massive understatement – that yardage total is more than four times greater than his next-best effort in 2018. Dion Lewis isn't exactly pushing for more touches these days either, so while Henry won't come close to a repeat, he could seize the starting job outright. They need someone to step up on offense, as Marcus Mariota's 4:3 TD:INT in the last four games isn't going to get them over the finish line. The Giants are also finally playing up to their potential, winning two straight games and four of five since their bye, even if it's far too late to salvage their playoff hopes. Odell Beckham will be sidelined again, but Evan Engram took advantage last week with his best game of the season, and lined up against Malcolm Butler it could be Sterling Shepard's turn this time to take advantage of the extra targets. The offense still flows through Saquon Barkley, though – he's closing in on 2,000 scrimmage yards, and reaching Eric Dickerson's rookie record of 2,212 isn't out of the question given the roll he's on right now. He's averaging 159.3 combined yards over his last four games, and needs to average 153 a game over the final three contests to tie Dickerson.

The Skinny:
•TEN injuries: TE Jonnu Smith (IR, knee)
•NYG injuries: WR Beckham (out, quad)
•TEN DFS chalk: none
•NYG DFS chalk: none
•TEN DFS tournament plays: Corey Davis (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NYG DFS tournament plays: Giants DST (TEN 27th in points per game, tied for 28th in sacks allowed), Sterling Shepard (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, 13-14 mph wind, 40-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry runs for 60 yards but does score. Mariota throws for 230 yards and dashes for 40 more, tossing a TD pass to Davis. Barkley gallops for 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Eli Manning throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Shepard (who tops 100 yards) and Bennie Fowler. Giants, 27-17

Miami (+7) at Minnesota, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Not only did last week's miracle upset of the Patriots put the Dolphins in the driver's seat for a wild-card spot thanks to their 4-1 divisional record, it actually kept them alive for a possible AFC East title. Nobody but New England has worn that crown since 2009, of course, so it's hardly a likely outcome (especially when you look at the Pats' remaining schedule), but even having hope in Week 15 is something of an accomplishment. Ryan Tannehill has an 8:1 TD:INT in three games since getting back in the lineup, which actually echoes his performance over the first three weeks of the season. To put it another way, the Fish are 5-1 when Tannehill throws multiple TDs, so if they do make the playoffs they could be more dangerous than anyone's giving them credit for right now. The Vikings are also fighting for their playoff lives – at 6-6-1, they're actually in the second NFC spot right now, but there are three other six-win teams breathing down their necks. They also keep coming up short against other likely postseason squads – their last four losses have come against the Saints, Bears, Pats and Seahawks. Their refusal to fully unleash Dalvin Cook, who hasn't seen 20 touches in a game since Week 1, makes sense from a long-term perspective but does little to help them win games in 2018, which you'd think would be the focus at the moment. That lack of a consistent running attack is also putting too much on Kirk Cousins' shoulders and getting the whole team out of sync. The Vikings are 1-5-1 in games where he attempts 40 or more passes, which isn't the kind of result you're looking for when your drop $84 million on a quarterback.

The Skinny:
•MIA injuries: CB Xavien Howard (doubtful, knee)
•MIN injuries: LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, ribs)
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•MIN DFS chalk: none
•MIA DFS tournament plays: Kenyan Drake (MIN 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•MIN DFS tournament plays: Cook (MIA tied for 29th in rushing yards allowed)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Drake piles up 110 combined yards and a receiving TD. Tannehill throws for 240 yards and a second score to Danny Amendola. Cook erupts with 140 combined yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 250 yards and TDs to Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Vikings, 24-20

Washington (+7) at Jacksonville, 36.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: OK, sure, Josh Johnson looked competent in relief last week against a defense that was prepared for the less mobile Mark Sanchez. Let's see how he does against a team that gets to study him first, assuming, of course, that the Jags have a Betamax player in their building somewhere to watch all the dusty old Johnson game tapes. Washington doesn't really have much else going for them on offense other than his scrambling ability. Jordan Reed is hurt again, and Adrian Peterson might be running on fumes – since toting the rock 50 times in Weeks 7 and 8, the veteran has a 3.8 YPC and has only topped 68 yards once, bottoming out at 10 carries for 16 yards last week. They're still in the wild-card mix at 6-7, but four straight losses and a revolving door at QB has their trajectory pointed in completely the wrong direction. The Jags season, on the other hand, effectively ended a long time ago, and the Derrick Henry-sized hole left in their front seven after last week points to their lack of focus rather than a lack of talent. They're playing for draft position and Blake Bortles' successor, but you'd think there would be too much pride in a defense that was the toast of the league 12 months ago to let AP do to them what Henry did.

The Skinny:
•WAS injuries: TE Reed (out, toe); RB Chris Thompson (questionable, illness); WR Josh Doctson (questionable, concussion); QB Colt McCoy (out, leg)
•JAC injuries: K Josh Lambo (questionable, groin)
•WAS DFS chalk: none
•JAC DFS chalk: Jaguars DST (WAS 28th in points per game)
•WAS DFS tournament plays: Washington DST (JAC 30th in points per game, 30th in giveaways), Josh Johnson (JAC 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QB)
•JAC DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Peterson runs for 80 yards. Johnson throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but does run for 50 yards. Leonard Fournette bangs out 100 yards and a score. Cody Kessler throws for less than 200 yards as well but hits Donte Moncrief for a TD. Jaguars, 20-6

Dallas (+3) at Indianapolis, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Cowboys have won five straight games to seize control of the NFC East, and the turnaround since Amari Cooper joined the team has been undeniable. A plodding, at times downright putrid offense offense suddenly has a vertical element to it, preventing teams from selling out to stop Ezekiel Elliott and giving Dak Prescott a target he can count on. Prescott's posted a YPA of better than 8.0 in three straight games, a figure he topped just once in seven games prior to the Cooper trade, and a team that scored more than 20 points only twice without the receiver has now done it in four of those five wins. That's still not Chiefs/Saints territory, but it's an attack that's more than good enough to make the team a legit threat when paired with a top-five defense. The Colts have been nearly as hot, though, winning six of their last seven to shoot them into the wild-card picture. Andrew Luck has been nearly unstoppable at home, posting a 19:4 TD:INT and 116.2 QB rating in six games at Lucas Oil Stadium (compared to a 15:9 ratio and an 85.9 rating in seven road games), and good as Dak and Amari have been, Luck and T.Y. Hilton have been at it for a lot longer than the Dallas duo. With Eric Ebron also in the mix as Luck's preferred end-zone target, the Cowboys may have to out-score the Colts rather than slow them down through the air if they want to steal this one.

The Skinny:
•DAL injuries: none
•IND injuries: WR Hilton (questionable, ankle)
•DAL DFS chalk: none
•IND DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Amari Cooper (16.7 average Air Yards per target with DAL, would be good for fifth in NFL over full season; IND 28th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
•IND DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Elliott racks up 110 combined yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Cooper while running in a score of his own. Marlon Mack manages 50 combined yards but does score. Luck throws for 350 yards and three TDs, hitting Ebron twice and Chester Rogers once while Hilton tops 100 yards again. Colts, 31-24

Seattle at San Francisco (+4.5), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: Just go down and look at the "Head-to-head record" section here. It's kind of unbelievable. Since Seattle won 23-17 in the NFC title game en route to their Super Bowl win in 2014, they've been living rent-free in the Niners' heads, and while Week 13's 43-16 drubbing might have been the worst of it (so far ... ?), it was hardly out of line with previous results like a 37-18 rout in 2016, or the three straight games in which San Francisco only managed a single score (19-3, 17-7 and 20-3). Russell Wilson threw for four TDs against them a couple weeks ago and only needed 17 pass attempts to do it. In theory, the Seahawks might get caught looking ahead – they can't catch the Rams for the division title, but are two games up on the teams chasing them for wild-card berths – but the Broncos' loss last week in Levi's Stadium was probably enough of a wake-up call to prevent that. The Niners haven't had much go right for them this season as they careen toward an early draft pick, but at least they keep finding gems in the backfield. Jeff Wilson has 230 scrimmage yards the last two weeks, and with Matt Breida still on the mend he figures to get a heavy workload against a soft Seattle run defense – assuming that the game remains close enough for San Francisco to stick to its running game.

The Skinny:
•SEA injuries: WR Doug Baldwin (questionable, hip); RB Rashaad Penny (out, knee); LB K.J. Wright (out, knee)
•SF injuries: RB Breida (questionable, ankle); WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable, calf); WR Dante Pettis (questionable, foot)
•SEA DFS chalk: Wilson (SF 28th in QB rating against, tied for 29th in passing TDs allowed)
•SF DFS chalk: none
•SEA DFS tournament plays: David Moore (second in NFL in average Air Yards per target, SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR3, 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)
•SF DFS tournament plays: Wilson (SEA 29th in YPC allowed)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 11-1 SEA including postseason. Average score 25-12 SEA, average margin of victory 13 points. SEA has won 10 straight meetings, and seven of their last nine wins have been by double digits.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, 10-12 mph wind, 30-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chris Carson picks up 70 combined yards and a score, while Mike Davis adds 50 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns to Tyler Lockett and Moore. Wilson bangs out 70 yards and a score. Nick Mullens throws for 260 yards and TDs to Pettis and Kendrick Bourne but gets picked off twice, one of which Tedric Thompson returns to the house. Seahawks, 38-21

New England at Pittsburgh (+2), 52.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: So, which last-minute loss was worse last week? The Pats arguably suffered the bigger gut punch, dropping a game against an AFC East rival that they had it in the bag until the Dolphins slapped together a final play that featured everything except the Stanford marching band, but at least New England got beat by a decent opponent. The Steelers lost to the Raiders, their third straight defeat, and given the turmoil surrounding the team in the wake of Le'Veon Bell's holdout and Ben Roethlisberger's pre-Festivus Airing of Grievances, it really feels like the season is spiraling down the drain for Pittsburgh. That said, both teams are still leading their divisions, so whichever one of them wins here should be able to put any recent unpleasantness behind them. The flip side of that is that one of them will be on (or stay on) a bona fide losing streak during crunch time ... while the team itself isn't really playing like the Pats are normally expected to play in December, Tom Brady is holding up his end. He's posted an 8.3 YPA or better in three straight games since the Pats' bye with a 6:1 TD:INT, and Rob Gronkowski is also back in top form, at least as a receiver (not so much as a tackler). With Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon, that gives Brady the weapons to match Pittsburgh's outstanding duo of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. One of those two guys (if not both) have scored in every game this game, and they have 11 100-yard performances between them. The Pats' defensive game plan of "taking away their opponent's best option" is basically a cliche at this point, but how would you even choose which of them to try to shut down?

The Skinny:
•NE injuries: none
•PIT injuries: RB James Conner (questionable, ankle)
•NE DFS chalk: Gronkowski (PIT 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
•PIT DFS chalk: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: none
•PIT DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sony Michel racks up 120 combined yards and a TD, while James White adds 50 combined yards. Brady throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns, two to Gronk and one to Gordon. Jaylen Samuels leads the Steelers backfield with 80 combined yards. Roethlisberger throws for 340 yards and three TDs of his own, hitting AB twice and JuJu once with the former topping 100 yards, but a late pick ends the comeback attempt. Patriots, 34-27

Philadelphia (+11) at L.A. Rams, 53.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: Welp. This season was already pretty much toast for the defending champs, though technically they're still in the clump of six-win teams looking for a wild-card spot, but Carson Wentz's back trouble is going to force them to walk the same path they did in 2017, with Nick Foles under center, if they're going to sneak into the postseason. Foles wasn't able replicate last year's heroics when he filled in for Wentz to begin the campaign, but maybe he's a better winter player than an autumn player. Josh Adams also fell back to earth last week against the Cowboys, but he faces a much less challenging matchup this time around. After the offense went cold (literally) in Chicago last week, the Rams suddenly need some help to get back the No. 1 seed in the NFC from the Saints. They've got an extremely friendly closing schedule, though, and fantasy GMs can't be upset that they should have something to play for in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Cards and Niners. Jared Goff has looked like a rookie again the last two weeks, throwing for only 387 yards (a total he's topped in three separate games this year) with a 1:5 TD:INT, but facing a gutted Philly secondary that just let Dak Prescott, of all people, torch them for 455 yards and three TDs should get him back on track.

The Skinny:
•PHI injuries: QB Wentz (doubtful, back); LB Jordan Hicks (out, calf)
•LAR injuries: none
•PHI DFS chalk: none
•LAR DFS chalk: Robert Woods (PHI 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: Adams (LAR 32nd in YPC allowed)
•LAR DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Adams streaks for 90 yards and a touchdown. Foles throws for 220 yards and a score to Alshon Jeffery but gets picked off twice, one of which Aqib Talib returns for a TD. Todd Gurley piles up 140 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Goff throws for 300 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Woods and Brandin Cooks. Rams, 38-17

Houston at N.Y. Jets (+6), 41.5 o/u – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Texans finally lost again last week, but they're still two games up on the Colts and Titans in the AFC South and control their own destiny, especially looking at their remaining schedule. Their receiving corps is being held together by chewing gum and duct tape – even No. 4 WR DeAndre Carter is on the injury report this week – but assuming Deshaun Watson and the J.J. Watt-led defense take care of business here, they should have plenty of time to heal up before the playoffs. Oh, Watt's banged up too? And both their starting corners? Huh. The Jets dealt a cruel blow to their draft position by beating the Bills last week, but they've still got a shot at locking down a top-five pick if they play to form down the stretch, and it's not like they'll be fishing for a franchise QB anyway with Sam Darnold under center. Trenton Cannon may finally get a chance to live up to his awesome (and regionally appropriate) name as the only fully healthy RB on the roster, and the 3-4 defense has some major depth issues at linebacker, which probably bodes well for Lamar Miller.

The Skinny:
•HOU injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, foot); DE Watt (questionable, knee); WR Keke Coutee (questionable, hamstring)
•NYJ injuries: RB Isaiah Crowell (out, toe); WR Quincy Enunwa (out, ankle); RB Elijah McGuire (questionable, ankle); LB Darron Lee (out, suspension)
•HOU DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•HOU DFS tournament plays: Texans DST (NYJ 26th in points per game, tied for 29th in giveaways), Miller (NYJ 27th in rushing yards allowed)
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: Chris Herndon (HOU 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 8-10 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Miller piles up 140 combined yards and a TD, while D'Onta Foreman also busts out a long touchdown run. Watson throws for 210 yards and scores to Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas. McGuire leads the Jets backfield with 60 combined yards, while Cannon adds 50. Darnold throws for 230 yards and a TD to Robby Anderson. Texans, 31-10

Cleveland (+3) at Denver, 45.5 o/u – Saturday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: If the Browns win out, they'll finish above .500 for the first time since 2007, the year they drafted Joe Thomas. Derek Anderson was not only their starting QB that season, he represented them in the Pro Bowl. Yeah, it's been a minute. Baker Mayfield has yet to really get everything together for them, but he has done at least one of the following in seven consecutive games: topped an 80 percent completion rate (twice), thrown for more than 300 yards (once), thrown multiple TDs (five times). Those are the building blocks of a franchise quarterback. Nick Chubb's also finishing off his first NFL campaign in style, scoring a rushing TD in five straight games while catching at least three passes in four straight, and Cleveland's only lacking a stud No. 1 WR to put together a set of fantasy triplets that could drive the team's offense for years. The Broncos' flop in San Francisco last week put a serious dent in their playoff aspirations. If they run the table, nine wins could get them the second wild-card spot, but there are now four teams (Miami, whichever of Baltimore or Pittsburgh doesn't win the AFC North, Indy and Tennessee) with seven wins they'd have to leap-frog to get there. Case Keenum hasn't thrown for more than 205 yards in four straight games with DT and now Emmanuel Sanders no longer available, and the lack of an aerial threat has finally had an impact on Phillip Lindsay as defenses stack the box and dare Denver's motley collection of rookie targets to get some separation.

The Skinny:
•CLE injuries: CB Denzel Ward (out, concussion)
•DEN injuries: CB Chris Harris (out, leg)
•CLE DFS chalk: none
•DEN DFS chalk: none
•CLE DFS tournament plays: none
•DEN DFS tournament plays: Lindsay (CLE 28th in rushing yards allowed, tied for 30th in rusing TDs allowed)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb bangs out 90 combined yards and a score. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and two TDs to Antonio Callaway and David Njoku. Lindsay bounces back with 120 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Keenum throws for 220 yards and engineers a late drive for a game-winning field goal. Broncos, 23-21

L.A. Chargers (+3.5) at Kansas City, 53.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: So, on the one hand, this game might not matter as much as it seems on the surface. The 11-2 Chiefs already have a playoff spot locked up, and the 10-3 Chargers should be soon to follow with no other team in the AFC wild card picture having more than seven wins. A win here also doesn't put the Bolts in first place in the AFC West, as Kansas City would still have a superior division record (the next tiebreaker after head-to-head record) and an easier remaining schedule. Still, you know that Philip Rivers wants to show that young whippersnapper playing QB opposite him here a thing or two, after Patrick Mahomes had his Week 1 coming-out party at the Chargers' expense. Rivers failed to throw multiple TDs for the first time all season last week against the Bengals, somehow, but not having Melvin Gordon in the backfield to keep the Cincy defense honest might have had something to do with that. Gordon hasn't officially been ruled out yet, but the short week, potentially cold and wet conditions, and the fact that it doesn't really make sense to risk him with the postseason so close makes it tough to imagine him seeing much, if any, action. K.C.'s got some injury problems of its own – Sammy Watkins is out once again, Spencer Ware is limping, and Tyreek Hill will probably try gutting out a couple of knocks – which could open the door for Kelvin Benjamin to see his first snaps in red, gold and white.

The Skinny:
•LAC injuries: RB Gordon (questionable, knee); RB Austin Ekeler (out, neck)
•KC injuries: WR Hill (questionable, heel); WR Watkins (out, foot); RB Ware (doubtful, hamstring)
•LAC DFS chalk: none
•KC DFS chalk: Hill (LAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
•LAC DFS tournament plays: Justin Jackson (KC 31st in YPC allowed), Tyrell Williams (KC 28th in DVOA vs. WR3), Antonio Gates (KC 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
•KC DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 KC, average score 28-19 KC, average margin of victory 10 points. KC has won nine straight, and won four straight by at least 10 points.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, 14 mph wind, 25-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jackson leads the Bolts backfield with 80 combined yards. Rivers throws for a season-low 200 yards but hits Gates and Keenan Allen for scores. Darrel Williams, not Damien, leads the Chiefs backfield with 50 combined yards, but Damien and Charcandrick West each chip in 40 scrimmage yards, with the latter finding the end zone. Mahomes throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Hill and Demarcus Robinson. Chiefs, 24-20

Last week's record: 10-6, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 128-78-2, 90-109-9 ATS, 89-116-3 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS