This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 0-3-1 last week, losing my best bet (Ravens), so my playoff handicapping got off to a less-than-ideal start.
This week, I feel better about the Saturday games than I do the Sunday ones, and I'm fairly sure my best bet will be the Chiefs who seem underpriced to me at less than seven.
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Colts +5.5 at Chiefs
The Colts are on a nice roll, and you have to be encouraged by their coaching, QB play and offensive line. But their resume strikes me as a little thin, their best wins being at home against the Cowboys after the Cowboys had more or less locked up the NFC East by beating the Eagles in overtime and last week in Houston. Going into Arrowhead against a well-rested and prepared offensive juggarnaut is a degree of difficulty they haven't yet faced. The Chiefs defense isn't good, but Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce might be the three most dangerous players at their respective posiitons. I don't think the Colts keep up in that venue and under these conditions. Lay the wood.
Chiefs 34 - 23
Cowboys +7 at Rams
Maybe a rested Rams squad with a presumably healthy Todd Gurley and Aqib Talib will revert to their early-season form and crush the Cowboys, but Los Angeles has not been that team the last 10 weeks. The Cowboys are good in all phases now that Amari Cooper has opened