This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was good, as I went 12-4, won my best bet (Buccaneers) and went 3-2 to close out the SuperContest. I've been running well of late on the season's final week – 42-21-1 over the last four seasons, but I checked the previous four and was only 31-31-2 from 2014-2017.
This week, I especially like the Steelers who are getting way too many points in Kansas City, probably due to recency bias as the Chiefs blew them out in Arrowhead a few weeks ago.
Raiders +5.5 at Bengals
I think this is roughly the right line, but I'll lay the wood here after the Bengals had a virtual bye last week while the Raiders were in a war for five quarters Sunday night.
Bengals 31 - 17
Patriots +4 at Bills
My first instinct was to take the Bills, but their offense has been inconsistent of late, and the Patriots are built for cold weather smashmouth football. Take the points.
Bills 20 - 19
Eagles +8.5 at Buccaneers
The Eagles have done most of their damage against the league's weaker teams, but the Bucs are thin at receiver, and their secondary is only okay. Give me the points – the Eagles offensive line just needs to hold up reasonably well.
Buccaneers 23 - 20
49ers +3 at Cowboys
The Cowboys have the league's best roster, but they seem to lack heart, beating up on bad teams, then no-showing at home against Arizona two weeks ago,