Frozen Fantasy: Leverage is Everything

Player tracking technology. I'd totally forgotten about it until I heard Sportsnet 590's Jeff Marek talking about it Friday on Hockey Central at Noon. By next season, we'll have a flood of data.

And fantasy chaos.

Don't get me wrong – I'm a data geek. But there's a limit. And I think it's going to make youth-obsessed fantasy owners manic.

You think it's hard to trade a 30-year-old now? Just wait.

Tracking technology will theoretically show how players have slowed as they've aged.

Gulp.

Marek's comments centered on Pekka Rinne and Carey Price. Both have really struggled lately. Right now, we have the eye test, but soon, we'll have data.

And what if Price's data suggests he has slowed down? Keeper owners will freak. You and I both know owners who obsess about the next shiny thing. And panic about losing money on their big investments.

Everything will be installed at some point this year. There will be 14-16 antennae in the rafters, four cameras to support the tracking, chips placed in shoulder pads and pucks with sensors.

It'll be fun. It'll get called edutainment. But like all data, it requires context and analysis to use it properly. It may be great for real-life player assessment, but fantasy? Like everything else, I fear it'll be used to validate existing perceptions – good and bad.

But does it really matter? Hmmmm… I say get to know it and think about how you can use it before your competitors do. Then use it to your advantage.

Leverage really is everything in this great game. I'll talk about how I'm going to use the data after we take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Tyler Bozak, C/RW, St. Louis (3 percent Yahoo! owned) – Bozak, Robert Thomas and Alexander Steen (below) have been on fire lately – and none of them are owned in more than three percent of leagues. That needs to change – these linemates are more than hot. Thomas has eight points (four goals, four assists) in seven games heading into Saturday and Bozak has eight - including five goals - in the same span. Bozie is actually on a two-game, four-point streak heading into Saturday's game against the Rangers. He's flirting with a possible 20-goal season, which would be just the second of his career. Best of all, he brings multi-positional qualification, so you can add FOW from the wing spot. I've always liked Bozak, even when he was miscast as a top-line pivot in Toronto. He's worth a look.  

Jesper Fast, RW, NY Rangers (1 percent Yahoo! owned) – Fast is flashing his skills on the Rangers' second line right now. Yes, that means he's skating with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Sweet. And in his last two games, he has four points, including a trio of assists against the Avs on Tuesday night. Pick up Fast, fast – Panarin is a stud and points should come by osmosis.

Barclay Goodrow, LW/RW/C, San Jose (16 percent Yahoo! owned) – Goodrow is in uncharted territory right now. Despite the Sharks' awful play, he's actually on a career pace. And in a big way. Goodrow already has a career-high 20 points in 43 games. And six of those (one goal, five assists) have come in the last seven outings heading into weekend play. He also has 15 PIM, 53 faceoff wins, eight blocks and 13 hits in those same seven. Goodrow is tracking toward a 35-point, 110-PIM, 170-hit season. Surely that's helpful in more complex leagues.

Adam Larsson, D, Edmonton (4 percent Yahoo! owned) – I never thought I'd ever put this guy on any fantasy list. I feel bad for him – it's not Larsson's fault that Peter Chiarelli traded Taylor Hall for him. The big defender is a stay-at-home type who's never put up more than 24 points. And he won't match that this year. But Larsson has three assists, 11 hits and eight shots in his last four games. He has topped 250 hits in two of his last three seasons and averaged 143 blocked shots over that same period. Larsson can really help in specialty leagues if he can keep scoring even a little. But only if you are rotating guys through your last roster spot.  

Mike Smith, G, Edmonton (27 percent Yahoo! owned) – Smith is hot and thank goodness – the Oil have needed something. They are in a dogfight in the Pacific and Mikko Koskinen has been – in a word – awful with just one win and a 5.34 GAA in the last 14 days. And just three wins in the last 30 days. Yikes. But over the last week, Smith has bricked things up with three wins, 2.34 GAA and .934 save percentage. The former Flame seems to have stabilized the Oil's net and perhaps their playoff chances. And maybe yours, if you give him a chance.

Alexander Steen, LW/RW, St. Louis (1 percent Yahoo! owned) – We both remember when Steen was a 60-point winger. Those were the days. His game has pretty much fallen off the map, but he's closing in on 1,000 games (currently at 992). And he's on a three-game, five-point (two goals, three assists) streak heading into weekend play. Steen might help, that is until he gets hurt again. Because he will.

Cam Talbot, G, Calgary (12 percent Yahoo! owned) – It's kind of ironic Talbot and Mike Smith are on the same list. The two swapped jerseys on Jul. 1, looking for redemption in new uniforms. And both are hotter than the so-called starters in each Alberta city. Talbot has allowed two or fewer goals in five of his last six starts (and six of seven games). He's started three of the Flames' four games since the calendar flipped and won them all. And since Christmas, he has a 1.58 GAA and .951 save percentage. Talbot 's play might just be his best since his Rangers days. David Rittich is still the starter, but has struggled. You could pick up a few more wins in the short term if you scoop Cam up.

Tyler Toffoli, LW/RW, Los Angeles (12 percent Yahoo! owned) –Toffoli is on pace for 50 points and he's especially hot right now. Try three goals, three assists and 17 SOG in his last seven games heading into weekend play. Two of those points have come on the power play. At this point in the season, the wire is pretty slim, so you need to sift out guys like Toffoli for short-term use. I don't really like him any more than you do, but he'll help both of us.

Back to leverage.

Smart fantasy owners should prepare for this influx of data now. My gut says lesser-informed owners in your leagues will get twitchy with their veterans if they think they're slowing down. 

But you and I both know that fantasy leagues are still won with a core of strong veteran stars, not squads filled with kids (and their inconsistency).

Even if they've lost a tenth of a step. And especially as the game tightens up in the second half.

I plan on using the data to pay less to stock up on veterans for my playoff runs. And maybe even overstate the value of my tradable young chips.

Bah-hahaha. All is fair in love and war.

And fantasy hockey.

Until next week.