This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was another bloodbath with the Panthers (53 percent), the Eagles, Jets and Cowboys going down.
Let's take a look at Week 14:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Redskins | 42.90% | 750 | 88.24 | 5.05 |
| TEXANS | Broncos | 25.70% | 425 | 80.95 | 4.90 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 13.00% | 825 | 89.19 | 1.41 |
| BROWNS | Bengals | 6.60% | 375 | 78.95 | 1.39 |
| JETS | Dolphins | 2.70% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.82 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 2.40% | 375 | 78.95 | 0.51 |
| Titans | RAIDERS | 1.50% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.64 |
| Steelers | CARDINALS | 1.00% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.43 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 0.90% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.39 |
| BUCCANEERS | Colts | 0.60% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.25 |
| Ravens | BILLS | 0.50% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.15 |
| Cowboys | BEARS | 0.40% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.16 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are five big favorites this week, the Vikings, Packers, Texans, Browns and Eagles in that order. The key will be determining who has what teams available in your pools and positioning yourself accordingly.
My Picks
1. Minnesota Vikings
They're coming off a short week and face a divisional rival, but they're at home, only 13 percent owned (though the polling numbers are noisy at this point) and draw a team playing its third-string quarterback. I give the Vikings an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
They're 43 percent owned, but that number is noisy, and they should roll at home against a Dwayne Haskins-led Redskins squad. I give the Packers an 87 percent chance to win this game.
3. Houston Texans
Last week was another bloodbath with the Panthers (53 percent), the Eagles, Jets and Cowboys going down.
Let's take a look at Week 14:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Redskins | 42.90% | 750 | 88.24 | 5.05 |
| TEXANS | Broncos | 25.70% | 425 | 80.95 | 4.90 |
| VIKINGS | Lions | 13.00% | 825 | 89.19 | 1.41 |
| BROWNS | Bengals | 6.60% | 375 | 78.95 | 1.39 |
| JETS | Dolphins | 2.70% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.82 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 2.40% | 375 | 78.95 | 0.51 |
| Titans | RAIDERS | 1.50% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.64 |
| Steelers | CARDINALS | 1.00% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.43 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 0.90% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.39 |
| BUCCANEERS | Colts | 0.60% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.25 |
| Ravens | BILLS | 0.50% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.15 |
| Cowboys | BEARS | 0.40% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.16 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are five big favorites this week, the Vikings, Packers, Texans, Browns and Eagles in that order. The key will be determining who has what teams available in your pools and positioning yourself accordingly.
My Picks
1. Minnesota Vikings
They're coming off a short week and face a divisional rival, but they're at home, only 13 percent owned (though the polling numbers are noisy at this point) and draw a team playing its third-string quarterback. I give the Vikings an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
They're 43 percent owned, but that number is noisy, and they should roll at home against a Dwayne Haskins-led Redskins squad. I give the Packers an 87 percent chance to win this game.
3. Houston Texans
They're probably flying high after their win over the Patriots, making Denver a team they could overlook, but the disparity at quarterback between Deshaun Watson and Drew Lock is pretty wide. I give the Texans an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
They lost to the Dolphins last week, so anything is possible for them, but the Giants are weak in just about every phase, and the Eagles are at home and getting healthier. I give them a 76 percent chance to win this game.
5. Cleveland Browns
I don't trust them without Myles Garrett and facing Andy Dalton. In fact, if this were Week 5, they'd be in my notable omissions area. But most people don't have a lot of choices, and the market likes the Browns as much as the Eagles. I give the Browns a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. New England Patriots
You don't have them available, and if you did, you probably have other, better options too. I give the Patriots a 64 percent chance to win this game.
7. New York Jets
I don't like the Jets in this spot. The Dolphins look like a team that's having fun, giving great effort, and the Jets can just got killed by the Bengals last week. But this is a home game, and the weather could be tough on the team from Miami. I give the Jets a 62 percent chance to win this game.
8. Baltimore Ravens
I don't like the Ravens here, either. They're a great team, but playing a December game in Buffalo is brutal, and Josh Allen can scramble pretty well too. I give the Ravens a 60 percent chance to win this game.
9. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been a little better of late, but this is a match-up between roughly equal teams that just happens to be on Atlanta's home field. There's also added volatility from Ron Rivera's dismissal, something that's hard to handicap. I give the Falcons a 56 percent chance to win this game.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Cardinals have to play better than last week, and Pittsburgh's offense is terrible. But the Steelers have a top-five defense, and the Cardinals defense is one of the worst in the league. I give the Steelers a 56 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers
The Titans have to travel to the West Coast against a league-average Raiders team that plays much better at home, the Cowboys are reeling and face a tough Bears defense, the Saints are missing two key offensive linemen and get a loaded 49ers team while the Chargers on the road against a non-doormat is a non-starter.
