Survivor: Surviving Week 1

Surviving Week 1

I probably shouldn't admit this, but in the interest of full transparency my recommendations in this space wouldn't have gotten you very far the last two seasons. In 2017, I picked the Patriots over the Chiefs in the opening Thursday night game and was literally out in Game 1 of 256. Last year, I picked the Saints, and while they played on Sunday, the result was the same. So, you might understandably wonder, why am I bothering to write the column at all?

For starters, realize that from a strict EV/financial perspective, it makes no difference whether you lose in Week 1 or Week 9. A loss is a loss, and your job isn't merely to survive, but to survive while everyone else perishes. That means the optimal way to play often entails taking greater risks of losing early in order to deviate from the path of your fellow competitors (more on that below.) So don't worry about how deep into the year you make it. Worry about lining yourself up for the greatest amount of projected equity each week (again, more on this below) and let the chips fall.

That said, the Week 1 losses the last two seasons were not due to making high-risk equity-maximizing picks. The Saints last year were the biggest favorite on the board, and the Pats were one of them in 2017 in what was a nasty Week 1 with no huge moneylines. That's not an excuse, but sometimes even the chalk loses, and that fact is something we aim to take advantage of when the opportunity presents itself later in the year.  For a full rundown of the underlying principles of Survivor play (and also the rules) you can click here and here.

Before you go further, please click those links. I'll be drawing on concepts like "pot odds" and "pool equity" throughout the season, and they'll make more sense if you grasp the underlying framework.

Okay, without further ado, let's take a look at the Week 1 slate:

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines

This is a fairly simple set-up with two top favorites, both less than 30-percent owned. If you go strictly by the Vegas numbers and the Officefootballpools distribution, the Eagles are narrowly the best choice. But let's do a little math to assure ourselves of that fact. 

The only viable alternative (based on the numbers above) to the Eagles are the Saints, who are lower owned, and have the highest win percentage other than the Eagles and Seahawks (higher owned.) 

When comparing the Eagles to the Saints, remember if both win or both lose, it makes no difference which one you had. So the only relevant comparison is between two scenarios: Eagles win/Saints lose or Saints win/Eagles lose. 

The Eagles are 80.4 percent to win, and the Saints are 74.4 percent to win or 25.6 percent to lose. Multiply those, and there's a 20.6 percent chance of that scenario coming to pass. The Saints on the other hand are 74.4 to win, and the Eagles 19.6 to lose, giving that scenario a 14.6 percent chance of happening. The ratio of 20.6 to 14.6 is 1.41. Let's call this the risk ratio. 

But in the first scenario (Eagles win/Saints lose), if you took the Eagles, only five people per hundred would be expected to lose with the Saints plus about 17 more on other teams. So 22 percent of your pool would be gone. If we use a simple 100-person pool with a $10 entry fee, that means 78 people would be left to fight for the $1000 in the pool heading into Week 2. Divide $1000/78, and you can see your expected equity from taking the Eagles in an Eagles win/Saints lose scenario is $1000/78 = $12.82. You went from your $10 entry fee before the year to $12.82. 

In the second, less likely scenario, where the Saints won and the Eagles lost,  23 people would go down with the Eagles, plus the same 17 on other teams. That would leave only 60 percent of your pool standing. Divide $1000/60, and you get $16.67. Your initial $10 is worth a lot more in Week 2 in Scenario 2. So the reward ratio is $16.67/$12.82 = 1.30. 

There's always a better expected payoff from taking the lesser owned team, but as you can see the risk ratio here (1.41) is bigger than the reward one (1.30), meaning the extra reward does not justify the added risk in this case. There will be times later in the year when it does, but Week 1, unless you disagree with the Vegas odds or polling numbers, looks like a chalky one to me. 

My Picks

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Case Keenum and a group of untested receivers have a tall order playing on the road against a tough front seven, and the Eagles offense with a healthy Carson Wentz should have its way with an average Redskins defense. I give the Eagles an 82 percent chance to win this game. 

2. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are always tough at home, and it'll be even harder on Andy Dalton and his substandard offensive line now that Jadeveon Clowney is in the fold. The Seahawks offense is run-heavy, but Russell Wilson is still wizard under center. I give the Seahawks an 81 percent chance to win this game. 

3. Baltimore Ravens

I never like taking a road team, and going to Miami in September can be brutal with the heat and humidity. But the Dolphins are possibly the worst team in the league, and the Ravens should overwhelm them on both sides of the ball. I give the Ravens a 75 percent chance to win this game. 

4. New Orleans Saints

The Saints knocked a lot of people out in Week 1 last year, and this season they face a better opponent in the Texans. But the Saints are better on defense and play especially well at home. I give the Saints a 73 percent chance to win this game. 

5. New England Patriots

The Patriots have a tough match-up against the Steelers, but they're at home where they rarely lose, and you know the game-plan will be good. I give the Patriots a 71-percent chance to win this game. 

6. Cleveland Browns

The Titans are a nasty, physical team on both sides of the ball, so this isn't an ideal match-up for the Browns, but the disparity in the passing game is wide, especially now that Odell Beckham is in the fold. I give the Browns a 70 percent chance to win this game. 

Notable Omissions:

Dallas Cowboys - I still view Jason Garrett as a bottom-50th percentile coach, Ezekiel Elliott might not be full go, Amari Cooper is playing with a foot injury, and the Giants are better offensively than people think. 

Los Angeles Chargers - Andrew Luck's retirement hurts the Colts, but they still have a great offensive system, playmakers on offense, a good offensive line and a solid defense. Meanwhile the Chargers are missing all-world safety Derwin James, tackle Russell Okung and likely Melvin Gordon too.