This article is part of our Survivor series.
What a disaster. I took the Colts last week and got knocked out of two of my three Survivor pools. The 49ers, and to a lesser extent the Eagles, were the other plausible favorites to lose, while the Ravens, Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers and Bills all sailed through with relative ease. I outlined my unhappiness with the Colts here, and I'll just excerpt a portion of it:
Honestly, the biggest reason I'm salty is I lost in Survivor with the Colts. It seems absurd after the fact to have trusted my season to Philip Rivers on the road in a new uniform – has any player in league history single-handedly tossed away more NFL games? And my first thought after Indy lost was going forward I should pick Survivor before looking at the point spread. But then I remembered I set my own line for this game at 9.5, my biggest on the board. If there was a faulty narrative, it was that the Colts offensive line would plow through a Jaguars defense that had traded away its best players, and Rivers wouldn't be asked to do much. Reality does not care about the stories you carry in your head, and that's a truth that goes far beyond football, though few will take that sentence to its logical conclusion for obvious reasons.
That out of the way, let's take a look at Week 2:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Jaguars | 18.30% | 360 | 78.26 | 3.98 |
| 49ers |
What a disaster. I took the Colts last week and got knocked out of two of my three Survivor pools. The 49ers, and to a lesser extent the Eagles, were the other plausible favorites to lose, while the Ravens, Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers and Bills all sailed through with relative ease. I outlined my unhappiness with the Colts here, and I'll just excerpt a portion of it:
Honestly, the biggest reason I'm salty is I lost in Survivor with the Colts. It seems absurd after the fact to have trusted my season to Philip Rivers on the road in a new uniform – has any player in league history single-handedly tossed away more NFL games? And my first thought after Indy lost was going forward I should pick Survivor before looking at the point spread. But then I remembered I set my own line for this game at 9.5, my biggest on the board. If there was a faulty narrative, it was that the Colts offensive line would plow through a Jaguars defense that had traded away its best players, and Rivers wouldn't be asked to do much. Reality does not care about the stories you carry in your head, and that's a truth that goes far beyond football, though few will take that sentence to its logical conclusion for obvious reasons.
That out of the way, let's take a look at Week 2:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Jaguars | 18.30% | 360 | 78.26 | 3.98 |
| 49ers | JETS | 15.80% | 290 | 74.36 | 4.05 |
| BUCCANEERS | Panthers | 13.70% | 365 | 78.49 | 2.95 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 9.80% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.88 |
| STEELERS | Broncos | 9.30% | 310 | 75.61 | 2.27 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 9.20% | 375 | 78.95 | 1.94 |
| CARDINALS | Football Team | 7.50% | 267.5 | 72.79 | 2.04 |
| BROWNS | Bengals | 3.90% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.15 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As in Week 1, there's no real pot-odds play here with no team at 20 percent ownership and six at more than nine percent. Once again, just pick the team you think is most likely to advance.
My Picks
1. Tennessee Titans
I know I'm going back to the well facing the team that knocked me out last week, but Ryan Tannehill, oddly enough, is much better than Philip Rivers at this stage of their respective careers, and the Titans defense is better than that of the Colts. I give the Titans an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
I don't love using teams on the road against good defenses, but the Chiefs offense makes it look so easy, and the Chargers offense isn't good. I give the Chiefs a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady looked shaky last week, and his receivers are banged up, but the Bucs get a home game against a soft defense. I give the Buccaneers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger looks healthy again, and the Steelers defense is nasty. The Broncos are solid defensively, but asking Drew Lock to win in Pittsburgh is a tall order. I give the Steelers a 76 percent chance to win this game.
5. Green Bay Packers
It was nice to see the old Aaron Rodgers for one game at least. The Lions have some offensive firepower, especially if they get Kenny Golladay back, but the Packers are at home and probably have the better defense. I give the Packers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. San Francisco 49ers
As shaky as the 49ers looked in the second half, they face one of the league doormats this week, albeit on the road. They're also thin at receiver and star tight end George Kittle is also at less than 100 percent. Still, it's the Jets, so I give the 49ers a 73 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Cleveland Browns: Unless Baker Mayfield's play substantially improves, the Browns could lose to anyone.
Arizona Cardinals: The Football Team might actually have a good defense, and the Cardinals are still a work in progress.
Chicago Bears: They're similar to the Browns, only without the star running backs.
Buffalo Bills: Beating the Jets at home doesn't move the needle. The Dolphins looked terrible last week, but they were a tough out in the second half of last season and playing at home.
