This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We split our four picks in the Week 15 tickets, with both player-based bets -- Chris Carson anytime touchdown and Seahawks win (+120) and Chris Godwin 100+ yards and Buccaneers win (+174) -- hitting while the team-based ones -- Saints -7.5 and over 46.5 (+195) plus Rams and Cowboys to both score 25 (+340) -- coming up short. Fantasy players are probably more interested in the player-based ones since a lot of their research is in that realm too, but that doesn't mean we should ignore the team ones altogether.
Eagles and Cowboys both score 20 points (+124)
The regular total of 46.5 is down one point since it opened, with the over sitting at -105 versus -115 for the under. However, we don't need to hit 47 for this best to hit, we just need both teams to reach 20, a total they've each reached in their past two games. Obviously that small sample shouldn't tell us that much, especially since the same thing applied before their Week 7 game in Dallas, a 37-10 Cowboys victory. Neither team's defense is good, by any means, but their offenses are able to put points on the board, so asking each to reach 20 shouldn't be too much of a reach.
Ravens -9.5 and over 40.5 points (+125)
Not a ton of payoff here, but the Ravens still need to win to keep their hopes alive for the no. 1 overall seed, and they're looking to avenge a 40-25 Week 4 loss to the Browns in Baltimore. The Ravens are favored by 10.0 with a 49.5-point total, so while we're parlaying a lower spread (barely) and total, we're still getting better than even money. Another possibility is having the Ravens give 7.5 points while still going over 40.5, which pays +105.
Jacob Hollister 50+ receiving yards and Seahawks win (+198)
Hollister has only reached 50 receiving yards once this season, an eight-catch, 62-yard, one-touchdown outing in Week 10 against the 49ers, but he's now facing a Cardinals defense that's allowed the third-most catches, most receiving yards and most touchdowns despite the eighth-most targets to tight ends this season. If you don't want to rely on the receiving yards since the Seahawks don't usually pass much and they're likely to be ahead (they're 8.5-point favorites), a Hollister touchdown in a Seahawks win is +200.
Marlon Mack touchdown and Colts win (+145)
The Colts are 6.5-point home favorites against the Panthers, who come in having allowed 26 touchdowns (23 rushing) to running backs this season, seven more than the next-highest team (and nine more if we only look at rushing touchdowns). Mack is expected to be heavily used now that he's healthy again, and with the Colts expected to win, the game script is there for him to reach the end zone. If you have really high expectations for Mack, rushing for 100 yards in a Colts win pays +198, while scoring two touchdowns in a win is +750.
Joe Mixon to rush for 100+ yards and Bengals win (+270)
The Bengals are 1.5-point road favorites in Miami, and the win actually might be the tougher part of this bet. No team has allowed more rushing yards this season than the Dolphins, and we can't just blame volume from teams running it out on them since they usually lose, as their 4.58 yards per carry allowed is the seventh-highest in the league. Meanwhile, Mixon is expected to continue getting as much work as he can handle after he had 146 yards in a 27-19 loss to the Browns in Week 14 and then 136 last week against the Patriots in a 34-13 loss. If he can get 23 and 25 carries in those losses, respectively, there should be plenty of opportunities in a game the Bengals could actually win.
