NFL Game Previews: Week 1 Matchups

Houston (+7) at New Orleans, 52.5 o/u – Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

When the bill comes due on the awful trades the Texans keep making, this franchise is going to find itself in dire straits, but in the short term getting rotational pieces on defense for a talented pass rusher you didn't want to pay, adding a real left tackle to an offensive line that was threatening to cut short Deshaun Watson's career, and picking up a solid wide receiver to supplement a group that can't stay healthy are all moves that can be excused with a Super Bowl win, or maybe even just an appearance. J.J. Watt isn't getting any younger, and DeAndre Hopkins has a lot of miles on him, so maybe Bill O'Brien just figured it was now or never. The Saints can probably sympathize, what with their 40-year-old Hall of Fame quarterback potentially getting robbed of his last shot at a title on a non-call in the NFC Championship game last year and all. Drew Brees keeps throwing the ball less and less, even as he gets more and more efficient doing it, and that trend probably won't change with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara as his top targets.

The Skinny

• HOU injuries: RB Lamar Miller (IR, knee), WR Keke Coutee (questionable, ankle)
• NO injuries: DT Sheldon Rankins (questionable, Achilles)
• HOU DFS chalk: QB Watson (NO 29th in passing yards allowed in 2018), WR Hopkins (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
• NO DFS chalk: QB Drew Brees (HOU 28th in passing yards allowed in 2018), WR Thomas (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
• HOU DFS tournament plays: RB Duke Johnson (NO 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB in 2018), WR Will Fuller (NO 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 32nd vs. deep throws in 2018)
• NO DFS tournament plays: TE Jared Cook (HOU 23rd in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• Key stat: Watson was sacked a league-high 62 times in 2018; NO ranked fifth in sack percentage, and tied for fifth in sacks
• Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop

Johnson picks up 100 combined yards, but Carlos Hyde punches in a short TD. Watson throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Hopkins and Fuller, but still gets sacked three times. Kamara answers with 120 combined yards and a score, while Latavius Murray also finds the end zone. Brees throws for 250 yards and TDs to Thomas and Cook. Saints, 31-27

Denver (+1.5) at Oakland, 43.0 o/u – Monday, 10:20 p.m. EDT

As veteran stopgap QBs go, Joe Flacco is an upgrade on Keenum, so the Broncos are at least making some progress. His best season statistically, 2010, came when he didn't have to air it out too much, so taking on a caretaker role while the pass rush and running game are the focal points should suit the former Raven just fine. The Raiders, on the other hand, don't so much need a caretaker as a babysitter. Antonio Brown's antics certainly make the entire Steelers' organization look better in retrospect, but they're also highlighting that a career draft "guru" with no front-office experience might be in over his head as GM. This is the team's final year in Oakland before the move to Las Vegas, and it might also be Derek Carr's final year in black and silver if he doesn't prove himself to Jon Gruden. There are no more excuses left for the sixth-year QB if he doesn't produce this season — though missing both his starting guards gives Carr a pretty good one if Week 1 is a bust.

The Skinny

• DEN injuries: LB Todd Davis (questionable, calf)
• OAK injuries: LG Richie Incognito (out, suspension), RG Gabe Jackson (out, knee)
• DEN DFS chalk: none
• OAK DFS chalk: none
• DEN DFS tournament plays: QB Flacco (OAK 32nd in passing TDs allowed in 2018), RB Phillip Lindsay (OAK 30th in rushing yards allowed in 2018), WR Emmanuel Sanders (OAK 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), TE Noah Fant (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• OAK DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: DEN ranked 28th in third-down offense in 2018 (33.3 percent); OAK ranked 30th in third-down defense (46.3 percent)
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DEN, average score 22-17 DEN, average margin of victory 12 points. The home team has won the last six meetings
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Lindsay puts together 70 combined yards. Flacco throws for 230 yards and TDs to Sanders and Fant. Josh Jacobs has a disappointing debut, managing only 40 yards, while Jalen Richard leads the backfield with 80 combined yards. Carr throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Williams, while Tahir Whitehead returns a Tim Patrick fumble to the house. Raiders, 20-17

L.A. Rams at Carolina (+2.5), 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Rams' offensive no-show in the Super Bowl still hangs over the team, but they didn't stand pat in the offseason, adding electric rookie Darrell Henderson to the backfield, and a healthy Cooper Kupp will give Jared Goff a full complement of weapons again. Goff's numbers took a sharp decline in 2018 after Kupp got hurt (313.4 passing yards per game, 68.4 percent completion rate, 22:6 TD:INT in 10 games with Kupp; 259.0 average passing yards, 59.8 percent completion rate and 10:6 TD:INT in six games without him), but correlation isn't causation. If the downturn was a result of defenses finally getting a bead on Sean McVay's scheme — and the Super Bowl certainly suggested that might be the case — Kupp's return won't cure what's ailing this offense. As for the Panthers, they're coming off a disappointing 7-9 campaign, but they've been alternating double-digit wins with sub-.500 seasons since 2012, which bodes well for 2019 if you think the pattern will hold. Cam Newton will need to stay healthy for that to happen, though. He's not on this week's injury report, which is nice, but a preseason foot sprain prevented him from proving his shoulder was fully recovered from offseason surgery, so there are plenty of questions around him. The offense will lean heavily again on Christian McCaffrey no matter how good Cam looks, but his arm will need to be 100 percent healthy if either D.J. Moore or Curtis Samuel (or both!) are going to have their anticipated breakouts.

The Skinny

• LAR injuries: none
• CAR injuries: none
• LAR DFS chalk: WR Robert Woods (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018)
• CAR DFS chalk: RB McCaffrey (LAR 32nd in YPC against in 2018)
• LAR DFS tournament plays: QB Goff (CAR tied for 27th in passing TDs allowed in 2018), TE Gerald Everett (CAR 24th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• CAR DFS tournament plays: WR Moore (LAR 28th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
• Key stat: CAR ranked 27th in red-zone defense in 2018, allowing TDs on 70.2 percent (33 of 47) of RZ possessions
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Todd Gurley looks healthy in gaining 90 scrimmage yards. Goff throws for 240 yards and TDs to Woods and Kupp. McCaffrey responds with 100 scrimmage yards. Newton runs for 40 yards and throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Moore. Rams, 20-16

Washington (+10) at Philadelphia, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Jay Gruden's decision to hand the starting job to the mediocre Case Keenum instead of first-round pick Dwayne Haskins may have some impatient fans disgruntled, but it makes sense if you give Gruden credit for any kind of long-term planning and don't just assume he thinks Keenum is a Week 1 lock based on last year's upset win over Seattle. Washington faces a bit of a gauntlet to open the season (at PHI, vs. DAL, vs. CHI) and tossing the kid straight into the fire could have been bad news for his development, especially with holdout Trent Williams not around to protect his flank. Instead, the veteran can go 0-3, "forcing" Gruden to turn to Haskins for Week 4's winnable matchup on the road against the Giants and setting up a nice savior narrative for the rookie. Of course in the meantime, there are those three games. Carson Wentz has a newly thickened wallet and plenty of incentive to prove he's both worth the contract and not made of porcelain. DeSean Jackson's repatriation, and the additions of Jordan Howard and second-round pick Miles Sanders to the backfield committee, should keep the points flowing, but it will probably take a rebound by the defense to get the Eagles back into serious Super Bowl contention. The team finished 13th in points allowed and 23rd in yards allowed last season, but the additions of Malik Jackson, Zach Brown and Vinny Curry (back from a one-year exile in Tampa) might help return the unit to championship form — Philly finished fourth in both categories in 2017.

The Skinny

• WAS injuries: TE Jordan Reed (questionable, concussion), LT Williams (out, contract dispute)
• PHI injuries: WR Alshon Jeffery (questionable, biceps)
• WAS DFS chalk: none
• PHI DFS chalk: none
• WAS DFS tournament plays: QB Keenum (PHI 30th in passing yards allowed in 2018)
• PHI DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: WAS's various quarterbacks compiled a 78.1 QB rating last year. Keenum's QBR in 16 games for DEN was 81.2
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 26-23 PHI, average margin of victory 10 points. PHI has won the last four meetings by an average score of 29-14, including a 24-0 shutout in Week 17 last year
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Derrius Guice leads the Washington backfield with 60 rushing yards, while Chris Thompson adds 60 scrimmage yards. Keenum throws for under 200 yards and fails to find the end zone while getting picked off twice. Howard bangs out 50 yards and a short TD and Sanders debuts with 40 yards, but it's ageless Darren Sproles who actually leads the Philly backfield with 70 combined yards. Wentz throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Jeffery and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Eagles, 27-6

Buffalo (+2.5) at N.Y. Jets, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The unceremonious dumping of LeSean McCoy leaves the Buffalo backfield in the hands of third-round rookie Devin Singletary and veteran retreads Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon, which means it might be a good idea to see what kind of odds you can get on Josh Allen leading the team in rushing. The front office did make a lot of offseason moves to bolster a terrible offensive line, but whether the additions are enough to get the unit above merely meh remains to be seen. John Brown and Cole Beasley were also added to holdovers Zay Jones and Robert Foster, but it's still a receiving group that makes the "Allen as rushing yards leader" play look that much stronger. The Jets also made a big shakeup to their backfield, of course, and Le'Veon Bell's return to the NFL after his season-long holdout makes the range of outcomes for him extremely volatile. Will he return refreshed and put together a career year? Will he have lost a step? Will the New York offense be as good a fit for his skill set as the Steelers' scheme was? At the very least, Bell should provide a nice safety net as a dump-off option for Sam Darnold, but if the second-year QB takes the big jump many are expecting from him, he may not need it.

The Skinny

• BUF injuries: none
• NYJ injuries: WR Robby Anderson (questionable, calf), TE Chris Herndon (out, suspension), CB Trumaine Johnson (questionable, hamstring)
• BUF DFS chalk: none
• NYJ DFS chalk: none
• BUF DFS tournament plays: QB Allen (NYJ 29th in rushing yards allowed to QBs in 2018)
• NYJ DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: NYJ ranked third in red-zone defense in 2018, allowing TDs on 44.4 percent (20 of 45) of RZ possessions
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 BUF, average score 27-21 BUF, average margin of victory 15 points
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Gore grinds out 50 yards to lead the Buffalo RBs, but Allen runs for 60 yards and a score while also throwing for 210 yards and a TD to Brown. Bell makes a splashy Jets debut with 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Darnold throws for 240 yards and a TD to Quincy Enunwa. Jets, 20-17

Atlanta (+3.5) at Minnesota, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

After the worst season of Dan Quinn's four-year tenure, he's attempted to fix the offense by bringing back Dirk "I loves me some Peyton Barber" Koetter, who was the team's OC in 2012-14 ... and had the Falcons finishing 20th and 13th in scoring in his final two years. His attacks when he was head coach in Tampa Bay were no better. Deposed coordinator Steve Sarkisian at least had Atlanta at 14th and 10th in scoring during his two seasons running the show. Hmm. Quinn may be relying on the defense to get its act together instead, something that seems more plausible if Deion Jones and Keanu Neal — who played a combined seven games in 2018 — stay healthy. The Vikings also might be having a bit of an identity crisis on offense. They gave a huge contract to Kirk Cousins and have two excellent receivers in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, with an apparently injury-prone starting RB in Dalvin Cook and no Latavius Murray around to back him up, so of course Mike Zimmer wants a ground-and-pound offense to complement his top-notch defense. Sigh. It's 2019, people. Throw the dang ball.

The Skinny

• ATL injuries: none
• MIN injuries: WR Diggs (questionable, hamstring)
• ATL DFS chalk: none
• MIN DFS chalk: WR Thielen (ATL 27th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
• ATL DFS tournament plays: TE Austin Hooper (MIN 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• MIN DFS tournament plays: QB Cousins (ATL 32nd in fantasy points allowed to QB, 29th in passing TDs allowed in 2018), WR Chad Beebe (ATL 27th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2018)
• Key stat: MIN led the league in third-down defense in 2018, allowing conversions only 30.5 percent of the time
• Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Devonta Freeman gains 80 combined yards, while Ito Smith catches a TD pass. Matt Ryan throws for 260 yards and a second score to Hooper. Cook picks up 110 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Cousins throws for 280 yards and a second TD to Thielen, who tops 100 yards. Vikings, 27-20

Baltimore at Miami (+6.5), 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Last year in Week 1, the Ravens utterly annihilated an AFC East team in disarray, marching out of Buffalo with a 47-3 win. This year, they face another AFC East team in disarray, as the Dolphins have been getting rid of players left and right in a clear attempt to set themselves up for the top pick in the 2020 draft. There are a couple key differences between this matchup and that 2018 clash, though. One, Nathan Peterman isn't under center for the Fish. Instead, they have the NFL's version of Two-Face at QB, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is just as capable of producing a miraculously huge game as he is a Peterman-like multi-pick performance. Two, the Ravens themselves have switched from elite quarterback Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson. Jackson is an extraordinary rushing threat — he ran for at least 67 yards in six of his seven starts to close out the regular season last year with four TDs — and he has the right coordinator in charge to take advantage of his mobility, as Greg Roman previously oversaw top-five rushing attacks headed by Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor in San Francisco and Buffalo. It's his development as a passer that will probably determine whether Baltimore can defend its AFC North crown, but for his part, Jackson says he wants to throw the ball 30 times a game. He may need to get his sub-60 percent completion rate up before Roman takes him seriously, though.

The Skinny

• BAL injuries: WR Marquise Brown (questionable, foot)
• MIA injuries: WR Albert Wilson (questionable, hip)
• BAL DFS chalk: RB Mark Ingram (MIA 26th in YPC allowed, 27th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in rushing yards allowed in 2018)
• MIA DFS chalk: none
• BAL DFS tournament plays: QB Jackson (MIA 30th in rushing yards allowed to QBs in 2018), RB Justice Hill (MIA 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RBs)
• MIA DFS tournament plays: TE Mike Gesicki (BAL 22nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• Key stat: MIA's offense was 31st in third-down conversions in 2018 at 30.1 percent; BAL's defense was third, allowing conversions 34.1 percent of the time
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the high 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Ingram rips off 90 yards and a TD in his Ravens debut, while Hill adds 50 combined yards. Jackson runs for 70 yards and a touchdown of his own, but throws for less than 200. Kenyan Drake manages 50 yards. Fitzpatrick does not repeat his season-opening heroics from last year, throwing for 220 yards and scores to DeVante Parker and Gesicki but getting picked off twice. Ravens, 23-17

Kansas City at Jacksonville (+3), 51.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The NFL is often described as a copycat league, but it might be better to think of it as a call and response league. Teams find success doing something and everyone else rushes to respond, either by duplicating it for themselves or figuring out how to shut the successful scheme down. The success that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense had in 2018 was in many ways historic, but it's probably only a matter of time until defenses figure out how to stymie it. The Jags offer a true test in Week 1— they may have fallen off last year for fantasy purposes, but Jacksonville still finished fifth in yards and points allowed, and the unit is littered with players (Myles Jack, Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, and maybe now seventh overall pick Josh Allen) who can change the momentum of a game in a heartbeat. Kansas City also brought in LeSean McCoy to join a backfield headed by Damien Williams, but even reuniting with Andy Reid may not be enough to get a 31-year-old Shady back on track. The Jags made an even bigger change on offense, swapping Blake Bortles out for Nick Foles and breaking poor Jason Mendoza's heart. Foles really just needs to be a caretaker for the team to compete in a seemingly wide open AFC South, but the one time he didn't play in a Reid-derived offense, with the Rams in 2015, he was pretty bad. Fortunately, new offensive coordinator John DiFilippo was QB coach in Philly when Foles carried the team across the finish line to a Super Bowl, so that shouldn't be an issue.

The Skinny

• KC injuries: none
• JAC injuries: LT Cam Robinson (questionable, knee)
• KC DFS chalk: none
• JAC DFS chalk: RB Leonard Fournette (KC 31st in YPC allowed, tied for 29th in rushing TDs allowed in 2018)
• KC DFS tournament plays: QB Mahomes (JAC 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QBs in 2018)
• JAC DFS tournament plays: QB Foles (KC 31st in passing yards allowed in 2018), WR Chris Conley (KC 29th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2018), TE Geoff Swaim (KC 25th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• Key stat: KC was second in red-zone offense in 2018, scoring TDs on 71.8 percent (51 of 71) of their RZ possessions
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the low 90s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Williams gains 70 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 330 yards and TDs to Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins, with the latter topping 100 yards. Fournette rumbles for 130 yards and a score. Foles throws for 230 yards and two TDs of his own, hitting Conley and Dede Westbrook. Chiefs, 30-24

Tennessee (+5.5) at Cleveland, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT

So, was Derrick Henry's finish to 2018 for real? The Titans' offensive line is very good but doesn't appear to be elite (especially with Taylor Lewan suspended). The run defenses he gashed also were middle of the pack with the exception of the Colts, who were also the only ones to keep him out of the end zone in the season's final month. The passing game doesn't show many signs of improving — Corey Davis has yet to make any kind of leap, while Marcus Mariota could find himself looking over his shoulder at Ryan Tannehill if he has a poor start to 2019 — so Tennessee pretty much needs the answer to be yes. Cleveland, on the other hand, has more options than they can shake a stick at. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. gives Baker Mayfield a receiver who can match him in both talent and swagger, while Nick Chubb could become the NFL's next great back, statistically speaking, and render any concern about Kareem Hunt cutting into his workload in the second half moot. If the team is really going to be a Super Bowl contender, though, it's the defense that needs to step up. Twenty-first in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed last year, Myles Garrett and crew need to start producing, or it could be another year if exciting near-misses by the lake. Bringing in veterans Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson should help, but coordinator Steve Wilks, fresh off his flameout as head coach of the Cardinals, has his work cut out for him.

The Skinny

• TEN injuries: LT Lewan (out, suspension)
• CLE injuries: RB Hunt (out, suspension)
• TEN DFS chalk: none
• CLE DFS chalk: none
• TEN DFS tournament plays: QB Marcus Mariota (CLE 28th in rushing yards allowed to QBs in 2018), RB Derrick Henry (CLE 31st in rushing TDs allowed, 28th in rushing yards allowed in 2018)
• CLE DFS tournament plays: WR Rashard Higgins (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018)
• Key stat: TEN ranked second in red-zone defense in 2018, allowing TDs on 44.7 percent (21 of 47) of RZ possessions
• Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Henry pounds out 90 yards and a TD, while Dion Lewis adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Mariota throws for 230 yards and runs in a touchdown of his own. Chubb runs for 80 yards. Mayfield throws for 280 yards and three TDs, with Beckham on the end of two of them and Higgins grabbing the third. Browns, 27-24

Indianapolis (+6.5) at L.A. Chargers, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

I guess the Colts' quarterback luck ... (puts on sunglasses) ran out. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning, but he may not need to be, as the roster around him has become rock solid the last few years. The offensive line, led by Quenton Nelson, is elite, Marlon Mack gives them a solid running game and T.Y. Hilton and the tight ends provide Brissett with reliable targets. The defense also emerged as something other than a doormat, finishing 10th in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed last year. If Brissett is even slightly improved from the last time he stepped in for Luck in 2017, when he stumbled to a sub-60 percent completion rate, that could be enough to keep Indy afloat in the AFC South. The Chargers are also dealing with a key absence, of course, but it's one they saw coming a while ago. It's really hard to fault either side in Melvin Gordon's holdout — with good reason, RBs are increasingly treated as disposable by front offices unless they are in the upper echelon, a la Ezekiel Elliott or Todd Gurley, and Gordon simply may not be in that tier talent-wise. That means the Bolts are probably right to not want to pay him Zeke or Gurley money, and Gordon is probably right to be thinking about his long-term security now, before he gets cast aside by the club. At some point he'll have to return so he can advance his contract — this isn't like Le'Veon Bell skipping out on a franchise tag — but until then, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson can probably handle the job well enough, especially with Philip Rivers giving the offense a secure floor. Of course, if they don't, the front office may have to re-think that whole "we're not negotiating during the season" stance.

The Skinny

• IND injuries: none
• LAC injuries: RB Gordon (out, contract dispute), LT Russell Okung (out, illness), LB Jatavis Brown (doubtful, ankle), K Michael Badgley (questionable, groin)
• IND DFS chalk: none
• LAC DFS chalk: TE Hunter Henry (IND 29th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• IND DFS tournament plays: none
• LAC DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: The starting QB who attempted more passes during the preseason went 10-5-1 in Week 1 of 2018 (this preseason: Brissett 15, Rivers zero).
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Mack pops for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Nyheim Hines adds 50 combined yards. Brissett throws for 230 yards and a TD to Hilton. Ekeler gains 80 combined yards and a receiving score. Rivers throws for 250 yards and a second TD to Henry, but an untimely INT to Pierre Desir sets up Adam Vinatieri for the winning FG. Colts, 23-20

Cincinnati (+9.5) at Seattle, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

No matter what they do, the Bengals just can't stay healthy. If at some point they could get all their key players on the field at the same time for an extended stretch, they might be able to do some real damage, but instead they head into 2019 missing their left tackle and No. 1 wide receiver. Same as it ever was. The Seahawks aren't 100 percent healthy either, but the late addition of Jadeveon Clowney to the front seven suddenly gives a pass rush that finished last year 13th in sacks and 11th in sack percentage a very dangerous aura. Pete Carroll's offense likely will continue to waste the best years of Russell Wilson's career on a run-heavy attack, but considering how bad the Cincy run defense was in 2018 and how little they did in the offseason to improve it, Carroll can be forgiven for this week.

The Skinny

• CIN injuries: WR A.J. Green (out, ankle), LT Cordy Glenn (out, concussion)
• SEA injuries: WR David Moore (out, shoulder), LG Mike Iupati (questionable, foot), DT Jarran Reed (out, suspension)
• CIN DFS chalk: none
• SEA DFS chalk: RB Chris Carson (CIN 29th in rushing yards allowed, tied for 25th in rushing TDs allowed in 2018)
• CIN DFS tournament plays: none
• SEA DFS tournament plays: QB Wilson (CIN 32nd in passing yards allowed, tied for 27th in passing TDs allowed in 2018), RB C.J. Prosise (CIN 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RBs in 2018), WR DK Metcalf (CIN 28th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018)
• Key stat: SEA ranked fourth in red-zone defense in 2018, allowing TDs on 49.0 percent (25 of 51) of RZ possessions
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 30-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Joe Mixon bangs out 80 yards. Andy Dalton throws for 250 yards and TDs to Tyler Boyd and Damion Willis. Carson erupts for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Wilson throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Metcalf and Nick Vannett. Seahawks, 31-17

San Francisco (+1) at Tampa Bay, 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

There are bigger over/under lines this week, but no game has the shootout potential this one does. A Kyle Shanahan offense facing off against a Bruce Arians aerial attack, featuring two defenses that were utterly futile against the pass last year? Let's get stacking! The only worrisome part might be the possibility the two teams simply keep trading turnovers and never actually get into the end zone on offense, but it's not like either team is flush with playmakers on the other side of the ball — though the Niners' cornerback tandem of Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett does have some name recognition and a history of high-level play, if not necessarily recent history.

The Skinny

• SF injuries: RB Jerick McKinnon (IR, knee), WR Trent Taylor (out, foot), C Weston Richburg (questionable, knee), DE Nick Bosa (questionable, ankle), CB Verrett (questionable, ankle)
• TB injuries: WR Mike Evans (questionable, illness), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (out, neck)
• SF DFS chalk: TE George Kittle (TB 28th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• TB DFS chalk: WR Chris Godwin (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
• SF DFS tournament plays: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (TB 30th in passing TDs allowed), RB Matt Breida / Tevin Coleman (TB 30th in rushing TDs allowed in 2018), WR Dante Pettis (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), WR Marquise Goodwin (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
• TB DFS tournament plays: QB Jameis Winston (SF 31st in passing TD allowed in 2018), WR Breshad Perriman (SF 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
• Key stats: These two defenses ranked 31st (SF) and 32nd (TB) in QB rating against in 2018, while the offenses ranked 31st (SF) and 32nd (TB) in giveaways
• Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Coleman leads the San Francisco backfield with 80 combined yards, but Breida adds a TD to his 60 yards. Garoppolo throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns to Kittle, Pettis and Goodwin, with the latter topping 100 yards, but also gets picked off twice. Peyton Barber leads the Tampa backfield with 60 yards and a score. Winston fires up 330 yards and three TDs of his own, finding Godwin twice and O.J. Howard once with Evans hauling in over 100 yards. Buccaneers, 34-31

N.Y. Giants (+7.5) at Dallas, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

While Week 4 may look like the first likely opportunity for fellow first-round pick Dwayne Haskins to take over in Washington, there's no such clear target date for Daniel Jones to take over for Eli Manning. Potentially soft early matchups against Tampa Bay and Washington (Week 3 and 4) and Arizona and Detroit (Weeks 7 and 8, when Golden Tate will be in the lineup) could keep Eli's numbers afloat straight into the Giants' Week 11 bye. The team's record, however, is another question. The offensive line should be marginally better but still doesn't appear to be a strength, though Saquon Barkley could probably run for 1,000 yards behind five of those agility drill dummies (insert Ereck Flowers joke here). The receiving corps is also thin, though Evan Engram ascending to elite status would make it look a lot better. The Cowboys, of course, are coming off a typically no-drama training camp that only featured the one key holdout, but with Ezekiel Elliott now in the fold, they look like they could be legit Super Bowl contenders if a young defense with dominant talent at all three levels comes into its own.

The Skinny

• NYG injuries: WR Tate (out, suspension)
• DAL injuries: DE Robert Quinn (out, suspension)
• NYG DFS chalk: none
• DAL DFS chalk: none
• NYG DFS tournament plays: none
• DAL DFS tournament plays: WR Amari Cooper (NYG 26th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018), WR Randall Cobb (NYG 28th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2018)
• Key stat: DAL ranked 29th in red-zone offense in 2018, scoring TDs on 48.0 percent (24 of 50) of RZ possessions
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DAL, average score 24-19 DAL, average margin of victory seven points. DAL has won four straight meetings by an average score of 26-15
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 90s, 12-13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Barkley racks up 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Manning throws for 230 yards while getting sacked four times, but he does find Sterling Shepard and Engram for scores. Elliott responds with 70 combined yards and a TD in a reduced workload, while Tony Pollard flashes with 60 combined yards on limited touches. Dak Prescott throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Cobb while running in one of his own. Cowboys, 27-21

Detroit at Arizona (+2.5), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I've seen a lot of chatter about how Matthew Stafford and the Lions' passing game are going to have a field day with a Cardinals secondary missing starting corners Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, but that assumes Matt Patricia is going to be motivated to exploit it. Frankly, why would he be? Arizona's run defense was shockingly bad last year and they did little to fix it in the offseason. Watch Dalvin Cook's 85-yard preseason TD gallop on a loop, and then imagine that happening on repeat for the next 16 Cards games. Running the ball has the added benefit of keeping Kliff Kingsbury's air raid offense off the field, just in case it ends up being dangerous — and it may well be. Kingsbury kept things very vanilla in the preseason and Kyler Murray could have growing pains, but this remains a passing attack with a lot of interesting young weapons, plus Larry Fitzgerald, and an inclination to put them all on the field at the same time — and Detroit's pass defense was nearly as bad as Arizona's run defense in 2018. Is Patricia going to want to get into a shootout with these guys on the road in their stadium, or just pound Kerryon Johnson and C.J. Anderson down their throats until they break?

The Skinny

• DET injuries: C Frank Ragnow (questionable, ankle), LB Jarrad Davis (questionable, ankle)
• ARI injuries: RT Marcus Gilbert (out, knee), LB Haason Reddick (questionable, knee), CB Peterson (out, suspension)
• DET DFS chalk: RB Johnson (ARI 27th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2018)
• ARI DFS chalk: WR Christian Kirk (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018), WR Fitzgerald (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2018)
• DET DFS tournament plays: RB Anderson (see Johnson above)
• ARI DFS tournament plays: QB Murray (DET 30th in QB rating against in 2018), WR Michael Crabtree (DET 27th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018), TE Charles Clay / Maxx Williams (DET 26th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• Key stat: Seven different ARI offensive linemen spent time on IR in 2018, and the unit finished 27th in sacks allowed and sack percentage
• Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop

Kerryon races for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Anderson adds 70 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 220 yards and a score to Marvin Jones. David Johnson picks up 70 yards. Murray throws for 240 yards and runs for 50, but gets picked off twice in addition to a TD to Kirk. Lions, 24-10

Pittsburgh (+5.5) at New England, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

These two franchises have a lot in common, truth be told, aside from aging QBs. The names change on the backs of the jerseys but the roles don't, and both teams seem to be able to keep a lid on locker-room issues and handle players who suddenly become problems elsewhere. In Pittsburgh, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are gone, but James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster were already in place before their departure. With two of the Killer B's gone, it might be fair to start asking how long it will be until Big Ben follows them out the door, and whether Mason Rudolph is the guy to step in for him. Of course, the only two B's that matter in New England and Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Brady's done a remarkable job holding off Father Time, but the declining strength in his 42-year-old arm at can't be ignored — he was 23rd in average air yards per completion and 24th in average air yards per attempt last year, nestling between noted gunslingers Alex Smith and Case Keenum in the latter category. Josh Gordon's YAC ability could be key to the offense this season, but it also suggests that the Pats' increased reliable on the running game isn't just Belichick exploiting a weakness he sees in the opposition, but it's maybe him covering for a weakness on his own roster. As is usually the case with Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the twilight of their career, the cliff is coming sooner or later, but we won't know when until he's already over the edge of it.

The Skinny

• PIT injuries: S Sean Davis (doubtful, ankle)
• NE injuries: WR Demaryius Thomas (questionable, hamstring), TE Matt LaCosse (questionable, ankle)
• PIT DFS chalk: none
• NE DFS chalk: none
• PIT DFS tournament plays: RB Conner (NE 30th in YPC allowed in 2018, but second in rushing TDs allowed)
• NE DFS tournament plays: TE Ryan Izzo (PIT 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
• Key stat: NE was fifth in net turnovers in 2018 (plus-10); PIT was 28th (minus-11)
• Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Conner gains 90 combined yards and catches a touchdown. Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and a second TD to JuJu. Sony Michel bangs out 60 yards and a score, while James White adds 60 combined yards. Brady throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Gordon and Julian Edelman. Patriots, 27-20

Green Bay (+3) at Chicago, 46.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

This NFC North rivalry had been mostly one-sided lately in the Packers' favor, but that may have changed in 2018. The Bears' defense reclaimed its Monsters of the Midway heritage following the addition of Khalil Mack, but Aaron Rodgers might not be the same guy who's tormented Chicago fans for so long, either. Rodgers' career numbers in this matchup (16-5 in 21 starts with a 45:10 TD:INT, 67.2 percent completion rate and 105.9 QBR) are outstanding, but last season's visit to Soldier Field in Week 15 went off the rails quickly — it was the first time all year he failed to throw a TD pass, and his 68.9 QB rating was his worst performance of the campaign. The franchise quarterback is now 35 and has taken a pounding over the years behind a too-often shaky offensive line, and while veteran tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari are both healthy this time around, it's fair to wonder how many big wins and miracle comebacks Rodgers has left in him. As far as Chicago's offense goes, having Mitchell Trubisky take a big step forward in his third season would be great for their Super Bowl aspirations, but they may not need him to be more than a caretaker if third-round pick David Montgomery is the real deal. Fun bit of trivia: since 2015, teams have traded up in the draft during the first two days (Rounds 1-3) only six times to select a running back. It happened twice in 2019, with the Bears grabbing Montgomery and the Rams moving up to take Darrell Henderson. The other four RBs teams felt they couldn't live without and traded up to get? Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon. That's pretty good company, and at the very least it signals a commitment from the team in question to give that back a prominent role from the jump.

The Skinny

• GB injuries: none
• CHI injuries: TE Trey Burton (questionable, groin)
• GB DFS chalk: none
• CHI DFS chalk: Bears DST (first in scoring defense, first in takeaways, tied for third in sacks in 2018); RB Tarik Cohen (GB 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RBs in 2018)
• GB DFS tournament plays: none
• CHI DFS tournament plays: TE Adam Shaheen (GB 27th in DVOA vs. TEs in 2018)
• Key stat: CHI led the NFL in QB rating allowed last season at 72.9
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 GB, average score 29-19, average margin of victory 13 points
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Aaron Jones finds 70 scrimmage yards. Rodgers throws for 280 yards and a TD to Davante Adams. Montgomery makes a splashy debut, rushing for 90 yards and a score, while Cohen adds 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Trubisky throws for 240 yards and a second score to Shaheen. Bears, 27-16
 

2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS