1.  
QB  KC
Pass Att
577
Pass Yds
4733
Pass TD
41
Pass Int
15
YPA
8.2
Rush Att
53
Rush Yds
316
Rush TD
2
Rush Avg
6.0
The Patrick Mahomes era begins this year in Kansas City after the team traded Alex Smith to the Redskins in the offseason. Mahomes was decent in his lone start Week 17 last season, but the bigger question this year is what the Chiefs offense will look like. Coach Andy Reid took the cautious approach with Smith his first four years in Kansas City, averaging a mere 32 passes per season more than 20 yards downfield. Last year, though, Smith was unleashed, attempting 53 such passes in an explosive offense. (Ironically, he had fewer interceptions (5) than he averaged over the "cautious" period (7).) Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is gone, replaced by Eric Bieniemy, but either way, it's still Reid's show. The 6-2, 225-pound Mahomes certainly has the arm for a vertical game. And he has plenty of weapons, starting with Tyreek Hill, who might be the league's fastest man. On the other side is new arrival Sammy Watkins, who can also stretch the field and has a bit more bulk than Hill. Then there's Travis Kelce, one of the best tight ends in football, and Kareem Hunt, who led the league in rushing as a rookie last year. All that talent might encourage Reid to be more aggressive, rather than content to ask little of Mahomes besides taking care of the ball. If Mahomes' inner gunslinger is allowed to emerge, drafting the unproven quarterback will pay off for fantasy owners.
2.  
QB  HOU
Pass Att
534
Pass Yds
4311
Pass TD
29
Pass Int
11
YPA
8.1
Rush Att
70
Rush Yds
488
Rush TD
4
Rush Avg
7.0
It's not often a quarterback has a breakout season as a rookie. And Watson didn't just break out last year, he was in the MVP discussion before suffering a torn ACL midseason. Through Week 8, Watson was tied for first in the league in TD passes, second in YPA and first in quarterback rushing, leading the league's most prolific offense at 30.7 points per game. Watson showed rare poise in the pocket - he was arguably the best QB against blitzes last season. He led the league in YPA (9.5) in blitz situations and was second in completion percentage (65.6 percent) to Drew Brees, posting an NFL-high 134.5 passer rating, nearly 22 points better than the next best. What's more, the 22-year-old Watson had seven touchdowns and no interceptions against blitzes. Watson was good on downfield passing, ranking fifth in completion percentage on attempts beyond 20 yards (min. 20 attempts), but he also threw five interceptions. And if there's an area in which he can improve it's accuracy. Had he qualified, Watson would have ranked 20th in completion percentage, just ahead of Eli Manning, and his 3.9 interception percentage would have been third highest. Watson was highly accurate in college, so it's reasonable to think he can improve in his second year. Wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are back for Watson, assuming he's available. That, of course, is the biggest concern. But the Texans are confident Watson will be ready for Week 1, and the quarterback said in mid-July that he expects to be a full-go for the start of training camp.
3.  
QB  IND
Pass Att
613
Pass Yds
4711
Pass TD
35
Pass Int
13
YPA
7.7
Rush Att
31
Rush Yds
155
Rush TD
1
Rush Avg
5.0
Luck missed all last season with a shoulder injury that was much worse than suspected. He underwent surgery in January 2017 for a torn labrum initially injured in 2015. Most labrum injuries occur in the front of the shoulder, but Luck had the less common variety, a posterior tear, which complicated his recovery. He eventually practiced in October for a couple weeks before being shut down again. The offseason nearly came and went without Luck throwing a football, but he finally did so during minicamp in mid-June. There's now a prevailing expectation from the organization that he won't have limitations throughout training camp and is expected to be out there Week 1. At that point, Luck will be working with a new head coach in Frank Reich, the Eagles' offensive coordinator last season. T.Y. Hilton is the only proven wideout on the roster, though the team has two capable tight ends in Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The Colts allowed 56 sacks last season, which doesn't bode well for Luck's health, and his days of 60-plus rushes are probably over too, as the team likely will make a concerted effort to shield him from unnecessary punishment.
4.  
QB  GB
Pass Att
581
Pass Yds
4566
Pass TD
31
Pass Int
6
YPA
7.9
Rush Att
41
Rush Yds
244
Rush TD
2
Rush Avg
6.0
A broken collarbone in Week 6 last year ruined what started as a possible MVP season for Rodgers. In his first five games, he completed 66.7 percent of his passes and was on pace for more than 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. The Packers were 4-1 but went 3-8 the rest of the way with Brett Hundley taking over. Rodgers returned, at less than 100 percent health, for Week 15 with the Packers clinging to playoff hope, but he was shut down after the loss, a season wasted. Entering this season, Rodgers is without his favorite receiver, the aging Jordy Nelson, but he gained tight end Jimmy Graham, who is expected to be used more as a wideout like he was in New Orleans and gives Rodgers the best TE red-zone target he's had. Outside playmaker Davante Adams and possession slot receiver Randall Cobb return, but then it's a lot of unknowns, as the Packers hope a reliable target emerges from the next seven spots on the WR depth chart, including three rookies drafted in Rounds 4-6. Joe Philbin is back too as offensive coordinator, a position he helmed from 2007 to 2011 when Rodgers won his first MVP award. Rodgers is another year older - he says he wants to play until he's 40 - and durability is a bit of concern, though last year was the first time he missed games since his first broken collarbone in 2013.
5.  
QB  CLE
Pass Att
598
Pass Yds
4689
Pass TD
33
Pass Int
15
YPA
7.8
Rush Att
33
Rush Yds
166
Rush TD
1
Rush Avg
5.0
The first overall pick in the draft, Mayfield enters training camp as the backup to Tyrod Taylor. How long that remains the hierarchy is uncertain, despite coach Hue Jackson's proclaimed belief in Taylor. Perhaps Jackson is timid about another rookie starter after last year's debacle with DeShone Kizer, but Jackson has won a single game in two years, so if there's a coach in America who's apt to play the QB who gives him the best shot at winning, it's Jackson. Mayfield was highly accurate in college, has a strong arm and throws an excellent deep ball. At 6-1, 215, he doesn't have ideal height, but his batted-pass stats were excellent in college and, according to scouts, he processes information quickly and has the mobility to escape pressure. The Browns retooled their skill positions this offseason, adding Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway to a wideout group that hopes to finally have Josh Gordon for a full season. They also signed Carlos Hyde and drafted Nick Chubb to join Duke Johnson in the backfield. Better still, the offense now belongs to coordinator Todd Haley, who occupied the same role in Pittsburgh the last six years. Jackson will no longer call plays, and that will benefit whoever is under center.
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