This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was mediocre on its face (7-6-1), but it was a strong 7-6-1. The push (the first of the year, oddly) was on the Buccaneers who would have covered but for the Seahawks missing a field goal, sending it to overtime and winning the coin toss, and two of the losses were the Colts (right side all game despite losing their QB, would have covered if Adam Vinatieri hits an easy FG) and the Redskins (only took them because I presumed Case Keenum was starting.) I won my best bet (Ravens) and went 4-0-1 in the Super Contest.
This week, I especially like the Chiefs, Cardinals, Bears and Cowboys. I'm sketchiest on the Dolphins and Rams.
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Chargers -1 at Raiders
The Chargers always seem to turn it on in the second half, and they've gotten some key players back. But laying a point on the road against a solid Raiders team is a bridge too far. Give me the Raiders.
Raiders 24 - 23
Chiefs -3.5 at Titans
I'm presuming Patrick Mahomes will be back, in which case I love the Chiefs who have improved defensively the last few weeks. Lay the wood.
Chiefs 31 - 23
Bills +3 at Browns
I don't think much of the Bills, but they shouldn't be getting the full three against a dysfunctional Browns team that fails a new test every week.