This article is part of our Survivor series.
After Week 10's bloodbath, last week was unusually quiet with only two percent of entrants knocked out on the Panthers. (The Vikings had a serious scare, but prevailed in the end.)
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNS | Dolphins | 46.40% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 7.90 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 23.60% | 425 | 80.95 | 4.50 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 8.80% | 275 | 73.33 | 2.35 |
| BEARS | Giants | 5.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.57 |
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 4.50% | 207.5 | 67.48 | 1.46 |
| Lions | REDSKINS | 3.10% | 170 | 62.96 | 1.15 |
| TEXANS | Colts | 1.80% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.61 |
| PATRIOTS | Cowboys | 1.80% | 250 | 71.43 | 0.51 |
| Raiders | JETS | 1.20% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.50 |
| BILLS | Broncos | 1.20% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.41 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 0.60% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.24 |
| Ravens | RAMS | 0.50% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.19 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are only two 80-percent favorites, the Browns and Saints, and I'd take New Orleans if I still had them given their lower ownership. The next tier down are the Steelers, Bears and Pats, though virtually no one has the Pats available at this point.
Keep in mind at this point in the season, the polling numbers are noisy as they include second-chance pools that started later in the year. Moreover, if there are only a handful of people left in yours, you'll want to look at who they've used and who they still have available. If more than half are likely to be on the Browns, you should consider the Steelers (assuming
After Week 10's bloodbath, last week was unusually quiet with only two percent of entrants knocked out on the Panthers. (The Vikings had a serious scare, but prevailed in the end.)
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNS | Dolphins | 46.40% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 7.90 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 23.60% | 425 | 80.95 | 4.50 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 8.80% | 275 | 73.33 | 2.35 |
| BEARS | Giants | 5.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.57 |
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 4.50% | 207.5 | 67.48 | 1.46 |
| Lions | REDSKINS | 3.10% | 170 | 62.96 | 1.15 |
| TEXANS | Colts | 1.80% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.61 |
| PATRIOTS | Cowboys | 1.80% | 250 | 71.43 | 0.51 |
| Raiders | JETS | 1.20% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.50 |
| BILLS | Broncos | 1.20% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.41 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 0.60% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.24 |
| Ravens | RAMS | 0.50% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.19 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are only two 80-percent favorites, the Browns and Saints, and I'd take New Orleans if I still had them given their lower ownership. The next tier down are the Steelers, Bears and Pats, though virtually no one has the Pats available at this point.
Keep in mind at this point in the season, the polling numbers are noisy as they include second-chance pools that started later in the year. Moreover, if there are only a handful of people left in yours, you'll want to look at who they've used and who they still have available. If more than half are likely to be on the Browns, you should consider the Steelers (assuming you've used the Saints and Patriots.)
My Picks
1. New Orleans Saints
The Panthers are in free fall right now, and the Saints are still one of the best teams in the league and playing at home. Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees seem to be up to speed, too. I give the Saints an 81 percent chance to win this game.
2. Cleveland Browns
The Browns should crush the Dolphins at home, but they're 46 percent owned, and it's not hard to see a Freddie Kitchens-coached team coming out sloppy, especially after a big win against the Steelers 10 days ago. I give the Browns an 81 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
No one has them available, but the Patriots at home against a Jason Garrett-coached team is a good bet. I give the Patriots a 72 percent chance to win this game.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
They're on the road, and they could be missing some key offensive players, but the trip is short, and the Steelers defense is one of the better ones in the league. I give the Steelers a 72 percent chance to win this game.
5. Tennessee Titans
They're home and coming off a bye against a Jaguars team that can't stop the run and that just got destroyed by the Colts. The Titans have been better ever since Ryan Tannehill took over too. I give them a 68 percent chance to win this game.
6. Atlanta Falcons
After two decisive road wins, we have to take the Falcons seriously. They're home against a Tampa team that's capable of an upset but can't defend the pass and usually commits a devastating turnover at the worst time. I give the Falcons a 67 percent chance to win this game.
7. Chicago Bears
The Bears offense is terrible, but this is a home game against one of the worst defenses in the league and a team that can't protect its quarterback or open up holes for its tailback. I give the Bears a 64 percent chance to win this game.
8. Buffalo Bills
I think they're a league average team playing roughly another league average team, but they're at home and getting a 1:00 pm ET start against a Mountain Time Zone team that's traveling for the second straight week. I give the Bills a 63 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders and Baltimore Ravens
The Texans lost to the Colts the first time, and that was with J.J. Watt healthy, the Lions are starting Jeff Driskell on the road, the Raiders play an early game on the east coast against a doormat that's woken up the last two weeks and the Ravens are on the road against a slightly above average team.
