This article is part of our Survivor series.
Roughly 20 percent of pools got knocked out last week with the 49ers, Raiders and Titans, but that estimate gets rougher each week as the percentage-owned numbers get more distorted.
Let's take a look at Week 16:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | Jaguars | 29.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 7.28 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 28.10% | 400 | 80.00 | 5.62 |
| BRONCOS | Lions | 16.30% | 270 | 72.97 | 4.41 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 7.00% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 1.30 |
| COLTS | Panthers | 4.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.03 |
| Chiefs | BEARS | 3.70% | 235 | 70.15 | 1.10 |
| Texans | BUCCANEERS | 2.40% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.94 |
| Steelers | JETS | 2.30% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.92 |
| 49ERS | Rams | 1.50% | 270 | 72.97 | 0.41 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 1.50% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.42 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 1.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.26 |
| DOLPHINS | Bengals | 0.90% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.43 |
| Saints | TITANS | 0.70% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.29 |
| REDSKINS | Giants | 0.50% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.22 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, ownership percentages this time of year depend more on the teams your competitors have left than what's posted above.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are coming off extra rest and need this game to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It's a road game, but the Browns seems to be in disarray, tuning out their head coach. I give the Ravens an 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners laid an egg last week against the Falcons, but I expect them to be more focused against a division rival. The Rams
Roughly 20 percent of pools got knocked out last week with the 49ers, Raiders and Titans, but that estimate gets rougher each week as the percentage-owned numbers get more distorted.
Let's take a look at Week 16:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | Jaguars | 29.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 7.28 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 28.10% | 400 | 80.00 | 5.62 |
| BRONCOS | Lions | 16.30% | 270 | 72.97 | 4.41 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 7.00% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 1.30 |
| COLTS | Panthers | 4.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 1.03 |
| Chiefs | BEARS | 3.70% | 235 | 70.15 | 1.10 |
| Texans | BUCCANEERS | 2.40% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.94 |
| Steelers | JETS | 2.30% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.92 |
| 49ERS | Rams | 1.50% | 270 | 72.97 | 0.41 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 1.50% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.42 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 1.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.26 |
| DOLPHINS | Bengals | 0.90% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.43 |
| Saints | TITANS | 0.70% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.29 |
| REDSKINS | Giants | 0.50% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.22 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, ownership percentages this time of year depend more on the teams your competitors have left than what's posted above.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are coming off extra rest and need this game to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It's a road game, but the Browns seems to be in disarray, tuning out their head coach. I give the Ravens an 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners laid an egg last week against the Falcons, but I expect them to be more focused against a division rival. The Rams essentially ended their season with a no-show in Dallas, and I don't expect much resistance from them. I give the 49ers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have injuries on defense, but they're at home and should run roughshod over the Cardinals terrible defense. I give them a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have an easy home matchup against a Lions team that does virtually nothing well. I give them a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have played well of late, knocking off the Saints and 49ers on the road. But this is a letdown game, and Gardner Minshew showed last week in Oakland he hasn't packed it in. I give the Falcons a 74 percent chance to win this game.
6. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts looked awful Monday night and have only six days to get ready for the Panthers, but Carolina has rookie QB Will Grier making the first start of his career. I give the Colts a 73 percent chance to win this game.
7. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are at home, but it'll be filled with Oakland fans. That said, the Raiders are missing key players up and down the roster, and Los Angeles is actually relatively healthy. I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs look good on both sides of the ball, but going to Chicago for a frigid night game could be an equalizer. I give the Chiefs a 68 percent chance to win this game.
9. New England Patriots
The Patriots are back home, but the Bills are a tough team, and New England's offense has been terrible of late. I give the Patriots a 58 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, Washington Redskins
The Vikings are facing a tough division rival and could be missing Dalvin Cook, the Steelers can't throw and face a tough run defense on the road, the Texans are on the road against a surging Bucs team, the Saints are on the road against a rugged Titans team with its back to the wall and the Redskins are quarterbacked by Dwayne Haskins.
