Surviving Week 6

Surviving Week 6

This article is part of our Survivor series.

Last week was hilarious – the Patriots, Vikings and Ravens were all dead to rights, but somehow prevailed, keeping virtually every team alive, as the Bucs and Cowboys cruised to easy wins. 

 Let's take a look at Week 6:

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss
RamsGIANTS37.0%562.584.915.58
COLTSTexans36.2%437.581.406.73
ChiefsTEAM11.8%30075.002.95
STEELERSSeahawks3.7%20567.211.21
BuccaneersEAGLES3.5%27573.330.93
PackersBEARS2.0%20567.210.66
CowboysPATRIOTS1.7%187.565.220.59
BengalsLIONS1.0%17062.960.37
BillsTITANS1.0%22068.750.31
DolphinsJaguars***0.8%18064.290.29

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com 
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London

The Rams and Colts stand apart, both in winning percentage and usage. The question is whether the Chiefs, the next best choice, make sense from a pot-odds perspective. 

A Rams win/Chiefs loss is .85*.25 = 21.25%. A Chiefs Win/Rams loss is 11.25%. The ratio of 21.25/11.25 = 1.89. 

In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, if the Rams win/Chiefs lose, 12 are out on the Chiefs and 11 on other teams, for a total of 23. 100-23 = 77, $1000/77 = $12.99. 

If the Chiefs win/Rams lose, 37 are out on the Rams plus 11 on other teams for a total of 48. $1000/52 = $19.23. The ratio of $19.23/$12.99 = 1.48. 

The risk ratio is 1.89, reward only 1.48. That

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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