This article is part of our Frozen Fantasy series.
Mathew Barzal rang up his third five-point game of his rookie season on Friday night. His 58 points in 56 games put him in a three-way tie for 14th in league scoring. With Alexander Ovechkin and Anze Kopitar.
Wow. No, double wow.
I'll keep going. Barzal is tied with Steven Stamkos for eighth on the assists list (42). He's one behind Sidney Crosby. And he's the just fifth player in the last 30 years to tally multiple five-point games as a rookie. Who's on THAT list?
Just Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Peter Forsberg and Pat Lafontaine.
That's a who's-who of the Hall of Fame. Two of those guys are among the NHL's top-five of all time.
Mathew Barzal is a fine young player. He and John Tavares are perhaps the best one-two in the NHL right now. But he's not in the class of those guys I mentioned above. Not now and probably not tomorrow.
I'm buying Barzal in long-term keeper leagues (you saw my story last week), but looking at selling in other formats. And so should you. Hear me out.
Barzal is charging toward a point-per-game season. He should win the Calder Trophy. But expectations will be really high in Year Two and he's going to be clutching his stick a whole lot tighter. The league will catch up to him and he'll have a hard time replicating his rookie production.
And then there are the John Tavares off-the-Island murmurs. It might be wishful thinking in
Mathew Barzal rang up his third five-point game of his rookie season on Friday night. His 58 points in 56 games put him in a three-way tie for 14th in league scoring. With Alexander Ovechkin and Anze Kopitar.
Wow. No, double wow.
I'll keep going. Barzal is tied with Steven Stamkos for eighth on the assists list (42). He's one behind Sidney Crosby. And he's the just fifth player in the last 30 years to tally multiple five-point games as a rookie. Who's on THAT list?
Just Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Peter Forsberg and Pat Lafontaine.
That's a who's-who of the Hall of Fame. Two of those guys are among the NHL's top-five of all time.
Mathew Barzal is a fine young player. He and John Tavares are perhaps the best one-two in the NHL right now. But he's not in the class of those guys I mentioned above. Not now and probably not tomorrow.
I'm buying Barzal in long-term keeper leagues (you saw my story last week), but looking at selling in other formats. And so should you. Hear me out.
Barzal is charging toward a point-per-game season. He should win the Calder Trophy. But expectations will be really high in Year Two and he's going to be clutching his stick a whole lot tighter. The league will catch up to him and he'll have a hard time replicating his rookie production.
And then there are the John Tavares off-the-Island murmurs. It might be wishful thinking in Leaf-land, but there's lots of talk that Tavares will wait out the Isles and enter free agency. And that he'll land in Toronto. And Barzal – who won't be 21 until later in May – will assume the role of top pivot.
Yes, pigs can fly. That would be amazing, but it's all but impossible. But I will be happy to be wrong.
Great seasons are tough to repeat. Take a look at Patrik Laine. He's on-pace to match his rookie totals almost exactly. Ditto Auston Matthews, albeit his numbers have been impacted by injury. There has been no jump forward and there might not be next year.
Now, all these guys – Barzal included – will have several very good seasons and eventually see growth in their offense. But fantasy owners need to be ruthless and emotionless in their evaluation of talent.
It's about return on investment. Sometimes you should just sell high, take the ribbing from fellow owners, and enjoy the haul. Someone is going to seriously – and I mean seriously – overpay. And that is to your benefit, if you play your cards well.
Now, let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.
Ian Cole, D, Pittsburgh (2 percent Yahoo! owned) – Cole missed 20 days in January, but has come back rejuvenated. He has five points (one goal, four assists) in his last six games. Cole's overall stats are weak and he has no history of offensive success. But hot is hot, so hitch your wagon to him until his game dries up again.
Darren Helm, LW/RW/C, Detroit (1 percent Yahoo! owned) – Helm missed six games in January with a leg injury, but he's been on fire since his return. Helm has six points (two goals, four assists) in his last five games. He remains a PK-specialist, but he's really clicking with Justin Abdelkader and Frans Nielsen right now. Short-term streaming of streaky players might be a decent option for those of you desperate to make up ground. That is, as long as you have enough transactions available to use that strategy.
Eddie Lack, G, New Jersey (1 percent Yahoo! owned) – Roll the dice. Lack has talent – probably more than Keith Kinkaid – so he might just pressure for playing time while Cory Schneider remains sidelined. Schneider hasn't started skating, so you could get a few starts out of Lack before he's jettisoned back to the AHL. At this point, even an abysmal start won't really hurt your cumulative GAA or save percentage. But a couple solid starts (read: wins) could make a difference.
Brock Nelson, LW/C, NY Islanders (3 percent Yahoo! owned) – Nelson rang up a hat trick Friday night, courtesy of the Isles' second top-line center, Mr. Barzal. The two have real chemistry and Nelson is riding a four-game, seven-point scoring streak (four goals, three assists). That's worth grabbing off the wire.
Harri Sateri, G, Florida (14 percent Yahoo! owned) – Sateri saw his four-game winning streak snapped Friday night, but before that, he had bricked up the twine tent against the Isles, Sabres, Wings and Canucks. Sure, just one (Isles) is clinging to a playoff spot, but wins are wins. And Sateri's confidence is high. The only caveat is that James Reimer is back from IR, so Friday's loss might be the trigger to switch netminders. After all, the kitties are more than happy to play the hot hand. But Sateri may deliver a few more wins before his day is done.
Nate Schmidt, D, Las Vegas (8 percent Yahoo! owned) – This fun-loving defender is the one who got away from the Caps. And the fans rubbed that in last Sunday when they showed up in D.C., en masse, with GR88 Nate signs. Schmidt was obviously touched, but not so much that he stopped scoring. He is currently on a four-game, four-point streak heading into Sunday's game at home against the Flyers. And his 25 points put him in the league's top-40 from the blue line. He should be in a regular rotation in all but the smallest of leagues. But he isn't, which means he can be yours.
Derek Stepan, C, Arizona (26 percent Yahoo! owned) – Very quietly, Stepan is on track for his fifth consecutive 50-point season. Sure, his minus-18 is a black hole. But if you aren't worried about that category, you should check Stepan out. He has two-straight two-point games and eight points (two goals, six assists) in his last 10 games. Yes, center is deep. But the Yotes will play out the season loose and cocky – it's for next year, not this one. Stepan may surprise over the final 25-30 games.
Pavel Zacha, LW/C, Washington (2 percent Yahoo! owned) – Zacha snapped a 17-game goal drought Thursday night, so why is he here? Simple. That drought will have other owners ignoring his five points (one goal, four assists), including three on the power play, in his last four games. Zacha has been getting chances, so a burst could be in progress. Did you see the goal Thursday? It was a sweet, back-to-the-net, between-the-legs backhander on the power play. Those hands are special.
Back to Barzal.
He's an amazing talent. He'll pick up loads of points. But assets are assets. And the only way to get ahead in fantasy (or the stock market) is to set a threshold to force movement.
Crystalize your gains, optimize those assets, and then build out the next set of studs. That's what I plan to do.
Until next week.
