NFL Game Previews: Broncos-Raiders Matchup

Denver at Oakland (+3), 43.0 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Story: What more fitting matchup for the final game of Jason Witten's rookie season as a broadcaster than a titanic battle between 6-8 and 3-11 teams? The Broncos have lost two straight (and to the 49ers and Browns, for added insult) to squash whatever faint playoff hopes they might have been nursing, That slide coincided with the loss of Emmanuel Sanders, as without any kind of threat through the air, defenses have just stacked the box against Phillip Lindsay and dared Case Keenum to beat them. He hasn't. The Raiders did upset the Steelers a couple of weeks ago, but that appears to be the last of whatever fighting spirit they might have had left given their limp performance against the Bengals afterwards. What's worse, Derek Carr continues to play relatively error-free football – he hasn't thrown an INT since Week 5 – and has probably convinced John Gruden that he's capable of being his franchise QB. That opinion may change once Oakland locks up one of the top picks in the 2019 draft and he starts digging into the tape on Dwayne Haskins, Justin Herbert etc., but if Gruden does decide to hitch his wagon to Carr, things could be pretty bleak in whatever stadium they play in next year, no matter how much talent they add in April to surround him with.

The Skinny:
•DEN injuries: WR Courtland Sutton (questionable, quad); LB Brandon Marshall (questionable, knee); TE Matt LaCosse (questionable, foot)
•OAK injuries: none
•DEN DFS chalk: Phillip Lindsay (OAK 32nd in rushing yards allowed)
•OAK DFS chalk: none
•DEN DFS tournament plays: Broncos DST (OAK 29th in points scored, 30th in sacks allowed), Case Keenum (OAK 29th in QB rating against, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), DaeSean Hamilton (OAK 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), LaCosse / Brian Parker (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
•OAK DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 DEN, average score 26-16 DEN, average margin of victory 13 points. The last three meetings have been decided by seven points or less.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, 9-12 mph wind, 20-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lindsay rebounds a little, picking up 60 yards and a score. Keenum throws for 220 yards and a TD to Hamilton. Jalen Richard leads the Raiders backfield with 90 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Carr throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Jared Cook. Raiders, 20-17

Cincinnati (+8.5) at Cleveland, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: You have to wonder what Joe Mixon is thinking right about now. When the season started, he was part of a potent offense that had Andy Dalton under center, a proven stud in A.J. Green on the outside with an up-and-coming wideout in Tyler Boyd opposite him and the dangerous Tyler Eifert at tight end. The second-year running back is now the last guy standing from that group, and it's not a coincidence that the only two games the Bengals have won in their last nine are the only two where they scored more than 21 points. Of course, Mixon's also thriving as the team's only real offensive threat, racking up 240 rushing yards and three TDs the last two weeks. The Browns' extremely narrow remaining path to the playoffs could be blocked by the time they take the field Sunday, but the spunky bunch has acquitted itself well down the stretch, winning four of its last five – including a 35-20 thumping of the Bengals back in Cincy a month ago. Baker Mayfield managed only a 6.1 YPA last week in Denver, his worst performance in that category since Week 8, but another big game from Nick Chubb kept things rolling. The key all season for the Browns has been that Myles Garrett-led defense, though. In games where it's allowed 20 points or less, they're 6-0. In four games with Jeff Driskel at the helm, Cincinnati's averaging 20.25 points.

The Skinny:
•CIN injuries: WR Boyd (out, knee); LB Vontaze Burfict (questionable, concussion)
•CLE injuries: none
•CIN DFS chalk: none
•CLE DFS chalk: Chubb (CIN 29th in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•CIN DFS tournament plays: none
•CLE DFS tournament plays: Antonio Callaway (CIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), Duke Johnson (see above)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 CIN, average score 26-14 CIN, average margin of victory 20 points. The last time a game in this rivarly was decided by less than 10 points came back in Week 3 of 2012.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, 25-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon puts together 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Driskel throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Chubb fires off 120 combined yards and a TD, while Duke adds 70 combined yards and a receiving score. Mayfield throws for 220 yards and a second touchdown to Callaway. Browns, 27-10

Tampa Bay (+7) at Dallas, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: If you read these previews regularly, you're probably aware that I can sound like a skipping record on certain topics. Well, the Bucs' treatment of their backfield is my current bugaboo. Newsflash for Dirk Koetter – you're 5-9, and nowhere near playoff contention. Every tote you give to Peyton Barber and his career 3.9 YPC is a wasted chance to see what second-round pick Ronald Jones II is made of. I don't care if Barber has a "nose for the end zone" or "runs hard" or whatever cliches you lull yourself to sleep with at night. You used a top-40 selection on this kid, and you haven't given him more than 14 snaps in any of the last three games. You should be playing for the future, and you should also know that Barber ain't it. Whatever excuses you're using right now are exactly the same ones Hue Jackson was using when he was starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback over Baker Mayfield, and they'll lead you to exactly the same place (which I guess is Cincinnati?). Anyway, Tampa Bay should get DeSean Jackson back for this one, who has a bit of a rep as a Cowboys killer, but otherwise it'll be the same offense that's barely averaged 20 points a game over its last seven contests. The Bucs also will face a Dallas team looking to take out its frustrations on whoever's in front of it after a no-show in Indy last week. The Cowboys are still atop the NFC East and should be able to hold off competition that's currently being led by Nick Foles and Josh Johnson, but this is the NFC East we're talking about. The last thing they want is to have to go on the road against the Giants in Week 17 absolutely needing a win. Ezekiel Elliott has topped 100 scrimmage yards in seven straight games since the Cowboys' bye, and while the Bucs' defense is generally terrible against the pass, it isn't a whole lot better on the ground. Look for Dallas to get back to its bread and butter.

The Skinny:
•TB injuries: WR Jackson (questionable, thumb)
•DAL injuries: LB Sean Lee (questionable, hamstring)
•TB DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS chalk: Amari Cooper (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•TB DFS tournament plays: none
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Dak Prescott (TB 32nd in QB rating against, tied for 30th in passing TDs allowed), Michael Gallup (TB 25th in DVOA vs. WR2), Blake Jarwin (TB 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barber grinds out 50 yards and a TD. Jameis Winston throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Cameron Brate. Elliott erupts for 160 combined yards and two scores. Prescott throws for 280 yards and TDs to Cooper (who tops 100 yards) and Gallup while running for 50 yards and a score of his own. Cowboys, 38-17

Minnesota at Detroit (+6), 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: If the season had ended last week, the Vikings would have been the No. 6 seed in the NFC thanks to that tie, but with two games still remaining on the schedule – and a meeting with the Bears ahead in Week 17 – they really can't afford to give away this one. They'd look more like a lock if Kirk Cousins hadn't suddenly hit the skids. The QB hasn't thrown for more than 215 yards in any of the last three games, scraping together a 4:3 TD:INT, and while Dalvin Cook was able to make up for it last week, that might not be an option against a Lions front seven that's been steadily climbing the run-defense rankings ever since it added Damon Harrison. It was arguably the best trade acquisition of the year – through the first six games of the season, before Snacks got to Detroit, the Lions allowed 139.3 rushing yards a game and a 5.3 YPC. In the last six games with Harrison, it's 79.2 yards a game and a 3.4 YPC. Of course, the offense went south at the same time (or I guess east, since Golden Tate got dealt to Philly), leaving them out of playoff contention. The team's averaging a miserable 15.9 points over its last eight games, not scoring more than 22 points during that 2-6 stretch, so having a stout run defense has been fairly moot. Blame the Tate trade combined with Marvin Jones' injury, or the offensive line's woes, or Matthew Stafford's aching back, or all of the above if you want. The bottom line is that this team simply can't score now.

The Skinny:
•MIN injuries: LB Eric Kendricks (out, hamstring)
•DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, back); RB Kerryon Johnson (IR, knee); WR Kenny Golladay (questionable, chest); RB LeGarrette Blount (questionable, calf)
•MIN DFS chalk: Stefon Diggs (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•MIN DFS tournament plays: Cousins (DET 31st in QB rating against), Aldrick Robinson (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Kyle Rudolph (DET 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
•DET DFS tournament plays: Theo Riddick (MIN 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 DET, average score 18-18, average margin of victory eight points. Only two of the last 16 meetings have been decided by more than 10 points, but one of them was a 24-9 MIN victory in Week 9.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Cook gains 70 combined yards and a TD. Cousins rebounds a bit, throwing for 240 yards and two touchdowns, both to Diggs (who tops 100 yards). Riddick leads the Lions' backfield with 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Stafford throws for less than 200 yards. Vikings, 24-16

Buffalo (+13.5) at New England, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Somehow, the Bills are now 3-2 over their last five games, with last week's ugly 14-13 win over the Lions a typical example. Josh Allen can come up with big plays, but the rookie QB isn't exactly capable of regular sustained drives at this stage of his career – he's got a completion rate of exactly 50 percent the last four games. He's shown flickers of chemistry with a young Bills receiving corps, but the best news for Buffalo might be that LeSean McCoy seems to be healthy again. It's been a rough season for Shady, but he's tended to get his against the Pats, averaging more than 100 scrimmage yards a game through seven career meetings with New England, including 43.3 receiving yards a game – his best showing against any team he's played more than twice. There's an air of sad inevitability to Josh Gordon's latest departure from the NFL, but I have nothing but contempt for Roger Goodell and the league for slapping another pointless suspension on the receiver after he'd already announced he was leaving to seek further help and treatment. Why? Who is that supposed to benefit? Anyway, the Pats appear poised for their umpteenth consecutive AFC East title even though they're on a two-game losing streak, but they'll need some assistance if they want a first-round bye. The offense hasn't exactly been humming lately – Tom Brady's moving the chains, but he's thrown for one or zero TDs in five of the last seven games, including a goose egg in Week 8's 25-6 win over the Bills – but the defense has been generally solid. It's hard not to look at their losses this year (including to the 4-10 Jaguars, the 5-9 Lions, and that trippy last-play defeat at the hands of the Dolphins) and wonder if this is the last hurrah for a dynasty, but then again they're 5-2 against teams with winning records. Count them out at your own risk.

The Skinny:
•BUF injuries: none
•NE injuries: WR Gordon (out, personal)
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•NE DFS chalk: Patriots DST (BUF 31st in points scored, 31st in giveaways)
•BUF DFS tournament plays: McCoy (NE 31st in YPC allowed)
•NE DFS tournament plays: Chris Hogan / Cordarrelle Patterson (BUF 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 NE, average score 26-17 NE, average margin of victory 13 points. The last five games in this rivarly have all been decided by 16 points or more.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: McCoy picks up 110 combined yards. Allen throws for less than 200 yards and gets held mostly in check on the ground, but he does hit Zay Jones for a score. Sony Michel runs for 70 yards and a TD, while James White adds 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Brady throws for 290 yards and a second TD to Patterson. Patriots, 27-13

Green Bay at N.Y. Jets (+3), 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: So, the Mike McCarthy firing didn't exactly light a fire under the Packers, did it? They're now 2-6 over their last eight after getting bossed around by the Bears last week, a game in which they lost starting RB Aaron Jones to a toe injury and in which Aaron Rodgers failed to throw a TD pass in a game he completed for the first time since ... hmm, Week 15 in Chicago during the 2016 season. Huh. It will be very interesting to see what sort of coaching staff the front office hires in the offseason to try and squeeze the most out of the 35-year-old QB's remaining years. Might they even think about drafting his successor, given the injuries that have been accumulating for Rodgers? The Jets have been even worse, losing seven of their last eight to plant themselves firmly in the top five in the 2019 draft, but at least Sam Darnold continues to show progress, giving them someone to build around. He needs all the help he can get. Aside from Robby Anderson, who's adequate but nothing special as a deep-threat No. 2 wide receiver, and rookie tight end Chris Herndon, there really isn't anyone on offense for the Jets who seems like they might play a big role in the next competitive version of the roster.

The Skinny:
•GB injuries: RB Jones (IR, toe); WR Randall Cobb (doubtful, concussion)
•NYJ injuries: WR Quincy Enunwa (out, ankle)
•GB DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•GB DFS tournament plays: none
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: Elijah McGuire (GB 28th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jamaal Williams picks up 60 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 220 yards and a TD to Davante Adams. Elijah McGuire leads the Jets backfield with 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Darnold throws for 270 yards and a second score to Anderson. Jets, 20-17

Houston (+1.5) at Philadelphia, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: You know who could really use a first-round bye in the playoffs? The Houston Texans. Aside from Deshaun Watson and Jadeveon Clowney (yes, Texans fans, I just knocked on wood), pretty much every important player for the team is playing through some sort of injury. Fortunately for the Texans, they have a fairly soft finish to their schedule, with this game in Philly being the tougher one on paper. Lamar Miller's ankle injury will keep him sidelined, so it might finally be time for Houston to see what D'Onta Foreman can do. The second-year back hasn't seen a snap since being activated from the PUP list, but prior to tearing his Achilles last year he looked like a big-play weapon. The Eagles shocked the world against the Rams last week to keep their playoffs hopes alive, but it was mainly that patchwork secondary that deserves the credit. Nick Foles didn't embarrass himself, but he also didn't throw a TD pass, and his target tree seemed limited to Alshon Jeffery, Alshon Jeffery and Alshon Jeffery. That's great if you're a fantasy GM with Jeffery shares, but Foles might need to broaden his horizons a bit if Philly's going to somehow chase down the Cowboys in the NFC East and get a chance to defend its Super Bowl title.

The Skinny:
•HOU injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, ankle); RB Miller (out, ankle); WR Keke Coutee (out, hamstring)
•PHI injuries: QB Carson Wentz (out, back)
•HOU DFS chalk: none
•PHI DFS chalk: Zach Ertz (HOU 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•HOU DFS tournament plays: Foreman (PHI 29th in YPC allowed), Demaryius Thomas (PHI 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: Jeffery (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Foreman makes an impact with 90 yards and two TDs. Watson throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Hopkins and DT. Wendell Smallwood leads the Eagles backfield with 60 yards. Foles throws for 250 yards and scores to Ertz and Jeffery. Texans, 28-20

Atlanta at Carolina (+3), 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's been a roller coaster season for the Falcons. They dropped four of five to kick things off, then won three straight, then lost five straight before jumping back into the win column against the hapless Cards last week. They could easily finish the season with two more wins, however, putting them at 7-9 and maybe fooling the front office into thinking everything is OK. An offense that's supposed to be the team's strength really hasn't been the same since the team lost a Week 4 shootout to the Bengals, failing to top 20 points during that five-game slide. Julio Jones has been consistent, but that's about it, and even he's now dealing with a hip injury. That must all seem like a pleasant dream to the Panthers, though, owners of the league's longest active losing streak at six games. Christian McCaffrey has been a machine and gets a great matchup on paper, but things could be quite a bit different for him with Taylor Heinicke under center instead of Cam Newton. Heinicke's all of 3-for-5 for 56 yards in his NFL career, so to say the 25-year-old is an unknown would be an understatement. I dug up an old scouting report on him and, at least before he got the NFL, he was a fairly typical backup QB prospect with solid mechanics but a lack of size or arm strength who got a Colt McCoy comp, which is hardly a glowing endorsement. Still, gets a fairly soft first assignment against an Atlanta defense that has had issues all year, and throwing quick slants to the Panthers' zippy young receivers and letting them gain yards after the catch isn't the worst idea.

The Skinny:
•ATL injuries: WR Jones (questionable, hip); RB Ito Smith (IR, knee)
•CAR injuries: QB Newton (out, shoulder)
•ATL DFS chalk: none
•CAR DFS chalk: McCaffrey (ATL 28th in YPC allowed, 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•ATL DFS tournament plays: Calvin Ridley (CAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Austin Hooper (CAR 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
•CAR DFS tournament plays: Heinicke (ATL 28th in QB rating against), D.J. Moore (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Curtis Samuel (ATL 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 ATL, average score 24-20 CAR, average margin of victory 14 points. ATL has won five of the last six meetings.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, 8-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Tevin Coleman leads the Falcons backfield with 60 combined yards. Matt Ryan throws for 340 yards and four TDs, hitting Hooper twice and Ridley and Julio once each, with the latter topping 100 yards. McCaffrey gets held to 80 combined yards but does score. Heinicke's debut doesn't go smoothly, as he throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Samuel but gets picked off twice. Falcons, 31-17

NY Giants (+9) at Indianapolis, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Last week's brutal flop at home against the Titans would, in a just universe, have spelled the end of Eli Manning's tenure as the Giants' starting QB. I mean, the whole team played badly – not even Saquon Barkley could escape the malaise – but Manning's two worst performances of the season by YPA have come in the last three games, and with the team officially out of playoff contention the only reason to keep starting a 37-year-old quarterback who's clearly on his last legs is because you've written off his backups as not having a role in the future of the franchise. (The Giants did work out perennial CFL Most Outstanding Player candidate Bo Levi Mitchell this week, which isn't exactly a vote of confidence in Kyle Lauletta and Alex Tanney, so that may well be the answer. Yes, the CFL has a MOP instead of an MVP. It's Canada. Waddayagunnado.) The Colts just shut out one NFC East team, and they're not above doing it again if that's what it takes to lock up a wild-card spot. They haven't gotten nearly enough attention, but the Quenton Nelson-led offensive line has been arguably the best all-around blocking unit in the league, giving Andrew Luck consistently clean pockets and providing Marlon Mack with consistently gaping holes. That increasingly not-so-secret weapon could make them a tough out if they make the postseason, as this is a dome team that can play decidedly non-dome ball when they need to.

The Skinny:
•NYG injuries: WR Odell Beckham (out, quad); LB Alec Ogletree (out, concussion)
•IND injuries: WR T.Y. Hilton (questionable, ankle)
•NYG DFS chalk: none
•IND DFS chalk: Hilton (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NYG DFS tournament plays: none
•IND DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Barkley racks up 120 combined yards and a score. Manning throws for under 200 yards. Mack runs for 100 yards and a TD. Luck throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Hilton (who tops 100 yards) twice and Eric Ebron once. Colts, 37-13

Jacksonville (+4) at Miami, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: This neither of these teams played Tampa this year, a Jags-Fish game counts as the unofficial Battle of Florida for 2018. There's at least something on the line for Miami, who are still in the wild-card hunt at 7-7, but at 4-10, Jacksonville packed it in a long time ago. It's almost unfathomable that this team started the season 3-1, including a win over the Patriots, but three straight losses to the Chiefs, Cowboys and Texans (which, in retrospect, doesn't look so bad) just seemed to kneecap the team's confidence, and discipline and focus issues (not to mention terrible quarterback play) dragged them to the bottom of the standings. It's kind of weird that Doug Marrone's job doesn't seem to be in any danger. The Dolphins, perhaps predictably, suffered a letdown last week to follow up their dramatic upset of the Pats, but there was still a silver lining in the loss as Kalen Ballage burst onto the scene in place of an injured Frank Gore. His college career always marked him as an athletic and talented but injury-prone back who maybe lacked the motor and sheer will to thrive in the NFL, but at least for one week he looked like he belonged. A Ballage-Kenyan Drake backfield has some definite possibilities, in a Mark Ingram-Alvin Kamara sort of way, but the rookie has a lot to prove before he'll be considered reliable, and it kind of feels like we've seen this movie before in Miami with Drake, and Jay Ajayi before him.

The Skinny:
•JAC injuries: K Josh Lambo (out, groin)
•MIA injuries: RB Gore (IR, foot); LB Kiko Alonso (questionable, knee); CB Xavien Howard (questionable, knee)
•JAC DFS chalk: none
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•JAC DFS tournament plays: Leonard Fournette (MIA 31st in rushing yards allowed)
•MIA DFS tournament plays: Dolphins DST (tied for third in takeaways, JAC 30th in points scored, tied for 27th in giveaways)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette gains 50 yards, but T.J. Yeldon leads the Jags backfield with 70 combined yards. Cody Kessler throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Drake scampers for 90 combined yards while Ballage adds 60 yards and a TD. Ryan Tannehill throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. Dolphins, 24-9

LA Rams at Arizona (+14), 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: So, my current theory is that the Rams just hate fantasy football GMs. After Jared Goff and the passing game fizzled in what should have been a great matchup against the injury-ravaged Eagles secondary, the front office has now decided Todd Gurley will be a game-time decision in a game with a late kickoff during championship week. C'mon, guys, work with us here. If Gurley does get shut down due to his knee injury – which is, arguably, the prudent course with a playoff spot already locked up, although they still have a first-round bye they can shoot for despite their two-game losing streak – newly signed C.J. Anderson and rookie John Kelly would handle the load in the backfield. The quality of the opposition should be a factor here as well. Maybe Gurley would suit up against a tougher foe, but if the Rams can't handle the Cards without him, finding time to rest their stud RB might be the least of their worries. Arizona's neck and neck with Oakland for the top pick in the 2019 draft, and they've scored by far the fewest points in the league, sitting nearly two points a game behind 31st-place Buffalo. David Johnson hit for 100 scrimmage yards last week for the first time since Week 11 and scored for the first time since Week 10, but otherwise Josh Rosen doesn't have much to work with, and there haven't really been clear signs yet he'd know what to do with better weapons if he had them.

The Skinny:
•LAR injuries: RB Gurley (questionable, knee)
•ARI injuries: none
•LAR DFS chalk: Rams DST (third in takeaways, ARI 32nd in points scored, tied for 27th in giveaways)
•ARI DFS chalk: Johnson (LAR 30th in YPC allowed)
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Kelly / Anderson (ARI 30th in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
•ARI DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 LAR, average score 20-19 ARI, average margin of victory 18 points. LAR have won three straight and four of five, including 34-0 and 33-0 blowouts.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Kelly leads the Rams backfield with 70 combined yards and a TD, while Anderson runs for 50 yards and a score. Goff throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Robert Woods. DJ picks up 90 combined yards and a score, while Rosen throws for 200 yards and a TD to Larry Fitzgerald. Rams, 27-17

Chicago at San Francisco (+4), 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: With their first NFC North crown since 2010 already in hand, the Bears could take their foot off the gas for the last two weeks, or they could try to catch the suddenly reeling Rams and add a first-round bye to their haul. My guess is Matt Nagy goes for the latter, especially since a Week 17 win could ruin the Vikings' playoff chances too. The defense remains the stars of the show in Chicago. Aside from the nap they inexplicably took against the Giants a couple of weeks ago, Khalil Mack and the boys haven't allowed more than 22 points in a game since Week 7. In fact, they're 0-4 this year when they give up 24 points or more, and 10-0 when they allow less than 24, which kind of tells you where the Mitchell Trubisky-led offense is right now. Maybe he could air it out if he had to – he has thrown for more than 300 yards four times this season – but for the most part the team is content to chew clock with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, and last week's 235 yards was actually Trubisky's highest output of the year in a game where he didn't hit 300. The Niners' recent friskiness has taken them out the race for next year's No. 1 pick for the moment, but this still doesn't seem like an offense built to handle what's about to come their way. Nick Mullens has been productive at the helm of Kyle Shanahan's offense, averaging nearly 300 yards a game in six starts, but his 10:6 TD:INT shows he can be mistake-prone. They also have two good, young and healthy options in the backfield in Matt Breida and Jeff Wilson, but a Bears defense that ranks fifth in YPC allowed and has given up a league-low five rushing TDs on the season won't make anything easy for them.

The Skinny:
•CHI injuries: S Eddie Jackson (doubtful, ankle)
•SF injuries: none
•CHI DFS chalk: Bears DST (third in points allowed, tied for fourth in sacks, first in takeaways, SF tied for 29th in giveaways)
•SF DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: Trubisky (SF 30th in QB rating against, tied for 30th in passing TDs allowed), Taylor Gabriel (SF 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Anthony Miller (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•SF DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Howard pounds out 90 yards and a TD, while Cohen adds 80 combined yards. Trubisky throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Gabriel. Breida leads the Niners backfield with 50 yards and a receiving score. Mullens throws for 240 yards but gets picked off twice, one of which Roquan Smith returns to the house. Bears, 27-7

Pittsburgh (+6) at New Orleans, 53.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Pittsburgh held serve at home against New England, keeping the team a precious half-game up on Baltimore in the AFC North. They'll also have a much clearer idea of what they need to do over the final two weeks to ensure that division title before they kick off. The Ravens are on the road Saturday against the Chargers, and a Bolts win gives the Steelers the luxury of being able to afford a loss here, knowing they get to push around the Bengals in Week 17. If Baltimore wins, though ... well, suddenly a loss to the Saints could put the Steelers on the outside of the playoff picture entirely, depending on how the Colts and Titans did. James Conner remains out against a vulnerable run defense, but Jaylen Samuels has looked more than capable of carrying the load in the meantime, and the Pittsburgh backfield looks like it will be just fine in the post-Le'Veon Bell era. New Orleans also isn't going to be slacking. They're one game up on the Rams and hold the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage through the playoffs, an asset that could prove invaluable for Drew Brees given how the offense has looked during their just-concluded road trip. They did win two of the three, but 16.7 points a game is less than half their average in the Superdome this year. A win here, and the pressure's off in Week 17 against the Panthers.

The Skinny:
•PIT injuries: RB Conner (out, ankle); WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (questionable, groin)
•NO injuries: none
•PIT DFS chalk: Smith-Schuster (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•NO DFS chalk: none
•PIT DFS tournament plays: Samuels (NO 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•NO DFS tournament plays: Ben Watson (PIT 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Samuels gains 100 combined yards, but Stevan Ridley vultures another short TD. Ben Roethlisberger throws for 330 yards and two touchdowns, finding JSS (who tops 100 yards) and Antonio Brown. Alvin Kamara zips for 90 combined yards and a score, while Mark Ingram adds 60 combined yards. Brees throws for 310 yards and three TDs, hitting Watson, Tre'Quan Smith and Keith Kirkwood. Saints, 31-24

Kansas City at Seattle (+2.5), 54.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: Much like the Steelers, the Chiefs will have their eyes glued to Saturday's Chargers-Ravens game. A Baltimore win all but locks up the AFC West for Kansas City, considering their Week 17 draw is what should be a gimme against Oakland. If the Bolts prevail, though, a loss in Seattle would suddenly bump the Chiefs down to a wild-card spot, something that would have seemed ridiculous just a few weeks ago. There's no way to really tell from the outside, but the team could still be in a bit of turmoil in the aftermath of Kareem Hunt's release. Patrick Mahomes' numbers in the last three games have been merely excellent instead of otherworldly, for instance. If the Chiefs are looking for someone to step up in the locker room and steer the ship back on course, though, Eric Berry – who finally made his season debut last week – could be just the guy. Seattle's still occupying the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but last week's shocking loss to the Niners removes most of their cushion. The silver lining from that upset was Doug Baldwin's return to prominence. His two TDs doubled his total on the year, and in fact all four of those trips to the end zone have come in the last month. Russell Wilson's favorite receiver looks 100 percent healthy again, and that changes the complexion of an offense that for the most part has had to lean awfully heavily on its running game in 2018 – although given the possible conditions for this one, neither QB may be able to do much through the air with sopping wet footballs.

The Skinny:
•KC injuries: RB Spencer Ware (doubtful, hamstring); WR Sammy Watkins (out, foot)
•SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (questionable, knee)
•KC DFS chalk: Tyreek Hill (SEA 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•SEA DFS chalk: Chris Carson (KC 32nd in YPC allowed)
•KC DFS tournament plays: Damien Williams (SEA 28th in YPC allowed)
•SEA DFS tournament plays: David Moore (KC 28th in DVOA vs. WR3), Nick Vannett
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 60-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams totes up 100 combined yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and TDs to Chris Conley and Hill. Carson piles up 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 250 yards and two TDs of his own, finding Baldwin and Vannett, but a missed extra point by Sebastian Janikowski early in the game proves to be a heart-breaker. Chiefs, 24-23

Washington (+10) at Tennessee, 37.0 o/u – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Josh Johnson story has gone from bolstering Colin Kaepernick's collusion case to at least undermining the argument that Kaep's been out of football too long to contribute. While the 32-year-old's passing numbers remained poor in last week's win over the Jags, his mobility helped keep the offense moving just enough to keep it in the NFC wild-card chase. Jamison Crowder seems to be Johnson's only healthy receiving option, though Chris Thompson could see more action now that he's 100 percent healthy, but this isn't a team built to air it out and blow away the opposition anyway. The Titans have won three consecutive and are also fighting for the No. 6 seed in the AFC, though losses earlier in the year to the Ravens and Colts give them a tough hill to climb. Derrick Henry continues to channel Earl Campbell and has run for 408 yards and six TDs the last two games with an absurd 8.2 YPC. Washington's run defense on the season has been a notch worse than either the Jags or Giants, the two teams Henry pounded into submission, but you have to think they'll stack the box and selling out to stop him, leaving the task of generating yards and points to Marcus Mariota. Mariota's taken a backseat to Henry – he threw for only 88 yards last week, and hasn't tossed a TD since Week 13 – but he's at least healthy, and could be up for it.

The Skinny:
•WAS injuries: RB Adrian Peterson (questionable, shoulder); TE Jordan Reed (out, foot); TE Vernon Davis (questionable, concussion); WR Josh Doctson (questionable, back); WR Maurice Harris (questionable, concussion)
•TEN injuries: LB Wesley Woodyard (questionable, back)
•WAS DFS chalk: none
•TEN DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS tournament plays: none
•TEN DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Peterson plays but runs for only 40 yards, while Thompson gains 60 combined yards. Johnson throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Crowder while adding 40 yards on the ground. Henry plows ahead for 70 yards and a score. Mariota throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Corey Davis. Titans, 17-10

Baltimore (+4) at L.A. Chargers, 43.5 o/u – Saturday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: The Ravens remain an agonizing half-game behind the Steelers, and with Pittsburgh facing Cincinnati in Week 17, Baltimore pretty much needs to win out to make the playoffs, and even then nothing's guaranteed. Lamar Jackson's won four of his five starts, producing nearly as much offense on the ground (427 yards, two TDs) as through the air (731 yards, 4:3 TD:INT), but he could face a tough challenge as the Chargers have yet to allow a rushing TD on the season to a quarterback – though to be fair, they haven't had to deal with a QB like Jackson (the closest they've come was Russell Wilson, who ran for 41 yards on five totes against them in Week 9). Combined with Gus Edwards, who's hit for 100-plus yards three times with Jackson under center, and the Ravens' offense is RPOwning the opposition. The Bolts have already locked up a playoff spot but now have their sights set firmly on the AFC West crown after they toppled the Chiefs last week. Their four-game winning streak is actually the longest active streak in the league, and they've done that with Melvin Gordon missing the last three. He seems set to return (just in time to face into a top-five run defense) but now Keenan Allen is banged up, though none of that seems to matter to Philip Rivers. The veteran just keeps ticking like clockwork, and he's now thrown multiple passes of 20 yards or longer in every game this season while throwing multiple TDs in all but one. Mike Williams stepped up against Kansas City, but Rivers has other options at his disposal as well if Allen remains out.

The Skinny:
•BAL injuries: none
•LAC injuries: WR Allen (questionable, hip); RB Austin Ekeler (doubtful, neck)
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS tournament plays: John Brown (fifth in NFL in average Air Yards per target, LAC 27th in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)
•LAC DFS tournament plays: Antonio Gates (BAL 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Edwards racks up 80 yards, while Kenneth Dixon adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Jackson throws for less than 200 yards but runs for 40 and a TD. Gordon manages 90 combined yards in his return. Rivers throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Gates and Tyrell Williams. Chargers, 23-17

Last week's record: 10-6, 7-9 ATS, 6-9-1 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 138-84-2, 97-118-9 ATS, 95-125-4 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS