Odds and Ends: Leftover Stats From Week 13

Another week of fantasy hockey and some food for thought ...

.922

That's Sergei Bobrovsky's save percentage this month, 11th best in the league and a huge improvement over October (.873) and November (.896). That's the good news, but that the bad news is that Bobrovsky tends to have pretty weak Januarys (.910) and Februarys (.909) in his career before picking it up in the spring, usually in time for a playoff run. Fellow Russian and Florida resident Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled just as much as Bobrovsky this season, offering few bright spots for their teams in the sunshine state.

666

That's Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher and Phillip Danault's combined SAT, the highest in the league and just ahead of Carolina's Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. For the second consecutive season, Tatar and Gallagher find themselves at the top of this category, and it's not a coincidence they're also having the best season of their careers. Their problem is that they don't have elite finishing ability and don't have any elite teammates. At 3.28 GF/GP, this is the best offense the Habs have assembled this decade. Gallagher and Tatar are both on pace for 30-goal seasons and are still buy-low candidates. Gallagher's particularly valuable in leagues that count peripherals with his elite high-volume shot totals.

50.0

That's the Sharks' expected goals for, the lowest in the league, according to hockey-reference. This indicates that the Sharks are one of the league's worst offensive teams, which is hard to fathom because Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns patrol their blue line, and they still boast at least two or three 30-goal scorers up front. The good news is that their expected goals against (61.6) is second lowest in the league, once again implying that they'd be a much better team — perhaps still a strong contender — had their goaltenders performed at the league average rate. For what it's worth, Natural Stat Trick has the Sharks 13th in xGF and 26th in xGA, so there's still some debate about what's exactly ailing the Sharks, but it is clear they're not generating a lot of scoring chances and allowing too many goals in general.

35

That's the drop in points from last year for Nikita Kucherov, who is on pace for 93 points this season. Everything is down across the board — power-play points, shooting percentage, shots, ice time — and part of that is expected, but you also get fewer scoring chances when the puck gets turned over a lot and your own goalie isn't very good. Kucherov is still on pace to finish in the top 20 in league scoring, but he is by far the most disappointing top-10 forward this season in fantasy. At this point, you might as well keep him and see if the Lightning pick it up in the second half rather than selling him at a low. It seems like the Lightning have figured out this is a marathon, not a sprint, but you hope that when it becomes a sprint, the Lightning can flip the switch. 

+28

That's the Avalanche's actual goals scored minus expected goals scored, the highest mark in the league entering Sunday's games, according to hockey-reference. That means the Avs are converting a lot more of their scoring chances than the league average, and that perhaps a slowdown in scoring could be expected in the second half of the season. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are all-world talents so their numbers should always skew toward above average, but Cale Makar, Joonas Donskoi, Andre Burakovsky and Matt Calvert are shooting higher than normal percentages. Boston (+24) and St. Louis (+19) round out the top three, while Detroit (-32), L.A. (-24) and Vegas (-21) round out the bottom three.

-22

That's Leon Draisaitl's plus-minus this month, the worst in the league and eight more than second-worst Oscar Klefbom. This, even though Draisaitl is still averaging a point per game this month. Ten of his 13 points have come on the power play, and it's astonishing how poor his even-strength play has been. Part of it has been careless turnovers (36 giveaways between Draisaitl and Connor McDavid this month), but you wonder if maybe Dave Tippett's leaning on Draisaitl a little too much, causing fatigue to set in and maybe having an impact on his ability to get back on defense when Draisaitl cheats up the ice. Still, such poor play is tanking Draisaitl's fantasy value, and is falling out of the top-five conversation. If the Oilers don't rectify this, they won't make the playoffs. 

0.05

That's the increase in Johnny Gaudreau's P/GP rate since Geoff Ward took over. Their team performance has improved, but the coaching chance hasn't sparked Gaudreau's production, and he remains on pace for his worst performance in three seasons. He remains a frustrating perimeter player who seems to be playing with less confidence than before. With seemingly no catalyst to give Gaudreau the boost he needs, with so little to offer in terms of peripheral stats, perhaps its time owners start looking to sell Gaudreau for a more productive or well-rounded player.