This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was costly if like me you used the Chiefs (25 percent owned), the Chargers or the Bears. That's roughly 30 percent of pools that got bounced.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Bengals | 35.70% | 525 | 84.00 | 5.71 |
| PATRIOTS | Giants | 25.70% | 975 | 90.70 | 2.39 |
| Cowboys | JETS | 14.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 3.40 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 7.50% | 205 | 67.21 | 2.46 |
| CHIEFS | Texans | 3.90% | 220 | 68.75 | 1.22 |
| CHARGERS | Steelers | 3.70% | 272.5 | 73.15 | 0.99 |
| Redskins | DOLPHINS | 2.30% | 177.5 | 63.96 | 0.83 |
| Seahawks | BROWNS | 1.80% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.86 |
| Falcons | CARDINALS | 1.40% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.61 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 1.20% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.43 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, the Pats are the easy call given their likelihood of winning and their ownership levels. The question is whether to use the Ravens (35.7 percent owned), the Cowboys (14.6) or the Chargers (3.7.)
A Ravens win/Cowboys loss happens 84*23 percent of the time = 19.32. A Cowboys win/Ravens loss 12.32 percent of the time. The ratio of 19.32/12.32 = 1.57. That's your risk ratio.
But in our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, if the Ravens win and Cowboys lose, 15 people are down with the Cowboys plus another 10 on other teams, leaving 75 remaining. $1000/75 = $13.33, i.e., your equity in the pool.
If the Cowboys win and Ravens lose, 36 people are out with the Ravens plus 10 on other teams, leaving 54 remaining.
Last week was costly if like me you used the Chiefs (25 percent owned), the Chargers or the Bears. That's roughly 30 percent of pools that got bounced.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Bengals | 35.70% | 525 | 84.00 | 5.71 |
| PATRIOTS | Giants | 25.70% | 975 | 90.70 | 2.39 |
| Cowboys | JETS | 14.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 3.40 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 7.50% | 205 | 67.21 | 2.46 |
| CHIEFS | Texans | 3.90% | 220 | 68.75 | 1.22 |
| CHARGERS | Steelers | 3.70% | 272.5 | 73.15 | 0.99 |
| Redskins | DOLPHINS | 2.30% | 177.5 | 63.96 | 0.83 |
| Seahawks | BROWNS | 1.80% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.86 |
| Falcons | CARDINALS | 1.40% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.61 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 1.20% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.43 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, the Pats are the easy call given their likelihood of winning and their ownership levels. The question is whether to use the Ravens (35.7 percent owned), the Cowboys (14.6) or the Chargers (3.7.)
A Ravens win/Cowboys loss happens 84*23 percent of the time = 19.32. A Cowboys win/Ravens loss 12.32 percent of the time. The ratio of 19.32/12.32 = 1.57. That's your risk ratio.
But in our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, if the Ravens win and Cowboys lose, 15 people are down with the Cowboys plus another 10 on other teams, leaving 75 remaining. $1000/75 = $13.33, i.e., your equity in the pool.
If the Cowboys win and Ravens lose, 36 people are out with the Ravens plus 10 on other teams, leaving 54 remaining. $1000/54 = $18.52. The ratio of 18.52/13.33 = 1.39. That's your reward ratio.
In this case the risk of taking the Cowboys over the Ravens outweighs the reward. Now let's compare the Ravens to the Chargers.
A Ravens win/Chargers loss is .84*.27 = 22.68%. A Chargers win/Ravens loss is .16*.73=11.68%. The ratio of 22.68/11.68 = 1.94
But if the Ravens win and Chargers lose, only four people go down along with 12 from other teams. That leaves 84 people or 1000/84 in equity: $11.90.
Chargers win and the Ravens lose, 48 people go down, leaving 52 for an equity total of $19.23. The ratio of 19.23/11.90 is 1.62.
So the Ravens trump the Chargers too.
As for the Chargers vs. the Cowboys, I won't go through all the math, but they're nearly dead even, i.e., go with your gut if you've used up the Ravens already.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
They're the chalk every week and for good reason, though keep in mind weather could be a factor this week against the Giants. I give them an 89 percent chance to win this game.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens haven't been great defensively, but the Bengals are weak on both sides of the ball, and the game is in Baltimore. I give the Ravens an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Dallas Cowboys
Sam Darnold is back so maybe the Jets will show a pulse, but the Cowboys, coming off two straight losses, won't overlook this game, and are the stronger team on both sides of the ball. I give the Cowboys a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Los Angeles Chargers
It's a toss-up between them and the Cowboys. The Chargers might be facing a third-string QB, but the Steelers defense is nasty, and Pittsburgh will probably have the home crowd on its side for this game. I give the Chargers a 73 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Green Bay Packers - The Lions are tough, especially in defense, and Davante Adams is still banged up.
Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes is gimpy, the offensive line can't pass protect, the defense is poor, and the Texans can shoot it out with them.
Washington Redskins - Tempting as it might be to use them here, I would not trust any of their three possible QBs on the road, playing for a new coach.
