This article is part of our FanDuel PGA series.
Sedgefield Country Club (7,127 yards, par-70)
$1,116,000 and 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner
The Korn Ferry Tour Finals don't exactly sound like the most desirable destination, but that's where players will be headed if they fail to snag a spot in the top 125 of the FedExCup standings by the end of this week's regular season finale in Greensboro, North Carolina. While a majority of the sport's household names enjoy a brief relaxation period before the playoffs commence, hearts will be pounding through the chests of hopefuls at Sedgefield Country Club on Sunday afternoon, as the fate of entire PGA Tour careers hang in the balance. Qualifying for the upcoming Northern Trust is one thing, but securing a card for the entirety of the 2019-20 season without having to deal with conditional status is the main goal for the handful of entrants currently on the bubble. To make matters even more stressful, scattered thunderstorms are a possibility at some point during all four rounds.
Key Stats to Victory
P4: 400-450 efficiency
Proximity: 150-175 yards
Birdie or better percentage
Precision is the name of the game at Sedgefield Country Club, as a tree-lined layout requires accuracy off the tee. However, players really separate from the pack by focusing heavily on their second shots. Strokes Gained: Approach has been a primary indicator of success here in Greensboro, while GIR percentages land about six points higher than the average PGA Tour venue. The scorecard includes a whopping eight par-4s that measure between a compact 400-to-450 yards, so plenty of short irons will be summoned from the bag as proximity from 150-175 yards falls under our key stats to victory. The bermuda greens at Sedgefield tend to run quite quick, but forecasted rain should aid in keeping the speed down.
FanDuel Value Picks
Webb Simpson, $11,900 - Simpson is no Dustin Johnson or Brooks Koepka, but he certainly plays like it on the grounds of Sedgefield CC, and this notion is reflected in his price tag as the betting favorite this week. The 17th-ranked player in the world is ninth in birdie-or-better percentage over his last 24 rounds and 15th in SG: Approach on the season. Simpson has finished T8 or better in six of his last nine trips to Greensboro, including a win here at the Wyndham in 2011. The flat stick is en fuego as Simpson has gained at least 6.8 strokes putting in each of his last three measured events, a span that includes runner-up honors at both the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and the RBC Canadian Open.
Collin Morikawa, $11,600 - This seems like an extremely inflated price for someone with only eight total career PGA Tour starts, especially with the potential for a brief hangover stage following his maiden victory at the Barracuda Championship. Still, Morikawa deserves a look again this week as he paces the entire field in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green and P4: 400-450 efficiency over his last 12 rounds. The 22-year-old gained an astonishing total of 19.6 strokes on approach shots alone en route to additional top-4 finishes at the John Deere Classic and 3M Open prior to his win in Reno.
Billy Horschel, $11,000 - Horschel is a collective 33-under-par throughout his past three appearances at Sedgefield CC, but he's also 11th in GIR percentage over his last 24 rounds. The former Florida Gator rebounded from a missed cut at the Open Championship by notching a top-10 in Memphis last week, where he gained strokes in every measured subcategory for the third time in four starts dating back to the U.S. Open.
Joaquin Niemann, $10,600 - The 20-year-old was likely a bit burned out en route to a missed cut at the Open Championship after hopping on a chartered flight from the Quad Cities to Northern Ireland on the heels of four consecutive top-25s from the Travelers Championship to the John Deere Classic. Niemann was able to spend this past week away from competition, however, so he should be tuned back up for the regular season finale. The Chilean has gained an average of 4.4 strokes from tee to green over his last five tournaments and he ranks 11th in proximity this season.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Martin Laird, $9,700 - Back-to-back top-10s at the Barbasol and Barracuda Championships have Laird positioned inside of the top-125 in the FedExCup standings, ascending to 10th on Tour in GIR percentage this season as well. He ranks second in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds and 11th in SG: Putting on fast bermuda greens over his past 36. Additionally, Laird has missed the cut on just one occasion in eight career attempts at Sedgefield.
Kevin Streelman, $9,300 - Streelman has gone without a single missed cut since March while rising to fourth in GIR percentage over his last 24 rounds. The 40-year-old is 19th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and has gained an average of 5.7 strokes in this metric throughout his past five tourneys. He's 5 for 5 at Sedgefield CC and currently paces the PGA Tour in rough proximity.
Andrew Landry, $8,200 - Landry finally putted quite well – rather than horribly – at the John Deere Classic and it translated to a third-place finish, but this result was sandwiched by missed cuts at the Barracuda Championship and 3M Open. His ownership should be minuscule thanks in part to the aforementioned MCs, but Landry is second in P4: 400-450 efficiency and 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds.
Brice Garnett, $8,100 - Bouncing back from three consecutive missed cuts in June, Garnett has placed T18-T37-T23-T17 since the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He's gained an average of 2.1 strokes putting over his last five tournaments and has also finished T20 in each of his last two performances at the Wyndham Championship.
Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
The anxiety that comes with spending way up for names like Simpson and Morikawa might cause a handful of gamers to second guess their decisions near the top, but this field lacks a single soul from the top 15 of the Official World Golf Ranking. Although he earned runner-up honors during his lone appearance at Sedgefield in 2013, I'll be fading Jordan Spieth at $11,500, as he ranks 111th in SG: Approach over his last 12 rounds and 114th in proximity over his past 24.